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<blockquote data-quote="HerefordSire" data-source="post: 617565" data-attributes="member: 4437"><p><em>Higher high is what I am looking for....</em></p><p></p><p>Grains</p><p></p><p>Corn: March corn made a higher high last week but failed to follow through, closing 1 ½ cents lower. Monday the USDA will release its monthly crop report with average pre-report trade guesses having corn production for '08 at 11.982b.b., down from the last report of 12.020. Ending stocks, due to the decreased usage, are expected to come in at 1.489b.b. vs. 1.474 last month. More important than the crop report this week could be the weather in South America. Argentina and Brazil remain too dry to help early emerging corn crops.</p><p></p><p>The report should be friendly, but on a surprise bearish reaction or precipitation in South America we could see a move down between 3.55/3.70. Support is seen at 3.90 with resistance at 4.30. We still have clients in the option/futures strategy from 2 weeks ago at a slight profit looking to react depending on the movement this week. (Sold May 4.30 calls, bought March 4.10 puts and long March futures just under 4.00.)</p><p></p><p>Beans: March soybeans were 56 ½ cents higher last week and on the charts there is no real resistance until $11. We have been advising clients to work out of their longs, lightening up, taking profit on the way up to lessen exposure in case of any surprises on Monday's USDA report. The average pre-report guess puts production for '08 at 2.910b.b. vs. 2.921 on the last report. Ending stocks are expected to come in at 186m.b., down 19 m.b. from the December report. The report is expected to be mildly bullish making the recent weather in South America even more critical. March soybeans have advanced $2.50 since the first week of December and if we get some precipitation over the next few days we could see a steep correction, albeit short lived.</p><p></p><p>We have advised clients to take 2/3 of the recent trade recommendation off. We advised clients to buy back the May calls at a loss (approx. $1200) and to exit the long futures at a profit (approx. $3275). We are still holding March puts looking to exit on a setback. Current support comes in at 9.80 followed by 9.50; on a move to these levels we would most likely cover the remaining puts and potentially look to re-establish longs.</p><p></p><p>Wheat: March CBOT wheat picked up 16 ½ cents last week. Resistance is seen at last week's double top of 6.46 with support at 5.95 followed by 5.80. On a move lower in corn and soybeans we expect CBOT to trade down between 5.40/5.55. March KCBOT picked up 18 cents last week. Resistance is seen at 6.70 with support at 6.25 followed by 6.10. On a set back look for a long entry with stops below 5.40. The KCBOT/CBOT March spread closed last week at 21 ½ cents premium to KCBOT. We still like the trade with stops on a close only basis below 15 cents and a target of 45/50 cents.</p><p></p><p>Monday's USDA report for wheat has pre-report trade estimations for winter wheat planting at 44.178m.a. down from 46.181 last year. The average trade estimate for ending stocks inventory is 600m.b. vs. 623 last month. Most of this should already be priced in with wheat continuing to look for guidance from corn and soybeans. Weather has also played a role in the pricing of wheat, not solely corn and soybeans. Argentina will reap the smallest wheat harvest since '89 after weather conditions curbed yields. The crop will be no more than 8.7 million tons, down at least 5.4% from a previous forecast.</p><p></p><p></p><p><a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/114373-weekly-outlook-one-week-until-obamanomics" target="_blank">http://seekingalpha.com/article/114373- ... bamanomics</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HerefordSire, post: 617565, member: 4437"] [i]Higher high is what I am looking for....[/i] Grains Corn: March corn made a higher high last week but failed to follow through, closing 1 ½ cents lower. Monday the USDA will release its monthly crop report with average pre-report trade guesses having corn production for '08 at 11.982b.b., down from the last report of 12.020. Ending stocks, due to the decreased usage, are expected to come in at 1.489b.b. vs. 1.474 last month. More important than the crop report this week could be the weather in South America. Argentina and Brazil remain too dry to help early emerging corn crops. The report should be friendly, but on a surprise bearish reaction or precipitation in South America we could see a move down between 3.55/3.70. Support is seen at 3.90 with resistance at 4.30. We still have clients in the option/futures strategy from 2 weeks ago at a slight profit looking to react depending on the movement this week. (Sold May 4.30 calls, bought March 4.10 puts and long March futures just under 4.00.) Beans: March soybeans were 56 ½ cents higher last week and on the charts there is no real resistance until $11. We have been advising clients to work out of their longs, lightening up, taking profit on the way up to lessen exposure in case of any surprises on Monday’s USDA report. The average pre-report guess puts production for '08 at 2.910b.b. vs. 2.921 on the last report. Ending stocks are expected to come in at 186m.b., down 19 m.b. from the December report. The report is expected to be mildly bullish making the recent weather in South America even more critical. March soybeans have advanced $2.50 since the first week of December and if we get some precipitation over the next few days we could see a steep correction, albeit short lived. We have advised clients to take 2/3 of the recent trade recommendation off. We advised clients to buy back the May calls at a loss (approx. $1200) and to exit the long futures at a profit (approx. $3275). We are still holding March puts looking to exit on a setback. Current support comes in at 9.80 followed by 9.50; on a move to these levels we would most likely cover the remaining puts and potentially look to re-establish longs. Wheat: March CBOT wheat picked up 16 ½ cents last week. Resistance is seen at last week’s double top of 6.46 with support at 5.95 followed by 5.80. On a move lower in corn and soybeans we expect CBOT to trade down between 5.40/5.55. March KCBOT picked up 18 cents last week. Resistance is seen at 6.70 with support at 6.25 followed by 6.10. On a set back look for a long entry with stops below 5.40. The KCBOT/CBOT March spread closed last week at 21 ½ cents premium to KCBOT. We still like the trade with stops on a close only basis below 15 cents and a target of 45/50 cents. Monday’s USDA report for wheat has pre-report trade estimations for winter wheat planting at 44.178m.a. down from 46.181 last year. The average trade estimate for ending stocks inventory is 600m.b. vs. 623 last month. Most of this should already be priced in with wheat continuing to look for guidance from corn and soybeans. Weather has also played a role in the pricing of wheat, not solely corn and soybeans. Argentina will reap the smallest wheat harvest since '89 after weather conditions curbed yields. The crop will be no more than 8.7 million tons, down at least 5.4% from a previous forecast. [url=http://seekingalpha.com/article/114373-weekly-outlook-one-week-until-obamanomics]http://seekingalpha.com/article/114373- ... bamanomics[/url] [/QUOTE]
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