End of an Era

[Dave]

I knew that the population here had declined based on what there use to be in the way of businesses. So I looked up the 1920 census. In 1920 the population of the county was 18,026. Today it is about 16,000. In 1920 this district of the census listed 388 people. Now our post office claims it serves 130 people. Homesteaders figured out they couldn't survive. The gold mines shut down. Then the logging and saw mills shut down. Other than the ranchers and a few farmers those with any get up and go, got up and left.

 

[chevytaHOE5674]

In 1920 the population of this county was 12,428..... in 2020 it was 5,816. Recent trend is every 10 years the population declines about 14%.

 

[TexasJerseyMilker]

One of the few good things about the nutty government of Oregon is they sure protect their farm and forest land with the urban growth boundary law.


"What is an Urban Growth Boundary? Under Oregon law, all cities must create and maintaina Urban Growth Boundary ("UGB"), identifying where city growth may occur within the next 20years. In order for a city to annex land into the city limits, that land must first be included withinthe UGB. Land inside the UGB supports urban services such as roads, water and sewer systems,parks, schools and fire and police protection. UGBs are a tool to protect rural farm and forestland by limiting sprawl."

They increase urban density instead of spreading it over the countryside.


Even county zoning laws have rules such as only 1 house is allowed on 80 acres of forest land.

Population- the whole state of Oregon has only has 4 million people plus a few 100,000. The county where my cabin is has 20,000 people and 2/3rd of it is Natl Forest. The county next to it where we live has 60,000.

 

[Travlr]

I used to wouldn't have believed it would be this way in my lifetime.
Even several more isolated communities are seeing considerable growth with intrastate roads being extended.

We've had an average of an extra billion people population growth every 11/12 years for decades.

My family has never had more than two children per couple since 1900 when the human population was 1.5ish billion. So even though our genetic footprint has doubled every generation, our contribution to population growth has remained zero. We have a kid to replace us and a kid to replace our spouse... and that's it. And we've never missed the kids we never had.

 

[Travlr]

Exactly!! And if 'near' a metro area, that sub 600ac area can be expanded to 2-3X . Subdivisions near hot metro areas are now huge and not shy about offering 700-1000+ ac ranch owners big $$ to sell out. You can't get 10 homes on an acre most places but you you can get nine 1/10 acre home sites to an acre and each new one built valued at $300K plus.

The local govts are all for it too.
A single acre of pasture previously valued at that high $1100 will now generate county property taxes on those 9 new homes for whatever the tax rate is on $270,000. 100 acres of new homes=$27million taxable value (minus homestead exemption)for a county that WAS getting whatever $110,000 tax valuation was. (minus ag exemption)

Yeah? But is that a good thing? A lot of any increase from my experience only goes as raises to the local officials after a lot is eaten up by more infrastructure to promote growth.

 

[MACVSOG]

The future is in leasing land. It's thr most money you will make but you will need to be wildlife and recreation friendly. No more thinking you own the place because you have a cattle lease. Make yourself useful as a local resource also because the owner will likely not live there.

No matter some ones financial status land can not pay for itself in many areas. The last place my family bought was in the late 90s and it was like $1100 an acre. The land across the road from us is selling for $10K an acre right now. Our neighbors at one place are selling the wife's homeplace by the Sq ft in another area. It's so out of balance that my brother and I were playing around with some numbers the other day, with my parents, and if we sold the surface of our land, the cattle and land can't even generate the interest that would generate, invested in to the stock market. You could leave the principal and live off the interest, straight up mailbox money. That is a factor that has to be considered.

Wealthy people and companies are not killing cattle and land and all that. The math above and subdividing is killing the land. We are losing the sub 600ac properties daily to make 10, 20, 40 ac tracs.

this sounds like something a posted months ago with concerns about dropping water levels. probably repeating myself, when i bought this particular place only two properties on the county road with cattle. all other areas were vacant. in last few years almost all the land around me as been sold as mentioned in 5, 10, 15 acres, four in 25 acre lots.

more building all the time, although many still have resident owners. that was my concern about where will the water come from when all are occupied? our area water supply can not keep up with 120+ houses needing water.

