Cattle Prices

[coalcreekfarms10]

I know this might be a stupid question to some people on this board but I'm going to ask it anyways. I'm pretty new to the cattle business and was hoping somebody could explain to me why prices were so high at this point last year and so much lower currently.

 

[M-5]

Supply and demand , commodities , futures, speculators or everybody and their brother jumped in cow business to get rich. Take your pick, I feel what we experienced in 14 and 15 is an anomaly. The markets fluctuate and you will get thousands of reasons why it was up and why it was down. but it all boils down to supply and demand. right now the supply is good mainly from foreign beef. The prices right now are still good compared to several years ago.

 

[Dave]

Lot of reasons but realize that '14 and '15 were record high prices. And a new record by a lot. Record high prices don't tend to stay at record highs..... well unless it is something I need to buy.

 

[Son of Butch]

Lot of reasons but realize that '14 and '15 were record high prices. And a new record by a lot.
Record high prices don't tend to stay at record highs..... well unless it is something I need to buy.

Correct, markets always fluctuate they never stay the same and every time they set a new record high they either
have to go down or set another new record high.

 

[coalcreekfarms10]

So I'm guessing it's like everything else, cheaper getting it from overseas than in the United States?

 

[callmefence]

The market hit a extreme high.
It was started by the drought in Texas which caused a large portion of the cow herd to go on ice there simply wasn't feed for them. This caused temporarily low prices as huge amounts of cattle went to slaughter.
When those cows were gone and it rained again. Every one wanted to restock at once.
Plus less cows= less calves higher demand.

The worm has turned. Cattle got to high and are crashing in price. Yet the price at the store remains the same. Flood of imported beef. And many cowmen including me retaining to many heifers. Supply is above demand

 

[Son of Butch]

So I'm guessing it's like everything else, cheaper getting it from overseas than in the United States?

In trade agreements there are winners and there are losers.
USA has gotten the short end of the stick more often than not because our politicians are bad at trade negotiations.

IMO
The only way Trump can win is to get people fired up about unfavorable foreign trade agreements.
And convince the general public that he can do better.
Otherwise Hillary is the clear favorite to become president and 4 more years same as the last 8 years.

 

[JMJ Farms]

So I'm guessing it's like everything else, cheaper getting it from overseas than in the United States?

In trade agreements there are winners and there are losers.
USA has gotten the short end of the stick more often than not because our politicians are bad at trade negotiations.

IMO
The only way Trump can win is to get people fired up about unfavorable foreign trade agreements.
And convince the general public that he can do better.
Otherwise Hillary is the clear favorite to become president and 4 more years same as the last 8 years.

More likely that we will face 8 more years like the previous 8 :help: :bang:

 

[Son of Butch]

It's O.K. who needs a leader with experience signing the front of a check when we have a leader/leaders
so very experienced at signing the back of checks?

 

[True Grit Farms]

Australia averages about half the $money in tariffs as the US of A has to pay. When our prices skyrocketed Australia started importing heavily to the US of A. I feel like it was a perfect storm both ways on the beef prices.

 

[Tim/South]

Meat packers were not making enough profit with high beef prices. They began to push pork and chicken and let beef back up. Pork and chicken are controlled markets. Cattle are mostly owned by individual operations.

Australia experienced a drought and the dollar was high which is good for those who export to the U.S. The U.S. imported 4.2 billion dollars worth of beef from Australia. 80% of that was ground beef. Central Beef of Florida held a lot of contracts, mostly government contracts for ground beef. They kept the slaughter bull and weigh cow prices competitive. They were hit with waste violations and forced to stop slaughter. Cheap imported ground beef filled the void.

Late fall/early winter 2015, USDA released a faulty report stating the beef recovery was almost complete. Futures fell, investors lost enthusiasm, banks backed off loaning money to purchase cattle. The report was later adjusted to more realistic numbers.

Most of us retained heifers and did not cull our cows, kept them for one more calf.

The last report I read had feed lots profit at $9 per head.
Packers profit was $198 per head.
Weekly slaughter numbers are back up to around 600,000 (from a low of around 425,000). If we can keep the meat moving off the shelf then prices should pick back up.

