EPD's vs Actual Weights

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mncowboy

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Is there a point when the actual weights become for credible then the EPD's while looking at a bull crop from the same ranch, same breed, same sire, same feed, same environment? For instance while looking through a bull catalog, I've noticed a group from the same sire where bull A has a higher weaning weight then bull B, but bull B's weaning weight EPD is higher. Do EPD's receive or deserve much credibility at all while looking at virgin bulls who have sired registered/reporting calves yet?
Thanks in advance,
:cowboy:
 
I'm confused. If they have the same sire where does bull A and bull B enter in. The virgin bull with offspring is also a bit of a poser for me.
 
Red Bull Breeder":6kn09i6b said:
Bull is only Half the equation. A and B have different momma's.

Right, and I get that but do you put 75% of your decision based on the EPD's and 25% on the weights taken, or do you in some cases put more value in the actual weights?

Long of the short, how important are EPD's to you (people reading this) and how important is the actual weights? I only ask because there's times when you'll see bull offerings where the EPD's are strong but the animals performance doesn't seem to match, or in others the EPD's aren't as impressive but their ADG was in the top of their group.
 
Was one more agressive at the feed bunk/creep feeder? That might be something. What breed are you looking at? I know Angus & maybe Hereford you can do the 50K DNA test. If they had that test, Id go way more on EPD than accuall weight. If no test, I guess Id still go off epd.
 
:nod: You can't trust numbers, just look around and you can see what folks will do for a dollar.
 
Epd's can be a useful tool if you trust the breeder or breeders doing the reporting. I am very skeptical when it comes to epd's and I am probably in the minority here. Went and looked at a bull a year or so ago. Everything this guy had was low bw. However when he described his process immediately after birth he said I watch the cow through my binoculars until she has the calf then I slip up behind her and tag it and get out of there and leave em alone. So my thought is when do you get the weight. Apparently an estimate is close enough if you've been around cattle all your life! So epd's are only as accurate as the one doing the reporting. People in general are just too greedy to put too much stock in epd's. With low bw being all the rage right now I can't believe that people aren't reporting their calves a little lighter than they may be. Now I know some are honest. I guess if I was going to put much trust in epd's it would be a high use high accuracy bull that others I know have used and give me some info on their calves.
 
I'd agree with the post above. Sure u can get some epds just from pedigree. Reported weights go into that to create an epd? I'm not super smart on this, and I'd agree that some people can fudge actual weight & epds. Wouldn't it be easier to fudge an actual weight than an epd?
 
Dad and I had a discussion over this issue this weekend as we were going through a sale catalog. While we both value EPD's lately I can't always seem to get him to look more into other factors too. Even within our own bulls for sale I had an example for him as our lowest birth weight EPD of the 4 is 0.7. So I used this example, while I have every bit of confidence that bull with a 0.7 BW EPD is going to be a good calving ease bull for someone, especially since we know both his sire and mother are very good with that his actual BW was 83# while the lowest actual BW of the 4 bulls is 76# and that bull has a 2.9 BW EPD. While 2.9 is still below the Hereford breed average and both of those 2 bulls have pretty good actual BW you can't tell me that just because 1 bull has a lower EPD that means he's going to be a better light BW bull than the 1 with the actual lighter BW.

On the flip side of that conversation I gave him another example, what if someone had a bull with a BW EPD at or below breed average but his actual BW was 100# while another bull had a higher BW EPD (let's say a 5+) but an actual BW of 82#. Which bull would you choose for BW and calving ease and he said probably the one with the lower BW EPD. My argument was if the bull himself was 100# at BW I don't care what his EPD is I'd have concerns that his actual BW is going to be a trait passed down to his progeny. But also I do hold some value in the BW EPD because actual BW can be affected by the environment the cow is in too. That bull probably has a high BW EPD for a reason and that's because somewhere in his pedigree there are some trends of higher actual BW's and those traits are also a part of the bull's genetic makeup.

Ideally I like to see a bull whose actual BW and BW EPD are in sync as I have more faith in a bull with a mid 80's actual BW and a BW EPD of at or below breed average actually holding true to being a good calving ease bull than I do someone with a higher BW EPD in the 5+ range with an actual BW in the 80's claiming they'll be a good calving ease bull. One thing that always worries me is how accurate is the actual BW# because you have to trust that the breeder is being honest with that number and isn't just fudging it to make it look better. That's why buying from a reputable breeder who uses proven genetics takes out a lot of the risk and guess work when you can feel confident that what they are selling you is accurate.
 
I have never had much faith in EPDs because they are a calculated, comparative estimate based on base premise that if you test across enough herds you eliminate management and environment. I don' accept that premise.

Actual performance indexed against herd average is a far better indicator IMHO. A bull with 105 weaning index is 5% above the average in that herd and a bull with 115 is 15% above the average. An animal with average performance in my herd is likely to have average performance in yours - barring significant differences in management. I think you can compare in herd indexes between herds with as much or more confidence than using EPDs.

You also have to familiarize yourself with the management of the herd of origin. Irrigated alfalfa, irrigated pastures, heavy grin feeding all impact those average values. Animals that come from similar programs to yours will do better in your program.

The Animal Scientists argue that in herd performance can easily be manipulated to favor one or more individuals. However, EPDs are based upon the credibility and integrity of the breeders submitting accurate data. I know with certainty that there are and have been so called reputable breeders (in many breeds) who never owned a set of scales, but submitted birth weaning and yearling weights to their breed's genetic evaluation programs. How much value is there in those EPDs?

Consider EPDs and in herd indexing, both with a grain of salt. Learn what works for you and look for genetic sources of integrity and honesty.

Just my thoughts.
 
I don't believe any of today's EPD's too much money involved in them.
Started as a tool forty years ago today people are buying paper.
Figures don't lie but liars figure. I want to see the sire in the pasture
and his progeny not a piece of paper.
 
mncowboy":3fi9ai45 said:
Red Bull Breeder":3fi9ai45 said:
Bull is only Half the equation. A and B have different momma's.

Right, and I get that but do you put 75% of your decision based on the EPD's and 25% on the weights taken, or do you in some cases put more value in the actual weights?

Long of the short, how important are EPD's to you (people reading this) and how important is the actual weights? I only ask because there's times when you'll see bull offerings where the EPD's are strong but the animals performance doesn't seem to match, or in others the EPD's aren't as impressive but their ADG was in the top of their group.
What you should really be looking at on EPD's is how accurate they are. If a bull had a -5 BW, with 12% acc. there is no telling what the birth weight is going to be without a real world weight.
But on the other hand if a bull has a +2 BW, and 55% acc. you can put a little more faith in the EPD's, because they have some real world numbers to back them up.
If a bull has low acc. put more on the real world numbers, if high acc. you can judge more with the EPD's, but don't ever over look real world numbers...frankly because they're real.......
 

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