regarding leasing land as many mentioned: i realize no one really "owns" anything, we just rent it while we are here on this earth. regardless that, i "own" all the property that i occupy. just me, if i l move cattle frequently, as i do, i am not paying lease to someone else while my grass is resting. texas ag exempt is good. i have friends who lease a lot and quite often have to sell out quickly as lessor give short notice to vacate. i wanted to as much as possible to take care of my own affairs and not having to rely on the whims of wishes of someone else.

just another random thought. i do what most people in my various parts of texas do and that is when meeting someone on a county road or narrow unpaved lane i raise one or two fingers as a wave, if you know them or not. i am having a lot of trouble teaching my new neighbors (do not know many yet personally). women seem quicker to wave than men. maybe that is considered unmanly where there they originate. so i feel it is not too difficult to raise a single digit or two. (please forgive me). i have decided that those who can not spare a finger must have it occupied in a nether region somewhere.

 

[Brute 23]

this sounds like something a posted months ago with concerns about dropping water levels. probably repeating myself, when i bought this particular place only two properties on the county road with cattle. all other areas were vacant. in last few years almost all the land around me as been sold as mentioned in 5, 10, 15 acres, four in 25 acre lots.

more building all the time, although many still have resident owners. that was my concern about where will the water come from when all are occupied? our area water supply can not keep up with 120+ houses needing water.

regarding leasing land as many mentioned: i realize no one really "owns" anything, we just rent it while we are here on this earth. regardless that, i "own" all the property that i occupy. just me, if i l move cattle frequently, as i do, i am not paying lease to someone else while my grass is resting. texas ag exempt is good. i have friends who lease a lot and quite often have to sell out quickly as lessor give short notice to vacate. i wanted to as much as possible to take care of my own affairs and not having to rely on the whims of wishes of someone else.

just another random thought. i do what most people in my various parts of texas do and that is when meeting someone on a county road or narrow unpaved lane i raise one or two fingers as a wave, if you know them or not. i am having a lot of trouble teaching my new neighbors (do not know many yet personally). women seem quicker to wave than men. maybe that is considered unmanly where there they originate. so i feel it is not too difficult to raise a single digit or two. (please forgive me). i have decided that those who can not spare a finger must have it occupied in a nether region somewhere.

That is how it is here. We use to know most people going up and down the road. We use to ride on back the truck 30 or 60 miles to check cattle. Now we have F350s pulling aluminum donkey trailers trying to run you over on those same roads. They don't wave. They have a cell phone in one hand and are driving with they other. We just consider ourselves lucky if they don't run us off the road. I'm not that old.

On leases, you are at the mercy of the lease you sign. It's on you, no one else.

 

[greybeard]

Yeah? But is that a good thing? A lot of any increase from my experience only goes as raises to the local officials after a lot is eaten up by more infrastructure to promote growth.

I've seen no one but the developers, the bankers and the new arrivals benefit from it, if you consider it a benefit to go into deep debt to buy a home ya really can't afford.
As far as infrastructure.........Dollar for Dollar, County govt can waste $$ on par with the federal govt every day of the week.

 

[TCRanch]

It's also coming to the end of an era because of poor money management and mental health issues. We just bought 200 acres in a Chapter 12 Sheriff's sale, conveniently located all of a half mile from our west 80. Which means, we technically own it, but he has 90 days to live there, rent free, and come up with the money. On the extremely slim chance he does, we get our money back & he owes us interest. But here's the kicker: he inherited the land. There's still a house built in 1900 that needs to be dozed, and one built in 1960 that's probably in poor condition (although it has a new roof). He has a ton of implements, tractors, equipment, chutes, etc. but most aren't in working condition. Why??? Because he never maintained them. He spent a fortune on high dollar Hereford bulls and has some beautiful cattle but hasn't made a profit. Grass fed only, no cubes, no grain. None of it makes sense. The property is primarily farm ground, but he hasn't farmed it in 3 years. Multiple offers from a lot of people around here wanting to farm it on thirds, but he turned them all down.

He's a really nice guy but I don't know him that well, although I'm good friends with his younger brother. Neither of his brothers have spoken to him in 2 years, cut off all contact because of extremely erratic behavior and bogus insurance claims. I don't know what happened, but he started spiraling downward shortly after his father committed suicide a few years ago.

