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CattleFeeding News: Oct 22

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Cattle Feeding News * Monday October 22, 2001 * Cattlefeeding.com

Cattle on Feed Report:

U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on October 1, 2001. The inventory was 1 percent above October 1, 2000 and 8 percent above October 1, 1999. The inventory included 6.63 million

steers and steer calves, up 1 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 60 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.45 million head, up 1 percent from 2000.

Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.14 million, 20 percent below 2000 and 23 percent below 1999. Net placements were 2.09 million. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 528,000, 600-699 pounds were 447,000, 700-799 pounds were

559,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 602,000.

Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.82 million, 9 percent below 2000 and 7 percent below 1999.

Other disappearance totaled 46,000 during September, 15 percent below 2000 and 26 percent below 1999.

For more information on cattle on feed…

Weekly Summary: by Derrel White, Brookover Feed Yards, Inc.

The cattle markets continue to have volatility as the most dominant feature. On Friday, the cattle on feed report was issued and although the numbers were quite friendly to the deferred months as placements were only 79% of a year ago, the market had already anticipated this and reacted hardly at all on the opening on Monday morning. At this point we have about as much bad news in the market as we can have and should be trying to find a bottom in here somewhere.

Over the last two weeks, the meat has recovered as much as $4-7 of the losses that occurred after the September 11 attacks. At the same time the best bid that we could get last week was at the lows for the year at $ 66. The poorer quality animals continue to not get bids at all from any of the packers. The buzz word in the markets seems to be the front-end supply but even with improving beef prices last week the packers refused to increase the chain speed to more than 690,000. It is generally agreed that the packers are short bought and that there is pent up demand at all levels on the wholesale and retail buyers side. We have not seen a lot of bottom picking yet on the wholesale side but once a bottom is established we could see a nice rally from these levels.

Feeder cattle prices seem to be locked in a very narrow trading range around the $ 89/cwt level for a 750# steer. The feeder cattle deferred contracts are trading at a substantial discount to the front month. Seasonally feeder cattle prices should increase slightly through January and then start moving lower into the early summer. Private analysts are predicting that the placement level in October will be lower again compared to last year. The principal reason is that you cannot purchase cattle at feeder weights and hedge a profit in on the board. The February and April contracts are discounted significantly from last years levels at this time and could have substantial appreciation with a weather scare or even just average performance with the low number of cattle placed during September. Even with these market conditions we are still finding some purchases which have projected breakevens between $ 73-74 for February through April delivery. With the cash feeder market staying remarkably strong even during these very uncertain times with the current fat market, it may not be a bad time to test the waters with small purchases that are close to a breakeven on the board and lock in profits on any rallies on the board.

If you have any questions or comments, please send an email to Derrel White, <A HREF="mailto:[email protected]">[email protected]</A>.

National Slaughter Cattle Summary:

Slaughter cattle began trading Thursday 1.50-2.00 lower on live basis with dressed basis 2.00 lower. Strong front end loaded supply continues to be the major stumbling block in the market. Sharply lower

feedlot placements for September and most likely October will do little to alleviate the heavy market ready supplies this quarter. Basic market fundamentals of supply and demand have returned to the

forefront. Emotional and often erroneous news reports continue to dable with the delicate balance on the demand side but they appear to be limited to daily futures fluctuations rather than with actual trading of cattle. However, the mad cow scare in Japan has taken a toll on demand as exports have been severely hampered to the largest importer of US beef.

USDA's boxed beef cut-out values closed Thursday at an average of 111.75 down .77 from last Friday.

Sales of slaughter cattle on a national basis for negotiated cash trades totaled 71,800 through Thursday. Last weeks full count was 180,800 head.

Kansas Summary Nebraska Summary Colorado Summary

Texas Summary Oklahoma Summary More…

A special thanks goes out to the sponsors of the Cattle Feeding Industry!

Bank of America Commerce Bank Turn-Key

ROTO-MIX Winter Feed Yard, Inc. Bowman Enterprises

National Feeder Cattle Summary:

Receipts: This week 216,000; last week 210,300; year ago 231,300.

