Cull and sell high and buy low price

[uscangus]

Sold my black angus cows (30 n price per head was
2.00 dollars n 2 black angus bulls (2 and 3 years old) for 2,500) about three years ago)

Plan to monitor the price of heifer black angus around 75 to 80 cents. Hopefully enter n buy 50 to 75 head by October of 2017.

 

[kenny thomas]

I sure hope by October the heifers will be lots higher than that.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Do you have a question here, or is this advice?

 

[uscangus]

Stocker Steve, it was a statement and an action.
Kenny Thomas, I am hoping the price per lbs will dwindle more in 2017 to 2018. By that time, initial cost will be much lowered. The beef master is not expecting the price of beef to increase until late 2018 Or 2019.
In my area, they are still culling dairy cows in northwest and price per lbs has no floor of price to stand on. A gallon of 2% is about 2.19 and regular milk is about 2.35. Not good for dairy operation.
Beef prices are still fire sale before and after the holidays due to culling dairy cattle.

 

[uscangus]

I missed the cattle today forum and it has been three years of absence. Had four kids finished colleges and are graduate school. One more child entering college. This is a great assets of informations to learn cow/calf production and from honest people who are very kind to share hard knocked knowledge, especially a newbie. Thank you guys

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

I missed the cattle today forum and it has been three years of absence. Had four kids finished colleges and are graduate school. One more child entering college. This is a great assets of informations to learn cow/calf production and from honest people who are very kind to share hard knocked knowledge, especially a newbie. Thank you guys

:welcome: back!

 

[farmerjan]

Milk prices are not near that bad here and there is a shortage in the southeast so we are not in the basement pricewise. Cull cows in the .45-.55 range both beef and dairy. Avg price on heifers here is in the .85 to 1.00 range for any size. I don't see it getting much better, but general consensus is it will stay near this for the next 18 months which is about what I'm thinking. They say we might have a bit of an uptick in Feb but then will be down in April for the rest of the year. Lots of talk but we'll see. Wish we had sold 1/3 to 1/2 the cows back 3 years ago. You made a smart move.

 

[RanchMan90]

If we knew this information ahead of time we would all be millionaires :lol2: Did they predict prices to peak where they did or where they are now?

 

[farmerjan]

2 guys were predicting prices to get high, but not as high as they did. Tried to talk my son into selling a big bunch; I sold all my calves for 2 years and did not keep any replacements, but did not sell any cows except open ones. We did cull a little heavier but not like I wanted to. We have a "mostly his", some mine, and some joint. He has told several friends in the last 6 months that he should've listened to me, and one just said to me a couple weeks ago that michael was really sorry he fought me on it, and I said oh well, that's the way it goes and maybe we will get lucky again....
Actually, I said 2-3 years ago when I was selling all my heifers, and my son said I shouldn't get rid of all of them, I told him that at 2.00 lb they could go, the cows will have more heifers, it won't last for another 12-18 months and then I will keep them when they are .50 lb. I am glad that they are not down as bad as .50 but they are less than half of what we were getting.
Yep hindsight is always 20/20

 

[True Grit Farms]

Sold my black angus cows (30 n price per head was
2.00 dollars n 2 black angus bulls (2 and 3 years old) for 2,500) about three years ago)

Plan to monitor the price of heifer black angus around 75 to 80 cents. Hopefully enter n buy 50 to 75 head by October of 2017.

This should be interesting, personally I think you missed the buy in already. Prices are going to hold steady, + or - $20. to $30. Then start upwards because of lack of imports and supplies.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Market timing is a tempting, but few if any people can do it consistently. This time it was supposed to be different in the commodity world because China would buy up any surpluses. :lol: But, those greedy for profit communists have learned some bad bad leveraging habits and now they have several huge bubbles they are trying to unwind.
The traders target making money on the way up, and making money on the way down. This can be done more consistently than market timing, but there is the issue of avoiding a loss of net worth. So you see a few folks move into the custom grazing business to let someone else take this risk.

uscangus - what are you doing with your pastures during the four years you are out of the cow/calf business?

 

[uscangus]

Market timing is a tempting, but few if any people can do it consistently. This time it was supposed to be different in the commodity world because China would buy up any surpluses. :lol: But, those greedy for profit communists have learned some bad bad leveraging habits and now they have several huge bubbles they are trying to unwind.
The traders target making money on the way up, and making money on the way down. This can be done more consistently than market timing, but there is the issue of avoiding a loss of net worth. So you see a few folks move into the custom grazing business to let someone else take this risk.

uscangus - what are you doing with your pastures during the four years you are out of the cow/calf business?

Steve, my biggest concern is the credit problem in China and expecting hard landing due to financial system or over leverage. If China has a landing, it will affect this market and the whole world like Japan in the 80's and not recover for almost 20
years. It will be tsunami effect in Asia, Africa, central and South America because they are the lender for these countries who are consumers of China products.

