Corn Market 2016-2017

[ddd75]

another large grain farmer here (3,000 acres) selling all equipment and switching operations (doesn't say what hes doing)

 

[Stocker Steve]

switching operations (doesn't say what hes doing)

To beef! :nod: Standing room only at the bred sales yesterday.

 

[Son of Butch]

Chicago Market
7/14/16 Corn closed at 3.81
7/14/17 Corn closed at 3.65
trading range for the last 12 months has been from 3.41 - 3.92

2 different market forecasters have projected new crop December 2017 corn in the 4.40 - 4.70 range
I think they are full of xxxx...
but my wild guess is maybe we'll be seeing 4.30 corn in 2018

update
12/14/17 Corn 3.36
July 2018 Corn futures 3.65

3.36 vs 4.40 December corn = Market 'experts' were only off by $1.04 (31%)
I'm taming down my optimistic 4.30 corn in 2018 to 3.81 hoping for spring run up back to 2016 July Corn prices
Right now grain bin doors are welded shut until at least March expecting prices to slowly grind upwards till June.

update
March corn 3.77
July 2018 corn 3.92
March 2nd cash price delivered to Savage, Mn 3.34
4/1/18 - 3.48
5/1/18 - 3.50
10/1-/18 - 3.49

Banker just pulled the plug on a local farmer who had been running 6,000+ acres here the last several years.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Banker just pulled the plug on a local farmer who had been running 6,000+ acres here the last several years.

I sold half my 2018 bean production guarantee last week. Deeded land profitability looks OK to me, but I think you have to be careful on what you rent.

Did this guy have management issues, or pay too much rent, or both?

 

[Son of Butch]

Management wise he did good job growing/production in a timely manner, but a lot of rented ground and you don't
get that big without paying top dollar. Plus cost of equipment to farm on that scale to get everything done on time
is unreal.

 

[Stocker Steve]

but a lot of rented ground and you don't get that big without paying top dollar.

So are local rental rates dropping now, or are other BTOs snapping up additional acres?

 

[Craig]

Rent rates around here were locked in last fall already. Most of the farms I manage rates stayed the same. I won't consider rate adjustments until August/September now.