Feeder steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 lower this week, according to USDA Livestock and Grain Market News Service. A few places in the winter wheat country of the Southwest steady to 2.00 higher. Calf country of the Southeast remains very erratic and as much as 10.00 lower this week after being as much as 10.00 higher last week. Increased receipts the past week has indicated the beginning of the late summer and early fall calf run as a larger percentage now weighing under 600

lbs. Consumer beef demand suffering from a sagging economy. Cattle slaughter well under a year ago but the finished market continues to work lower. Direct trade 2.00 lower this week, mostly 66.00 and 106.00 in the beef. Boxed beef cutouts lower again this week with heavy carcasses a burden on the trade and 115.65. However, good late week beef movement. A year ago we had 68.00 slaughter cattle and the kill was over 700 thousand. Year to date beef production down 4 percent. Hog

slaughter over two million head this week. After corn production figures were revised upward, price losses were substantial with off rail country elevators bidding under 1.75 per bushel. Live cattle future quotes dropped again today and far-out months hit the hardest with nothing past April of next year over 68.00. Today's Cattle On Feed report had numbers at 101 percent but September placements down 20 percent. This pattern has prevailed for the past several months but with reduced slaughter

turn around time and clean up of liberal front end supplies prolonged. Downturns in the feeder cattle market and the economy may look harsh but they had reached all time record high levels. Supply this week 31 percent over 600 lbs.

Kansas Summary Nebraska Summary Oklahoma Summary Texas Summary More…

RUSSIA HALTS MEAT IMPORTS FROM FLORIDA:

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) has learned that Russia has banned imports of all meat from Florida, claiming that such meat could be contaminated with anthrax.

“This action primarily affects poultry exports, as Florida does not produce much beef for export to Russia,” said NCBA Chief Economist, Chuck Lambert. “The United States exports beef to Russia, but the beef from Florida is processed and shipped from other states.

“There is no scientific basis for this action,” said Lambert. “There is no risk to meat from a human anthrax occurrence.”

NCBA has been informed that the United States Department of Agriculture is discussing this action with Russia, attempting to resolve the issue and have the ban lifted.

For more news on biosecurity measures…

Trivia Contest:

Born Elizabeth Anne Bloomer in Chicago, she was a model and a dancer with the Martha Graham troupe as a teenager. She also taught handicapped children dance. Before moving into the White House, she had a mastectomy, and her openness about it brought breast cancer awareness to the public. Her fight with alcohol and pills led to the establishment of a drug

treatment and recovery center. Who am I?

The first three correct submissions will receive an "eat beef - keep slim" t-shirt.

Email your answers to <A HREF="mailto:[email protected]">[email protected]</A>

National Grain Market Summary:

Wheat bids took another jump higher today, as technical buying on the Boards continued to underpin bids. Export sales remain sluggish but traders are optimistic. Corn bids showed some signs of life but

most movement was downward due to harvest progress and lack of export interest. Warm temperatures and sunny skies are forecast for the Corn Belt areas this weekend, however, some places remain too wet for field-work. Soybean bids fell sharply lowers on technical selling. Carryover

weakness from last week's USDA production report continued to be a factor. Favorable weather and active harvest still keeping the lid on bids.

Wheat 2 to 4 cents higher. Corn mixed, mostly 1 to 4 cents lower. Sorghum steady. Soybeans 6 to 10 cents lower.

Kansas Summary Nebraska Summary Oklahoma Summary Texas Summary

More…

Classified Ads:

Are you doing business with feed yards? Check out our classified ads section. Here are few examples: Beef Belt Feeders is selling a 1995 Ford Bronco XLT, red and white, 127,000 miles. Texas County Feed Yards is looking for a bunk reader. Derrel White, Brookover Feed Yards, is selling a load of mixed calves weighing 425-450#. For more information, please go to <A HREF="http://www.cattlefeeding.com">www.cattlefeeding.com</A>.

Hay Market Summary:

All prices are dollars per ton and FOB unless otherwise noted. Tonnage: 14,335/4,426 Last week: 14,202/4,249 Last year: 15,008/5,524 Hay trade moderate. Demand is good for prairie hay, grinding and dairy alfalfa, moderate for brome and alfalfa pellets. Prices are from the most recent sales. Alfalfa producers continue to bale some really good dairy alfalfa. Movement has been good right out of the field. High Nitrates are showing up in stressed sudan, cane and sorghum crops. Hay Hotlines to help hay and livestock producers market hay:

Texas 877 429-1998; Oklahoma 800 580-6543; Missouri 800 877-4429.

