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ManyHorses

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Cattle prices broke down hard across the board on Friday in response to a combination of factors, none of which support continued high beef prices. Since my February 16th analysis of the Choice/Select spread it has dropped a full $5.00 leaving packers hard put to support the current market.

Packers, faced with consumer resistance on the upper end have opted to cut slaughter in hopes of forcing lower fed cattle prices by waiting out expected additional supplies from Canada beginning March 7th. Whereas packers will still need to process about 600,000/wk the mix will change away from 100% US producers to some US/Canadian mix and then stabilize. That means less demand for US cattle.

Fridays Cattle on Feed Report was equally unsupportive with COF up 2%, placements up 7% and marketings only about even with last year. It all adds up to more US cattle supplies with even more on tap from Canada beginning March 7th.

On my February 16th posting, in anticipation of a possible break in the market I suggested buying a March 100 put for $750.00 as protection - that put closed Friday at $1263.00 and showing a $513.00 profit.

On December 27th just before the mad cow scare dropped the feeder market dropped 5 cents, I had posted another protective trade which closed Friday with $1074.00 profit.

On January 3rd I posted another protective trade which carries a $588.00 profit.


Note: While I am a professional trader, I am not a broker and have no affiliation with any broker. I offer my viewpoints only as a courtesy to folks.
 

TUCO

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muchos caballos --- how does your back feel? Need some BenGay? Is it a little sore, from all of that patting yourself on the back? :lol:
 

Bez

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Actually, I am one who likes these updates. I may agree with them, or disagree with them. But in the end it gives me another view on the markets.

Information is power.

Bez
 

Big D

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As hard as manyhorses has been ridden I believe he deserves to pat himself on the back. I haven't followed his advice because, well I just have my marketing plan and I follow it. I do share his opinion on this market though. However, I have been selling fat cattle on the rail since 1998 and a $3.00 choice select spread in febuary is very common and in my opinion has little bearing on proving anything analytical.
 

ollie

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Richard, as you know you only get to keep it when you take it. You count it when it is in your hand. Are you now advising to cover these hedges?
 

tapeworm

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TUCO":3ejv9okt said:
muchos caballos --- how does your back feel? Need some BenGay? Is it a little sore, from all of that patting yourself on the back? :lol:
I like that about the Ben Gay Tuco....most of those Chicago commode exchange cowmen are all the same...like to brag about there wins but want everbody to forget about there losings. The other guy is righton track to....its really all play money until you make the trade
 

TUCO

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Muldoon --- Si senor. Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez, also known as el raton (the rat). Buenos tardes.


Perdoneme, senor muchos caballos. :oops:
 

tapeworm

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TUCO":3i4gzuz9 said:
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez, also known as el raton (the rat). Buenos tardes.
Hope you meant to say Mario instead of Maria. You not one of those 2 way deals are you??? :D
Luego, Mano!!!!!
 

SF

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I appreciate the info also, even though I have absolutely no desire to buy puts or calls. Thanks.
 

catl

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tapeworm":dqubnorw said:
TUCO":dqubnorw said:
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez, also known as el raton (the rat). Buenos tardes.
Hope you meant to say Mario instead of Maria. You not one of those 2 way deals are you??? :D
Luego, Mano!!!!!
What's a TUCO ? I saw the movie but i guess i wasn't paying attention. Tapeworm,down here we have a lot of spanics that have Marie for a middle name on males. Ain't never figured it out though. I had one in school in middle school named Jose Marie something. By the way,he was a sissy. :lol:
 

Medic24

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I for one, apprectiate manyhorses , and one of these days, I will also figure out what in the hell he is saying and maybe follow some of his advice to see if I can make or lose a few bucks. :lol: :lol: :lol:
 

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