Buying Feeder Calves vs. Momma Cows

[mwj]

Dave it is not the calculator if your cows have doubled. Your calculator told you to stop bidding on cows that would have made you some decent money.

 

[Dave]

Dave it is not the calculator if your cows have doubled. Your calculator told you to stop bidding on cows that would have made you some decent money.

No my balance at the bank and the fact that 300,000 acres of grass burned up last summer told me it was time to stop bidding.

 

[mwj]

No my balance at the bank and the fact that 300,000 acres of grass burned up last summer told me it was time to stop bidding.

As in all things it is hindsight. If it was 300,000 acres of grass I would think that the cow price would be down. Some times things are not as obvious as they seem. I think a big factor in risk taking is age. The older we get the more we look at the time it takes to recoup loses from guessing wrong.

 

[chevytaHOE5674]

I could use about 40 pairs to fill some ground I bought and fenced. My napkin math at today's prices says I need 5 to 6 calves out of each before they pay for themselves and the daily upkeep if today's prices hold that long. If prices drop back that timeline gets extended, add in some mortality, sickness, open culls, etc and suddenly like Kenny I'll just sit on my hands and watch the world go by.

Now I could be wrong and the market could rise another 50% and my timeline would get shorter.... but I never get that lucky.

 

[Dave]

No hind sight has nothing to do with it. I bought in the fall because my crystal ball said with calves this high that come spring everyone is going to want to buy cows. There was plenty of hay available at a reasonable price so I bought early. I stopped buying because I spent what I had to spend and I filled available pasture. Prices here have been real similar to elsewhere. Losing that grass hasn't affected the cattle market. What it has affected is the price people want for rented pasture.

 

[farmerjan]

People are paying stupid prices for cattle now... Do I think it will go down to $.50 or 1.00/lb,,,, no... but we will have a fairly steep correction... I see it happening in 2026 or 2027.... hoping to be good for this fall and spring 2026... then all bets are off in my book. We have had 2 to 1 bull calves to heifer calves, born this spring... so it would be great to have prices hold into spring 2026...
I am really considering selling down more now... trying to talk to son about it... make the money now and have "extra grass" for awhile...

 

[GoWyo]

Sitting here watching weather over next couple of weeks to see if we are going to get enough rain to make some sort of grass crop. Have the first 10% of the herd marked on the spreadsheet for liquidation if storms through the end of the month don't pan out.