Cattle Cycle

[J]

I am new to the term cattle cycle, never herd of it before, can someone tell me what its is, how it affects me and the market, where are we at in the cycle? Thanks ahead of time.

 

[dj]

Some say we are at peak pricing. Some say we are on the downside of the peak.
It relates to herd expansion and contraction in relation to price received for sold beef.
There will be some better explanations coming.

 

[Susie David]

This is a question for the economists but here is a down and dirty insight...three types of inventory and price movemment that are of consideration when planning production and marketing programs, secular trends, cyclical behavior and seasonal patterns. Secular trends are long term indicators that persist over more than one cattle cycle. Cyclical movements tend to follow predictable patterns that repeat themselves. Seasonal variations follow a relatively uniform pattern over many years (high prices in spring lower in late fall). Supply and demand (number of head produced and number of head slaughtered) as well as futures and commodity markets come into play.
That Ag marketing class finally pays off....just kidding, send me your email address and I can send a copy of a text that goes into detail.
I think that we're holding steady. This growth pattern started in '97 when prices were about half of what they are now....the more seasoned ranchers can tell you horror stories.
Hope that this helps...I get carried away some times...a little knowledge is dangerous....Dave Mc

 

[SF]

I'm sure others may have a different definition for you. My definition isn't scientific, just my own experiences after 40+ years. I've found the cycle to be about 10 years per round. out of ten years I find that I will make great profits for about 2 of those 10 years, some losses in spite of everything I may do for about 2 of the ten years, and for about 6 of the ten I make enough to keep my name on the gates. What does this mean? Don't spend it all during those good years. Prepare for the rainy day. What goes up will come down. Right now cattle prices are at record highs. These prices will come down and you want to be able to survive them so you can be there to enjoy those wonderful high prices again.

As I said, this is non-scientific, just my experience.