border opening ???

[lunker]

When is the trial date for rcalf vs. usda ?
I've heard both june and july.(what day)
If usda wins will the border be opened that day,
or will they set a day.
I have about 20 cows and calves that I planned on selling when the
grass starts thinning out in a couple of months.
(but I don't want to wait till after the trial, its not worth the risk.)
lunker

 

[2centsworth]

I believe the trial date is July 7. I am not sure whether the border opens that day if USDA wins.

 

[Bez]

Lunker

Relax the border will not open for at least a year - maybe never.

Too many delay and / or appeal options available to whichever side you support.

Better to plan on your financial options as to each day. When you get those 100% "see into the future" glasses can you please promise to send me a pair? :lol:

As I am from north of the border you might be surprized if I tell you I do not care if it opens. In fact despite the difficulties, we are now capable of more "in country" slaughter than before the border was closed. A good thing for us.

If all goes according to my dreams, we will be completely self sufficient within two / three more years.

Eventually there will be more markets and more money available to us on this side of the line - and no more dependence upon a market that can close at any time due to legal or political wrangling.

Regards

Bez

 

[lunker]

Thank you Bez and 2centsworth.
My fear is that when the border opens there is going to be a sharp
drop in prices for 2-6 months.(I realize that it will probably only
be a short term drop.)

I would have little concern if the Japanese would quit dragging their feet
on taking our beef.

With the canadian border having been closed for 2 full years there has to
be 1-5 million head of fat steers and heffers on top of what you normally
would have.

It scares me to think of how the market would be affected if we don't
have the Japanese taking some of these cattle.

lunker

 

[Cattle Rack Rancher]

Thank you Bez and 2centsworth.
My fear is that when the border opens there is going to be a sharp
drop in prices for 2-6 months.(I realize that it will probably only
be a short term drop.)

I would have little concern if the Japanese would quit dragging their feet
on taking our beef.

With the canadian border having been closed for 2 full years there has to
be 1-5 million head of fat steers and heffers on top of what you normally
would have.

It scares me to think of how the market would be affected if we don't
have the Japanese taking some of these cattle.

lunker

Actually, we are pretty current on our marketings for younger cattle. What we have alot of are slaughter cows. All the border opening would do for us is give us someplace to shift our younger cattle to so we can slaughter more cull cows. That said, the infrastructure for shipping live animals has been totally dismantled and will take some time to be rebuilt so there won't be a real surge of cattle coming when the border opens. It will be a slow trickle at the start and slowly build. This should allow time to clear the inventory of South American and Australian beef out of the American system. Any drop in prices will be short term and guided by those who are unfamiliar with the market.

 

[Bez]

Lunker

At the risk of insulting you - and I assure you I am not - as CRR states - forget the hype of a sharp drop in cattle pricing. There are not enough trucks left in this country to haul cattle south. Trust me on this. Cattle hauling industry is about destroyed. Those who attempt to persuade you otherwise are simply doing their protectionistic thing.

I would doubt there would be a price notice for a long time - if - and that is the rub - if the border opens.

So ignore the doomsayers - and there are many - some may even profit off those who might believe them - go about your business and fear not.

You might want to develop the Caustic sales method - before you ask - PM him if you want - and do the math - he is right on the money when it comes to saling cattle.

Forget the Japanese - your government is now trying to force them into taking your beef - the Japanese hackles are now up and face saving will make them delay for a long time.

You do not have to worry anyways - your country eats more beef than it can produce - your export beef excess was supplied by the imports you managed from other countries.

You import tonnes as well - even today. There are many empty feed lots in the USA - no animals to fill them - do a search and you will find them. We send more boxed beef to the USA now than before the BSE crisis.

It is tough for USA producers to fill those feedlots and at the same time increase USA herd numbers to the point where you are completely self sufficient in live animals. To date the USA has been unsuccessful in this endeavour - that may change in the future. But as it stands right now - even if you could export to Japan - you do not have the beef available to do it without increasing imports.

I figure you might wanna' bone up on the situation a bit more - keeps you smarter and makes you money.

Bez

 

[DOC HARRIS]

Lunker

Relax ther border will not open for at least a year - maybe never.

Too many delay and / or appeal options available to whichever side you support.

Better to plan on your financial options as to each day. When you get those 100% "see into the future" glasses can you please promise to send me a pair? :lol:

As I am from north of the border you might be surprized if I tell you I do not care if it opens. In fact despite the difficulties, we are now capable of more "in country" slaughter than before the border was closed. A good thing for us.

If all goes according to my dreams, we will be completely self sufficient within two / three more years.

Eventually there will be more markets and more money available to us on this side of the line - and no more dependence upon a market that can close at any time due to legal or political wrangling.

Regards

Bez

Bez - You sound as if you have "Seen the Elephant" also! I have to agree with you, and I am not North of the border. However, looking at the situation from the point of view of the Seedstock producer in Canada it does limit you breeders insofar as widespread acquisition of Genetics is concerned. I try to look at the pragmatic realities from both sides - if possible. Any way you look at the subject - it is a tough call. I have to empathize with you. Doc

 

[Bez]

Doc

Bez - You sound as if you have "Seen the Elephant" also!

How true.

looking at the situation from the point of view of the Seedstock producer in Canada it does limit you breeders insofar as widespread acquisition of Genetics is concerned.

Be that as it may, there is still an almost unlimited supply of out cross genetics available to us folks up here. We are importing from other countries - semen for some of our animals comes from Aussie Land and New Zealand - planning to bring in a few embryoes from down there as well.

The stock piles of US genetics is quite large - in fact it could be listed as huge, and there are some real good bulls that are very young - brought in from south of the border within the past couple of months - special agreement with our two governments - read it in the Western Producer.

Wife and I keep an inventory of about 300 straws on hand at all times - so that will keep us going for at least three more years without any supplement. We get the right bull grown up on this place and it will last even longer.

We actually are using semen from a bull that has been dead for almost 20 years at this time - not many of those straws left in the world, but we have "friends" in many places" - first calf on the ground from a home grown bull out of that semen came today. Looking good - may be a keeper.

Aparently we are still able to import frozen genetics from South Africa and a few other places in Europe - not too sure on the countries.

We will get by - tough times are here for a long time - but we will not go down easily and if this operation does go down - well, it will not be for the lack of trying.

Cheers

Bez