That said, we bought it as an investment. We'll most likely farm it on thirds, but Mr. TC did kick around the idea of selling it in 20-acre plots. I'm not on board with that because of the influx of the aforementioned "hobby farmers". I dunno!! Still too early to decide.

 

[Ky hills]

Looks like in 2024 the estimated population of our county is around 37,600 something. That is a growth of around 12,000 people during my 50 years here,
We have zoning, but unfortunately it seems to depend on who wants what.
Somebody like me can't but a few can get the zoning changes and develope land with what they call clusters of houses on a property instead of lotting it off.
Used to be they passed a law for a minimum of an acre for house and 10 acre minimum for a house trailer.
You have to so many feet from a property line to build a house and have to have so much road frontage for a driveway.
They are really strict about septic tanks.
The local governments are definitely wasteful. Our downtown area was a ghost town for a while, with dilapidated buildings owned by old money that were grandfathered in so they didn't have to bring them up to code. Recently some new big money players have moved in and bought up a lot of those buildings and are having to bring them up to code or tear them down. The goal is to make the city an arts and entertainment district.
There is parallel parking on both sides of Main Street, but they are redoing a section of it, to make pull in diagonal parking places on one side and do away with parking on the other side.
Its always been hit and miss about waving, speaking or what ever here.
Most times if people know you and they would speak at least in the rural areas.
Have to be part of the town click and pretty affluent for most folks to speak or even be halfway respectful in town.
It's always been that way.
Now with more people living in the "country" they don't speak, but they will give the middle finger salute, yell cuss words, and or honk their horn at you, just for slowing down to turn in your drive. That happens to us frequently.
Wife's from a small town where people are more friendly and she now makes a game out of throwing her hand up to speak to other folks in passing vehicles.
She tries to see if anybody will speak back, and it's very seldom that they do.
We go to a farming area about 50 miles north and most people there will speak back.

 

[Stonewall Joe]

The USA is a giant country as counties go yet has only 5% of the world population. You think it's getting crowded here? Many parts of the world are wall to wall people.

there is alot of empty land in this country, just not near urban areas. Our area is developing like wildfire, a couple of developers have made a run at us. I guess it will never be sold during my lifetime. Ihave already deeded it over to my 2 boys but I'd imagine it mightgrow to be too big a temptation during theirs

 

[Dave]

On waving. Here everyone waves to each other. Wife often asks who was driving a passing car. A lot of the time I say I have no idea but I wave anyway. In town (25 miles away) it is less than 1 in 10 who wave. I just figure they aren't town people but people who live in the country.

One of the few good things about the nutty government of Oregon is they sure protect their farm and forest land with the urban growth boundary law.
View attachment 58256

"What is an Urban Growth Boundary? Under Oregon law, all cities must create and maintaina Urban Growth Boundary ("UGB"), identifying where city growth may occur within the next 20years. In order for a city to annex land into the city limits, that land must first be included withinthe UGB. Land inside the UGB supports urban services such as roads, water and sewer systems,parks, schools and fire and police protection. UGBs are a tool to protect rural farm and forestland by limiting sprawl."

They increase urban density instead of spreading it over the countryside.
View attachment 58257

Even county zoning laws have rules such as only 1 house is allowed on 80 acres of forest land.

Population- the whole state of Oregon has only has 4 million people plus a few 100,000. The county where my cabin is has 20,000 people and 2/3rd of it is Natl Forest. The county next to it where we live has 60,000.

Oregon saw what the influx of Californians was doing to Washington 40-50 years ago. They decided not to let the good farm ground get gobbled up by sub divisions. Here it is 160 acres to build a new house.

 

[dave_shelby]

farm next door went up for sale. the previous owner put it in a conservation easement. it went to a real estate investor who isn't farming it but planting loblolly pines which don't even do well here. word is he is got more money to put it into forestland which turns it into a tax break.

othere farms are getting bought up by city folks looking for weekend places.

