CED is outta control....

[angus9259]

Doesn't it seem like CED is growing exponentially? How can that much progress be made that fast? It's almost as if a +12 CED is getting to be a "difficult calver". Are the numbers getting away from us to the point they have no meaning any more? Perhaps the same with weaning and yearling weights? We should have calving problems virtually eliminated by next calving season!!

 

[Commercialfarmer]

When you have 60lb calves hitting the ground regularly, it doesn't seem out of the question.

What concerns me is the pelvic diameter in the heifers out of extreme calving ease sires. I think the hickup in the extremes might be located at that juncture. But maybe I'm wrong.

 

[WalnutCrest]

In other words, breeding for extremes might lead to unexpected consequences.

 

[Son of Butch]

Really?
Which +12 sire are you referring to?
What is his acc. ?
+5 ced = breed average
Can you give any examples, perhaps in comparison to a +5 or +6 sire?
+1.7 bw is current angus breed average
What bw are you seeing?

 

[Son of Butch]

Are the numbers getting away from us to the point they have no meaning any more?

I think the ced base should be reset/adjusted to breed average of 0 rather than +5
Seems so many have trouble understanding epds to begin with that it needs to be kept as simple as possible.
Too many buy a bull with +4 ced and 0.05 acc and then act surprised when they have to assist a heifer.

 

[DOC HARRIS]

Doesn't it seem like CED is growing exponentially? How can that much progress be made that fast? It's almost as if a +12 CED is getting to be a "difficult calver. Are the numbers getting away from us to the point they have no meaning any more? Perhaps the same with weaning and yearling weights? We should have calving problems virtually eliminated by next calving season!!

It is critical that the exact meanings of the EPD's are comprehended completely so that even slight misunderstandings are not taken out of context and ricocheted off into space somewhere. The very nature and definitions of the Expected Progeny Differences ( The prediction of how future progeny of each animal are expected to perform RELATIVE to the progeny of other animals listed in the database.) are at best ethereal. The important operative words here are expected and RELATIVE. . . . and it must also be borne in mind that the predictions are based on the expectations (EPD's) of at least TWO other animals (parents) of the subject animal. And - we are focusing on "greater calving ease in first-calf heifers".

And - here is the unexpected difficulty that most breeders seem to overlook: the "Accuracies" of these EPD's which establishes the reliability that can be placed on the EPD's. As is the case with all scoring methods of any subject, game, activity, performance, or individual, there are differences of interpretations and values and opinions given by human beings. One example of this being - when does a breeder consider that it is time to "assist" a cow in birthing her calf?? What solid factors determine that decision? When is "NOW" the correct moment, or "should I wait another few minutes before interfering"? The timing is always subjective. An accuracy of close to 1.0 indicates higher reliability.

Obviously, there are many factors to consider when making profound decisions which will affect your future success and income. It is important that every judgment and choice be made with as much information as possible at your disposal. But NO ONE is perfect. One can just hope to aspire to come close.

DOC HARRIS

 

[Commercialfarmer]

In the original post, he said where 12 ced is getting to be considered a difficult calver. I think some missed that.

 

[dun]

When you have 60lb calves hitting the ground regularly, it doesn't seem out of the question.

What concerns me is the pelvic diameter in the heifers out of extreme calving ease sires. I think the hickup in the extremes might be located at that juncture. But maybe I'm wrong.

The concerns with pelvic supposedly are addressed by the CETM (daughters calving ease). But to scotch our bets we do a pelvic measurement on all replacements at (spring) yearling work up.

 

[Son of Butch]

In the original post, he said where 12 ced is getting to be considered a difficult calver. I think some missed that.

Yes, but he never explained his expectations of a +12.
Without more info my best guess is his perception is way off, bcs less than +13 would include over 95% of the entire Angus breed, not to mention other breeds.

 

[angus9259]

In the original post, he said where 12 ced is getting to be considered a difficult calver. I think some missed that.

I was being sarcastic. A 12 CED is not a difficult calver - thanks for the great enlightenment. That's actually my point. But there was a day when a 12 CED was a super calving ease bull and a 5 was "average". Now they are putting out bulls at 15, 17 - when will we hit 20 and soon 12 will be "average". I fully understand a 12 CED is not a difficult calver. But if a 12 is calving ease, what is a 17? Is an 8 still calving ease? My point is that the transition from 5 to 17 on the y axis with time to get to 17 CED on the x axis has been exponential - a change that seems faster than genetically possible.

Never mind. Carry on.

 

[angus9259]

bcs less than +13 would include over 95% of the entire Angus breed, not to mention other breeds.

However - two years ago there were none that high. Now 5% are that high and 2 % are even higher and it's growing exponentially. It took 15 years to get to +10 and it's taken 2 years to get to +17.

