Feeder Cattle

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Anonymous

While today's limit down move in the May feeder cattle looks nasty, it's actually the best thing could happen to feeder cattle. Like having to go get a sore tooth pulled, the pain of it is well worth the end result. What I'm getting at is this. The weekly charts on feeder cattle show a clean 5 wave decline forming from the December peak at $85.60. The current decline is labeled a wave C decline. Once complete, I believe that the entire bear market that began at $92.75 in June of '01 will be complete. Now, that is not to say that there is still not some downside to this move. However, for cattle buyers, this is the time to have long hedge strategies in place for cattle that will be bought from August through December. If you would like additional information on feeder cattle futures and options or how they can benefit you in procuring cattle, please feel free to contact me at anytime. Be sure to visit <A HREF="http://www.shootinthebull.com" TARGET="_blank">www.shootinthebull.com</A> for commentaries posted daily on the live cattle and feeder cattle markets.

Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

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Anonymous

I wouldn't begin to play the cattle futures I'll leave that to the pros like Hilleary Clinton.But I have noticed a sharp increase in cattle prices at the local auction barns.Chris do you think this is just seasonal or could this be a long term uptrend?Do you have any thoughts on hogs?

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Anonymous

>More likely than not, it's just a seasonal tendency. If you look at the 5 and 15 year seasonal charts, you will see that feeder cattle prices tend to peak in the first week of April followed by a sharp decline into the 1st week of May. With the major wave count from the weekly charts, it appears that move to $72.20 basis the May contract could wind up the bear market that began in June of 2001. So, anticipate a pretty sharp drop between now and the next 4 weeks. As far as hogs go, I look for June to stall between $$57.00 made yesterday and possibly as low as $56.00. I then look for a sharp rally back to $61.00 to $63.00. The lean hog index has turned back up and gaind a little over $.80 in the past 2 days. Anytime you would like to talk, I'd be more than glad to. You can follow my commentaries daily at <A HREF="http://www.shootinthebull.com" TARGET="_blank">www.shootinthebull.com</A>. Thanks for taking the time to write. I hope this helps. Chris

I wouldn't begin to play the
> cattle futures I'll leave that to
> the pros like Hilleary Clinton.But
> I have noticed a sharp increase in
> cattle prices at the local auction
> barns.Chris do you think this is
> just seasonal or could this be a
> long term uptrend?Do you have any
> thoughts on hogs?



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