More…

Nebraska Summary Oklahoma Summary Texas Summary More...

CattleFeeding 101:

Q : How do I figure a breakeven?

A : Breakeven is the figure that tells you at what price you need to sell your fed cattle in order to break even on the transaction. It's a simple division, taking the estimated cost to produce a fed animal divided by its expected end weight. Feedyards can predict fairly accurately what the feed bill, medicine bill, interest and other expenses will be and estimate a breakeven on your calves. As an example, assume you purchased 600 lb. calves at $85 per cwt. with a 3% pencil shrink for an average cost per calf of $508. Other costs are estimated to total $300 for total expenses per head of $808. If the calves weigh 1,150 lbs. when sold to the packer (including a 4% pencil shrink), the breakeven is $70.26 ($808 divided by 1,150). For more information, see <A HREF="http://www.tcfa.org/">http://www.tcfa.org/</A>.

If you have a question about cattlefeeding, please post it on our feedyard forum or send it to <A HREF="mailto:[email protected]">[email protected]</A>. If your question is used in our newsletter, you will receive an "eat beef - keep slim" t-shirt.

National Feed Stuffs Market Review:

The USDA Market News Service reports feed ingredient prices for the week ending October 16, were mixed, mostly lower. Soybean Meal was 6.10 to 11.40 lower. Cottonseed Meal was steady to 5.00 lower. Whole Cottonseed was steady in Memphis. Canola Meal was 5.20 to 7.40 lower. Linseed Meal was steady. Sunflower Meal was steady. Crude Oil was mixed, 36 points lower to 25 points higher. Meat and Bone Meal was mixed, steady to 10.00 lower, mostly steady. Blood Meal had no price comparison. Feather Meal was steady 5.00 lower, mostly steady. Fish Meal was steady. Yellow Corn Hominy was steady to 3.00 higher. Corn Gluten Feed was mixed, 2.00 lower to 6.00 higher. Corn Gluten Meal was mixed, 5.00 lower to 5.00 higher. Distillers Dried Grains were mixed, 3.00 lower to 8.00 higher, mostly higher. Brewers Dried Grain prices were steady. Wheat Middlings were mixed 5.00 lower to 10.00 higher, mostly higher.

More…

National Livestock Summary:

Commercial red meat production for the United States totaled 3.66 billion pounds in September, down 5 percent from the 3.86 billion pounds produced in September 2000. September 2000 contained 21 weekdays (including one holiday) and 5 Saturdays. September 2001 contained 20 weekdays (including one holiday) and 5 Saturdays. Beef production, at 2.12 billion pounds, was 7 percent below the previous year, a record September tonnage. Cattle slaughter totaled 2.81 million head, down 7 percent from September 2000. The average live weight was up 9 pounds from the previous year, at 1,240 pounds. Veal production totaled 15 million pounds, 10 percent below September a year ago. Calf slaughter totaled 78,600 head, down 16 percent from September 2000. The average live weight was 20 pounds above last year, at 313 pounds. Pork production totaled 1.51 billion pounds, down 3 percent from the previous year. Hog kill totaled 7.81 million head, 4 percent below September 2000. The average live weight was 3 pounds above the previous year, at 262 pounds. Lamb and mutton production, at 16 million pounds, was down 6 percent from September 2000. Sheep slaughter totaled 243,300 head, 10 percent below last year. The average live weight was 135 pounds, up 5 pounds from

September a year ago. January - September red meat production was 33.6 billion pounds, 3 percent below the previous year. Accumulated beef production was down 4 percent to last year, veal was down 11percent, pork was virtually unchanged, and lamb and mutton was down 4 percent.

Consumers May See Lower Beef Prices: By Roxana Hegeman Associated Press Writer

WICHITA, Kan. -- Consumers should find lower prices at their meat counters the rest of this year in the wake of a slowing economy that has created a glut in the nation's cattle markets, analysts said.

The same public uncertainty that has reduced air travel and tourism is also driving down demand for beef at hotels, restaurants and resorts. That's having a big impact on cattle prices, considering that half of the beef raised in this country is eaten outside the home, said James Mintert, Kansas State

More…

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