Steve, in the last four years, I have rented my organic pastures for $250 dollars per acreage. Last year, which next year will be $300 per acreage due to water. I am acquiring 26 acreage per 200k. I did not wanted to buy land in the last four years due to Wall Street, pension plan, foreigner, and institution Buyers were buying farm land. Here, Washington farmland was in the New last year as the new gold rush due California n foreigners(Chinese) , and Wall Street or institutional buying out farmland due to excess water. Hence, farmland is very hot if your property is near the interstate freeway.

 

[uscangus]

Sold my black angus cows (30 n price per head was
2.00 dollars n 2 black angus bulls (2 and 3 years old) for 2,500) about three years ago)

Plan to monitor the price of heifer black angus around 75 to 80 cents. Hopefully enter n buy 50 to 75 head by October of 2017.

This should be interesting, personally I think you missed the buy in already. Prices are going to hold steady, + or - $20. to $30. Then start upwards because of lack of imports and supplies.

I am using the cow/calf business to eventually finance the farm that acquired in 2005 n pay for itself. I will wait until my price such 75-80 cent per lbs in heifer( black angus). I am not in hurry n still young,55. I know that price will be stagnant until 18-24 months. I don't expect any upside in long term until China, Japan, n Europe n South America economy's improve since those countries are doing QE or quantities easing or negative rates.

 

[uscangus]

2 guys were predicting prices to get high, but not as high as they did. Tried to talk my son into selling a big bunch; I sold all my calves for 2 years and did not keep any replacements, but did not sell any cows except open ones. We did cull a little heavier but not like I wanted to. We have a "mostly his", some mine, and some joint. He has told several friends in the last 6 months that he should've listened to me, and one just said to me a couple weeks ago that michael was really sorry he fought me on it, and I said oh well, that's the way it goes and maybe we will get lucky again....
Actually, I said 2-3 years ago when I was selling all my heifers, and my son said I shouldn't get rid of all of them, I told him that at 2.00 lb they could go, the cows will have more heifers, it won't last for another 12-18 months and then I will keep them when they are .50 lb. I am glad that they are not down as bad as .50 but they are less than half of what we were getting.
Yep hindsight is always 20/20

Farmerjan, yes hindsight is always 20/20. Being newbie, if your cost is 750 per head, I like to take the profit from the top n can't take risks. Cash is king from the forum board, I am planning to take FSA loan or operational loan for pole barn (60X80 or 60X100 ) retaining bred cows during winter n separating the yearling heifer at another holding pen.
Use also the second half of loan to acquire bred cows or young heifers)

 

[uscangus]

If we knew this information ahead of time we would all be millionaires :lol2: Did they predict prices to peak where they did or where they are now?

RanchMan90, I agree. I listened to other people. They say that rate will go up but I say the rate will be stationary or will not go up too high because Japan n some European countries are still in negative rates because their consumers are still hurting. South America n other European countries are copying us like QE or quantitative easing by keeping rates low n dollar value high but not enough. Reason is that their economies are still in recession. Hence, price beef will be sideways n once the dairy stop culling their cows we will not see price go up n no floor or demand to keep price to go up. It is why I am waiting for my price.

 

[uscangus]

If we knew this information ahead of time we would all be millionaires :lol2: Did they predict prices to peak where they did or where they are now?

RanchMan90, I agree. I listened to other people. They say that rate will go up but I say the rate will be stationary or will not go up too high because Japan n some European countries are still in negative rates because their consumers are still hurting. South America n other European countries are copying us like QE or quantitative easing by keeping rates low n dollar value high but not enough. Reason is that their economies are still in recession. Hence, price beef will be sideways n once the dairy stop culling their cows we will not see price go up n no floor or demand to keep price to go up. It is why I am waiting for my price.

 

[angus9259]

The problem with timing the market is, as they say, you have to be right twice - at the top and bottom. You hit once - good luck finding the bottom.

 

[Stocker Steve]

in the last four years, I have rented my organic pastures for $250 dollars per acreage. Last year, which next year will be $300 per acreage due to water. I am acquiring 26 acreage per 200k.

Interesting. How can you ever afford to run cows? Seems like you should have market timed the land and moved the cows out of state.

 

[angus9259]

in the last four years, I have rented my organic pastures for $250 dollars per acreage. Last year, which next year will be $300 per acreage due to water. I am acquiring 26 acreage per 200k.

Interesting. How can you ever afford to run cows? Seems like you should have market timed the land and moved the cows out of state.

Yeah, not seeing the math here myself - unless you just want to own some cows.

 

[Hunter]

RanchMan90, I agree. I listened to other people. They say that rate will go up but I say the rate will be stationary or will not go up too high because Japan n some European countries are still in negative rates because their consumers are still hurting. South America n other European countries are copying us like QE or quantitative easing by keeping rates low n dollar value high but not enough. Reason is that their economies are still in recession. Hence, price beef will be sideways n once the dairy stop culling their cows we will not see price go up n no floor or demand to keep price to go up. It is why I am waiting for my price.[/quote]

Are you stating that other countries are doing QE so their value of money stays high?