BSE

[Anonymous]

OK, technically the posts I deleted didn't contain profanity. But the intent was there. This is an important issue; please continue a BSE discussion.

We're losing about 10% of our export market woldwide. That's going to affect prices for sure. The news media that I've watched have handled the news very well. That's a plus.

 

[Anonymous]

Now that a case of BSE (Mad Cow) has turned up in the United States, what do ya'll think will happen to cattle prices? Will the bottom drop out, will prices slowly decline over time, or will it hold steady? I am thinking we might have a decline in market prices into early next year, since we will probably have an abundance of cattle here in America (less exports). Look on the bright side, that will be a good time to buy!

**********************

> OK, technically the posts I
> deleted didn't contain profanity.
> But the intent was there. This is
> an important issue; please
> continue a BSE discussion.

> We're losing about 10% of our
> export market woldwide. That's
> going to affect prices for sure.
> The news media that I've watched
> have handled the news very well.
> That's a plus.

 

[Anonymous]

Let' see how well our government handles the situation with an election coming up. George Bush is a known supporter of American farmers as he is one himself. Does anyone else think the media is ruining things for us prematurely? The entire world has a beef scare and clinical proof isn't available yet? Frankly I still have a great deal of confidence that this issue will be cleared up and we will be back to business as usual in several months. I was planning to market a load of calves in two weeks. I'll be watching the bulletins to see what happens with live cattle prices. If they take a dump, I'll have to hold the calves on thin pastures away from the cows, wean them and wait for the smoke to rise. I wonder if the industry is thinking the same thing? When the smoke does rise it will still be difficult on pricing because of the volume available.

> OK, technically the posts I
> deleted didn't contain profanity.
> But the intent was there. This is
> an important issue; please
> continue a BSE discussion.

> We're losing about 10% of our
> export market woldwide. That's
> going to affect prices for sure.
> The news media that I've watched
> have handled the news very well.
> That's a plus.

 

[Anonymous]

I think cattle prices will drop. We export 10-15% of the beef that we produce. Japan and Korea are our two largest importers and both have announced they won't import US beef. That 10% will have to be absorbed by the US market. That should result in lower prices all along the supply chain. The TV news media seem to be handling the situation well. Long term, we'll just have to see. This announcement of BSE isn't going to stop me from eating a CAB rib roast for dinner tonight!! Happy Holidays to everyone....

of BSE (Mad Cow)
> has turned up in the United
> States, what do ya'll think will
> happen to cattle prices? Will the
> bottom drop out, will prices
> slowly decline over time, or will
> it hold steady? I am thinking we
> might have a decline in market
> prices into early next year, since
> we will probably have an abundance
> of cattle here in America (less
> exports). Look on the bright side,
> that will be a good time to buy!

> **********************

 

[Anonymous]

Prices hit the limit today, are expected tomorrow and the next couple days. I heard that they are going to increase the decline limit. So then we will be losing our skins even quicker. I'm glad our last set of calves that we bought were all heifers so we might be able to make them into cows til the prices rise again.

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[Anonymous]

> Let' see how well our government
> handles the situation with an
> election coming up. George Bush is
> a known supporter of American
> farmers as he is one himself. Does
> anyone else think the media is
> ruining things for us prematurely?
> The entire world has a beef scare
> and clinical proof isn't available
> yet? Frankly I still have a great
> deal of confidence that this issue
> will be cleared up and we will be
> back to business as usual in
> several months. I was planning to
> market a load of calves in two
> weeks. I'll be watching the
> bulletins to see what happens with
> live cattle prices. If they take a
> dump, I'll have to hold the calves
> on thin pastures away from the
> cows, wean them and wait for the
> smoke to rise. I wonder if the
> industry is thinking the same
> thing? When the smoke does rise it
> will still be difficult on pricing
> because of the volume available.

Good points, it will take some time after this clears up for prices to recover just due to the heavy supply side of the the market, let alone the media's magnification of it all.



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[Anonymous]

I am sitting on a partial load of feeder calves now and I am like everyone else wondering what the fall out will be.It has been an excellent year to be in the business with prices on the rise all year alot of money has been made to this point.I was wondering if someone from Canada on the board could outline what the prices did up there when BSE was discovered?Also I am hearing alot about a national ID system mandated by the government.Does anyone know about Emerge Interactive and what role they will play in the ID system?Also I was wondering about the timing of the disclousere and if announceing it during a holiday was planned in order to cloud the situation or try to lessen the price blow.Due to Christmas and new year we really can't test markets fully for about two weeks.Any thoughts?

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[Anonymous]

What happened to the prices in Canada? Finished steers sold for $650 which had been worth about $1400 the week before the discovery. Cows are still worth only 3-15 CENTS per pound--if you can get someone to buy them. Others can give you a better idea if you need it...

 

[Anonymous]

> What happened to the prices in
> Canada? Finished steers sold for
> $650 which had been worth about
> $1400 the week before the
> discovery. Cows are still worth
> only 3-15 CENTS per pound--if you
> can get someone to buy them.
> Others can give you a better idea
> if you need it... And a Happy New Year to you to V! (just kidding)

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[Anonymous]

> What happened to the prices in
> Canada? Finished steers sold for
> $650 which had been worth about
> $1400 the week before the
> discovery. Cows are still worth
> only 3-15 CENTS per pound--if you
> can get someone to buy them.
> Others can give you a better idea
> if you need it...

stockers this fall held at break-even with prices at $1.00 to $1.20 pp for 600lb steers. Heifers were quite a bit softer and more volitile ( $.50 -.80) The real kicker was in the dairy cattle, finished Holstein steers at around 1500 -1700lb no market or .10 - .25 (COP at $.65 pp), drop bull calves; $250+ prior to May 20 went to no market to $50 dollar charge to farmers to have them removed, and now have bounced up to aprox. $120.00 for top quality. Cows; jersey cull cows, no market; holstein 5 to 15 cents; beef cull cows 10 to 25 cents with top prices to 50 cents. There was a significant market in the U.S. for replacement cows (free-stall friendly) before May 20th with good quality springing holstein heifers (2yr) bringing CDN$2000 to 2500+. There is no market for those cattle anymore. The Canadian milk market is divided amoung it's dairy farmers through a milk quota system such that a dairyman produces a set amount of milk every day which he gets paid a fair price for but over and above that amount he must pay to dispose of it. With all the replacement heifers comming into the milk line now there is a lot milk being dumped and cows are fed less concentrates to reduce production. Its a big mess!

That was probably more info. than what you wanted but the only sure thing is that you are in for a hell of a roller-coaster ride (and it wont be fun)



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[Anonymous]

Thank you Jack and Vicki.That sounds very tragic and I think gives me a better understanding of what you are going through and what we might expect.I have been told that Canada is more dependent on exporting beef than the US is but it sounds horrible.Thankyou.

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