 

[StrojanHerefords]

Back around 2010 I attended a TAMU workshop. One of the topics discussed was cattlemen like myself wouldn't exist by 2035.
I don't know the numbers today as I haven't attended a Workshop in a while. I am attending one next month.
At that time over 90% of all cattle raised in Texas were on ranches with 25 to 50 head.
We used to have breakfast at the local feed co-op on Saturday morning with standing room only.
Today there are four of us left.
The co-op today makes the majority of its money off the deer hunters.
I have watched sale barns close and thousands of acres of pasture that was full of cows are now empty .
Cooperate chickens and hogs work maybe cattle will as well soon.
I can see the beef gene pool only having a shallow end as dairy in the future.
Been one heck of a journey and a hell of a vision in the rear view mirror.
To quote Roy Rogers

Well that is what you get for stealing Trigger. We had the same phenomenon happen here in California about fifty years ago. Many of the old ranches were put together out of old 40 acre mining claims so we have wound up with a lot of 40 acre homesites that are too small to run cows on but too big to manicure. Several decades of no burning, no grazing and no logging results in wildfires.

 

[Texas G@l]

That is how it is here. We use to know most people going up and down the road. We use to ride on back the truck 30 or 60 miles to check cattle. Now we have F350s pulling aluminum donkey trailers trying to run you over on those same roads. They don't wave. They have a cell phone in one hand and are driving with they other. We just consider ourselves lucky if they don't run us off the road. I'm not that old.

On leases, you are at the mercy of the lease you sign. It's on you, no one else.

Lots of new faces around here as well....and all are from the DFW metromess. On our little road, all the properties have changed hands in the last few years except for us and another family. Neighbor control is one of the main reasons we bought the place across the road 7 years ago. I would like to buy the 160 acres for sale that backs up to our home place. It's being broken up into 11- 25 acre plots but no way we can afford it.

 

[BFE]

Government subsidies killed our area. Ethanol, CRP, and now solar farms are driving the price of ground out of reach for cattle to be competitive. There's little pockets left here and there that won't be farmed but they're few and far between, and many are sacred hunting ground for trophy hunters.

At least we're not overrun with out of staters moving in, except for deer season. Nobody moves to Illinois, people move out due to Chicago politics.

 

[greybeard]

Cattle auctioneers are an endangered breed.

 

[moses388]

On waving. Here everyone waves to each other. Wife often asks who was driving a passing car. A lot of the time I say I have no idea but I wave anyway.

I know people that do that and I get it. I also know people that wave and then get bent out-of-shape when someone doesn't wave back. What is that about? Who cares?!

 

[WAnabee]

Where I grew up there was tons of berry farms. All the kids picked berries. The bigger farms had old school busses which ran routes picking up berry picking kids. Went to a keg party in HS. We were 10 miles out of town surrounded by miles of timber. Now it is wall to wall houses and a High School in that area. In 1979 I moved 50 miles away to a sleepy little farm town. Dairies, sweat corn, and green peas. Still not much of a town but it is a bed room community to the bigger cities farther north. Still farms along the flood plain of the river because you can't build out there. But no more corn or peas and not one in ten of the dairies left.
So I moved here. A county bigger than the state of Delaware with a population of 16,000. I am surrounded on 3 sides by BLM. And other than it is government property there are reasons people didn't homestead on that land back when the government was giving it away. Back before the spotted owl shut down the woods the average income here was $20,000 higher than Portland. Now it is $20,000 lower. Nothing in the way of industry. There is the interstate but it is truck traffic headed to or from the coast. The vast majority of the cars (and there isn't very many of them) are people from out of state just passing through. You would have to search to find someone with only 50 cows. It takes 300 to make a living. So the small guys have long since sold out to the ones wanting to make a living running cows.

Kids picking berries in this county ended shortly after my time (not before i picked for a summer to buy an 870). Was told it became more of a liability than it was worth rather than just hire migrant workers, I really don't know. In high school i raked hay for a local rancher, i remember doing a 100 acre pea field at one point, but i never saw many pea fields after that either. That one i think was due to the local cannery closing and moving to Eastern WA...

 

[Brute 23]

I know people that do that and I get it. I also know people that wave and then get bent out-of-shape when someone doesn't wave back. What is that about? Who cares?!

It's not the "not waving" that bothers me. It's the 70 mph, throwing rocks on me, watching the cell phone in one hand and holding the wheel in the other... as they don't wave... that bothers me.

Those non-wave people are generally only concerned about themselves on that road... and probably life in general.