breeding stock sale

[talltimber]

Went to a little sale yesterday. This was a breeding stock only sale, mostly made up of 3n1's, open pairs, bred hfrs in varying stages, with also a few bulls. There was also a number of pretty plain cattle there of all ages and stages that I didn't stay for. Those were probably the money makers.
The 3n1's brought in the ballpark of 2300 to 2750. Open pairs were generally 2300 to 2500. The bred heifers were from 1350 to around 2100 or so iirc. I don't have my notes in front of me. The lion's share of best bred heifers were in the 1750 to 1850 range. After the frame size started dropping off they were selling short bred hfrs 1350 to 1550 or so.

 

[True Grit Farms]

That's a strong price for our area but people are paying it. There's still a lot of optimism in the cattle business? Or is the future that bleak in farming? Bull sales have been been really cheap, last week bred heifers averaged more than the bulls at our neighbors annual sale.

 

[kenny thomas]

That's several hundred to a thousand higher than here. Very highest pair I have seen was 1600.

 

[NolanCountyAG]

Went to the Bradley 3 Ranch bull sale yesterday and prices seemed pretty strong.

 

[talltimber]

TG, I talked with a consignor before the sale. He farms and runs about 200 mommas. He said he started bringing hfrs to the sale two years ago. He had about 20 head of AI'd hfrs, the smaller frame/bone type of hfrs, though they looked good but maybe not quite as slick and a little mud and hair on them, that was bringing 1350 to 1550 or so. He said his hfrs had been making more than the farming the last couple of years.

 

[True Grit Farms]

TG, I talked with a consignor before the sale. He farms and runs about 200 mommas. He said he started bringing hfrs to the sale two years ago. He had about 20 head of AI'd hfrs, the smaller frame/bone type of hfrs, though they looked good but maybe not quite as slick and a little mud and hair on them, that was bringing 1350 to 1550 or so. He said his hfrs had been making more than the farming the last couple of years.

My thinking is when all these heifer calves start coming on line the cattle prices are going to tank. It seems to be the circle of life in the cattle business.

 

[farmerjan]

Reading an article in one of the beef publications, and said that numbers will peak again in the 2020-2022 years and prices will be off again. Then, more older farmers will be getting out and numbers will decrease as cattle are sold for slaughter because they cannot be sold for replacements for a breakeven or profitable price... So take it with a grain of salt, but I have felt we have been heading in that direction. I want to be down 50 head by then; and trying to do a better job of feeding them off grass and pasture and selling more small square bales to all these small time weekend farmers and such. Maybe feed the calves out a little longer too to utilize the hay. We'll see, but I don't think that you will see prices any better overall between now and then. Maybe a few small spikes, but not an overall average increase. HOPE I AM WRONG.....

 

[MRRherefords]

Very best thing selling around here is bred heifers. Hardest thing to do is ride out a storm. Hopefully there will be an end in the future and some sort of spike.

 

[Stocker Steve]

He said his hfrs had been making more than the farming the last couple of years.

but he was losing money farming...

 

[Stocker Steve]

That's a strong price for our area but people are paying it. There's still a lot of optimism in the cattle business? Or is the future that bleak in farming?

Corn is a money loser for most.
Wheat is a money loser for most.
Milk is a money loser for most.
Pork and poultry are industrialized.
That leaves beef, beans, goats, and direct marketing. I see some dairy guys buying old beef cows here. But, I can not pencil an acceptable commodity cow/calf profit at most of those breeding stock prices...

So if we are fully stocked with commodity cows - - we are either:
poor at enterprise analysis
not planning to make a profit after depreciation
betting some additional export increases to bale us out
or a combination of the above

 

[True Grit Farms]

That's a strong price for our area but people are paying it. There's still a lot of optimism in the cattle business? Or is the future that bleak in farming?

Corn is a money loser for most.
Wheat is a money loser for most.
Milk is a money loser for most.
Pork and poultry are industrialized.
That leaves beef, beans, goats, and direct marketing. I see some dairy guys buying old beef cows here. But, I can not pencil an acceptable commodity cow/calf profit at most of those breeding stock prices...

So if we are fully stocked with commodity cows - - we are either:
poor at enterprise analysis
not planning to make a profit after depreciation
betting some additional export increases to bale us out
or a combination of the above

My hope is a combination of all of the above. I'm doing some retained ownership on everything that I can't sell off the farm now, and planning on breeding more to the beef numbers. The trick to any business is figuring out how to turn a profit in a down market and keeping your head above water. The good times will come back around if you can survive till then.

 

[Stocker Steve]

The trick to any business is figuring out how to turn a profit in a down market and keeping your head above water. The good times will come back around if you can survive till then.

This is true for cyclical businesses.

Some would say the current commodity surpluses and pricing are more the norm, than 2010-2014. Then how do you handle an extended period with reduced operating funds and low prices? We are starting to see a lot of "retirement auctions" here.

 

[cattle60]

Tall Timber, Where was that sale? I didn't hear anything about one like that.

 

[talltimber]

Fruitland