We also need an administration that will enforce this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packers_a ... kyards_Act again.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Talking heads say that beef is technically over sold, and should go up in price...
I think there is a lot of beef in the pipeline, and we are in trouble if the dollar stays high and limits exports, unless we can convince the Chinese to eat sweet and sour beef.

 

[JMJ Farms]

I'm gonna play the conspiracy theorist card. I think to some degree it's all an organized effort by the govt. First, manipulate the market so the producers can have a really good year or two. Then snatch the rug out from under them so the packers can make up for their record losses. Give everyone a couple of good years, a couple of bad years, and four or five average years per cycle. Give each player just enough to keep him in the game. And I think they accomplish this mainly through imports and exports.

Now I'm smart enough to know that the govt had nothing to do with the 2011 drought. That just helped complete the perfect storm, resulting in record prices that we will likely not see agin for quite some time, if ever.

 

[Caustic Burno]

With the prices I saw today almost better off selling the cows and the bull and hold on to heifers.
Gonna be a lot of hurt folks this fall before prices turn upward again
Best price I seen through the barn today was a buck thirty.

 

[kenny thomas]

I have always went against the masses by keeping heifers and expanding when prices are low. A heifer kept now should be producing good during the high part of the next cattle cycle and by the time the cycle is over she would be older and maybe ready to cull and be replaced by another cheaper heifer. A heifer kept during the highest part of the cycle is producing best during the lowest part of the cycle and is older and needs to be replaced when prices are high again.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I have always went against the masses by keeping heifers and expanding when prices are low. A heifer kept now should be producing good during the high part of the next cattle cycle and by the time the cycle is over she would be older and maybe ready to cull and be replaced by another cheaper heifer. A heifer kept during the highest part of the cycle is producing best during the lowest part of the cycle and is older and needs to be replaced when prices are high again.

I am going to start buying next week if prices remain this low and sell some older girls cutters and boners are still holding steady. Bull leaves in a couple months to his leased home give him 60 days to court the ladies

 

[1982vett]

I'm gonna play the conspiracy theorist card. I think to some degree it's all an organized effort by the govt. First, manipulate the market so the producers can have a really good year or two. Then snatch the rug out from under them so the packers can make up for their record losses. Give everyone a couple of good years, a couple of bad years, and four or five average years per cycle. Give each player just enough to keep him in the game. And I think they accomplish this mainly through imports and exports.

Now I'm smart enough to know that the govt had nothing to do with the 2011 drought. That just helped complete the perfect storm, resulting in record prices that we will likely not see agin for quite some time, if ever.

you might want to rethink that.....http://www.globalresearch.ca/weather-wa ... rfare/7561 .maybe the Russians did it. :lol2:

 

[HDRider]

I'm gonna play the conspiracy theorist card. I think to some degree it's all an organized effort by the govt. First, manipulate the market so the producers can have a really good year or two. Then snatch the rug out from under them so the packers can make up for their record losses. Give everyone a couple of good years, a couple of bad years, and four or five average years per cycle. Give each player just enough to keep him in the game. And I think they accomplish this mainly through imports and exports.

Now I'm smart enough to know that the govt had nothing to do with the 2011 drought. That just helped complete the perfect storm, resulting in record prices that we will likely not see agin for quite some time, if ever.

you might want to rethink that.....http://www.globalresearch.ca/weather-wa ... .....maybe the Russians did it. :lol2:

The link did not find a file..

 

[Cross-7]

I'm gonna play the conspiracy theorist card. I think to some degree it's all an organized effort by the govt. First, manipulate the market so the producers can have a really good year or two. Then snatch the rug out from under them so the packers can make up for their record losses. Give everyone a couple of good years, a couple of bad years, and four or five average years per cycle. Give each player just enough to keep him in the game. And I think they accomplish this mainly through imports and exports.

Now I'm smart enough to know that the govt had nothing to do with the 2011 drought. That just helped complete the perfect storm, resulting in record prices that we will likely not see agin for quite some time, if ever.

you might want to rethink that.....http://www.globalresearch.ca/weather-wa ... .....maybe the Russians did it. :lol2:

The link did not find a file..

http://www.globalresearch.ca/weather-wa ... rfare/7561

 

[1982vett]

Sorry.....got it fixed now.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/weather-wa ... rfare/7561