EPDs on virgin bulls

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Yes. It is an estimate. Secondly, the "E" stands for "Expected". A whole bunch of them don't live up to their expectations. :) I happen to own one of those myself.
 
Interesting you should bring this up. It is the single biggest reason that I put no faith in epd information.
 
OK--I understand now. I actually like the statistics but agree that it's only best guess and even afterwards with a proven herd sire, it's not a guarantee.
 
Some bulls will throw some really nice calves, and some bad ones too. Consistency is where it is at. Some folks are going to blame it on the cow. They keep that one with the awesome calf and then the next year it is a bad one.

A gentle bull that throws consistent calves with a high mortality (I don't want to pull a calf) is what I am after. EPDs are a tool.

I'd prefer to look at the sire and dam as well as their products.
 
Your best estimates are going to come from a bull that has a lot of offspring under its belt but even this is biased because only a biased sampling of the calves are made since most producers do not go to the trouble of reporting the information. Therefore it is usually only the purebred producers who do the reporting and many of these pamper their animals much more than a regular producer can afford to so the numbers are inherently skewed. Nonetheless, this is all you have to go on and it is a good tool as long as you recognize it as what it is - an estimate - and not what some people seem to think it is - a guarantee.
 
EPD's are the most comprehensive tool available to evaluate how an animal will BREED. Actual data is useless as it can be manipulated with environment and pampering as someone has already mentioned. Ratios are a little better, but they only tell you how the animal performed in that contemporary group and cannot be used across contemporary groups, much less the entire breed. The EPD model is the only available tool that encompasses, pedigree data, sibling data and ratios to attempt to remove environment and give a genetic breeding value. As an animal has more progeny, the progeny data will have more weight on the calculation and the pedigree and performance data will become less relevant.

Since most bulls sold in the US are virgin bulls, the EPD's are only as accurate as the program they come from (and unfortunately in this situation, bigger is better due to the ability to design a good contemporary group) with a max of about .35. While this is not extremely accurate, it is still the best estimate of how that animal will BREED, and at the end of the day, that is what matters. Because of the low accuracy, you still need to look at the animal and select for animals that are structurally sound and have the phenotype that you desire, but to say that EPDs are useless is a simple misunderstanding of the data and its uses.
 
Wow guess i need to pay more attention to them. I would much rather learn about the breed i am going to use. Look at different animals study there pedigrees. Find the cattle you like and look for common ancesters.
 
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