 

[angus9259]

Go to the Genex catalogue and count off the first 20 bulls in alphabetical order. Of the first 20 bulls - not listed in any order other than the alphabet - 15 of the first 20 have a calving ease of +10 or greater and 10 of the first 20 bulls have a calving ease of +14 or more!

Of the first 20 bulls in their sire listing, a +12 would be middle of the road.

 

[Commercialfarmer]

In the original post, he said where 12 ced is getting to be considered a difficult calver. I think some missed that.

I was being sarcastic. A 12 CED is not a difficult calver - thanks for the great enlightenment. That's actually my point. But there was a day when a 12 CED was a super calving ease bull and a 5 was "average". Now they are putting out bulls at 15, 17 - when will we hit 20 and soon 12 will be "average". I fully understand a 12 CED is not a difficult calver. But if a 12 is calving ease, what is a 17? Is an 8 still calving ease? My point is that the transition from 5 to 17 on the y axis with time to get to 17 CED on the x axis has been exponential - a change that seems faster than genetically possible.

Never mind. Carry on.

Didn't intend for it to sound literal, figured the sarcasm was inherent. I'd of quoted your original statement, but it's too much work on a phone.


As I said, I think there is legitimacy in some of the numbers. If prepotency is real, why does it not apply to calving ease? Granted that various genetic attributes have variations in percentage of real expression. But, if you can't make a difference through genetic selection, then the whole thing is a shell game. Which we know isn't true.

I don't doubt that something can't be selected for. But what are you selecting against or discarding in the breed by selecting away from more moderate birth weight or calving ease?

Seems to me like much of this is for the curve bending do it all heifer bull. Maybe they are curve bending, but they don't have the appearance of maternal functionality to me. As Dun said, maybe you can select for adequate pelvic shape in the face of increasing CED. Like finding increasing WW and YW with decreased BW and increasing CE. But in general, I think they are antagonistic. If you can find the outliers, there should be some value to them. I just want to see it work it first before I buy into it- I don't keep any second generation heifer bull heifer for breeding.

 

[Jake]

Had a calf born this past weekend out of SAV Harvestor #16687737

He's a -16 CED and +6 BW heifer calf born at 58#

Now this is anecdotal but it just make a point just how carried away people get with selecting for low birth weight easy calving genetics.

 

[angus9259]

I wonder how many heifers you have to kill to get a -16???

Side note on harvestor - says he sold for $275,000 2/3 interesting. I find it odd then that he's shown to be owned by Herbster Angus and SAV - that part by itself isn't so interesting - Herbster coulda been the buyer. What's interesting is the AAA site shows the dam of harverstor is owned by Herbster. So did SAV buy it from Herbster at their own sale?? I guess if I were altruistic I would think that Herbster later also bought harvestor's dam but I'm more cynical and think it's all a scam.

 

[Jake]

I wonder how many heifers you have to kill to get a -16???

We used 3 straws that we got for free to experiment this past year. We got 2 heifer calves. One was tiny and the other weighed 75# both came unassisted so I have no experience to say the bull is a hard calver. I think people get a little too carried away with thinking everything has to come out the size of jack russell.

 

[dun]

People keep forgetting that EPDs are based on a bell curve and that only 33% will fall within that bell. In other words, even at an accuracy of.9 you will still have extremes on either side of the actaul EPD nuber. We had a 54 lb heifer born from a heifer bred to a bull that we've always gotten 70-75 lb calves from even from mature cows. That could be an EPD thing or it could simply be because whe was 12 days early or a combination of both.

 

[Jake]

People keep forgetting that EPDs are based on a bell curve and that only 33% will fall within that bell. In other words, even at an accuracy of.9 you will still have extremes on either side of the actaul EPD nuber. We had a 54 lb heifer born from a heifer bred to a bull that we've always gotten 70-75 lb calves from even from mature cows. That could be an EPD thing or it could simply be because whe was 12 days early or a combination of both.

Sometimes we just need a "like" button.

 

[Willow Springs]

People keep forgetting that EPDs are based on a bell curve and that only 33% will fall within that bell.

Not to be a stickler, but this didn't sound right to me. All data falls within the bell; 50% to either side of the mean (average). Now if are talking about standard deviation then 68% of the data is within 1 or -1 sd of the mean; 34% to each side of it and this makes up major portion of the bell shape curve.

 

[dun]

People keep forgetting that EPDs are based on a bell curve and that only 33% will fall within that bell.

Not to be a stickler, but this didn't sound right to me. All data falls within the bell; 50% to either side of the mean (average). Now if are talking about standard deviation then 68% of the data is within 1 or -1 sd of the mean; 34% to each side of it and this makes up major portion of the bell shape curve.

Should have been 66% vs 33%. I'm no statistican, the breed registry is who came up with the 66% and the bell curve.