Bloodbath at the sale

[boondocks]

Jeez, went to the annual New York registered angus and hereford sale yesterday. Man there were some long faces.
Wasn't selling or buying, just trying to get an idea where prices are. Suffice it to say, I'm now gonna list a registered black angus (second-time mama; will re-calve in Sept. at exactly age 3,to a great registered AI bull) for a bunch less than what I was hoping for. Like, for only a few hundred bucks over what I was paying for 8 m.o. weanlings 3-5 years ago.

There were perfectly nice 3-in-1's (with beautiful calves at side) going for 2k. A couple or so nice older cows (say, 2011 vintage) short-bred going for around 800. Herefords averaged less but on an apples-to-apples basis seemed to be holding their price better. And they were mostly hachet-azzed.

I knew prices had softened but this was humbling. Wish I was just getting in now! :cry2: :cry2: :cry2:

 

[Brute 23]

:shock: op:

 

[Aaron]

Just wait until next year. Looking forward to buying more open heifers at even cheaper prices.

 

[Stocker Steve]

After the market collapsed last summer and fall, the talking heads predicted continued price declines.
Of course the market went up the last 6 months. Now they are predicting price declines sooner or later.
Must be nice to always be right!

On of the more thoughtful pieces recently asked if you could turn a profit by purchasing a commercial cow for U$S 1300 to 1400?

 

[farmerjan]

Those prices are in the range of what we have been seeing here for the past 6-9 months. Some nice conditioned black commercial cows with calves brought $1200-1600 2 weeks ago and I thought they were a little high. The breds were bringing $800-1000. I look for prices to be softer this fall and next year, even with the fires and late blizzard losses from earlier this spring. I honestly don't look for the prices to improve much before 2019 or 2020 and that will depend on the export situation. Milk prices are falling again and there will be more dairies selling out, because they have not been able to get caught up in the few months the prices rose, after the horrible drop into the $14.50/15.50 per hundred weight last year. Prices were up to about $19/$20 per hundred but didn't stay there for more than a couple months and they can't catch up with prices already dropping to the $17.50 range and forecast to fall more. One month they are crying surplus, then 2 months later they are saying they can't get enough milk and are having to truck it from here to timbuktoo... When these dairies start selling out there will be a surplus of cull beef. Feeder calf prices will fall again, then in 6 months they will be crying since they can't find enough calves to put on feed...Holstein bull calves here doubled in price in less than 2 weeks with the recent losses from the weather...from $100 to over $200 head last week. They were $50-60 just a month ago. There is no rhyme or reason to it anymore.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Selling commodities is a tough game, but there is always someone who has figured out how to be a low cost producer.

 

[Nesikep]

My dad spoke to our sale barn auctioneer, he was saying stronger prices here this fall.. I'm not pinning any hope on that though.
If I were to take a WAG at it, I'd say continued declines.. I'm quite certain less people will yell at me if I'm wrong!

 

[boondocks]

Farmerjan, your background with the dairy side of things is always helpful to those of us (ahem, me) who don't always keep on top of dairy, and reminds me to always consider how much the current trend in dairy culls influences the beef side of things as well. Conversely, when beefer prices were going up, lots of dairy farmers around us decided to "get into" at least a little beef, so that helped our prices at that time.

In terms of the prices I listed above, these were some pretty good bloodlines too--nice registered stock, not junk. Which made it even more sobering. SO sobering, I wanted a drink afterwards :drink:

For those of us who just got in over the past few years and have been building our herds and just now getting really ready to start selling some small groups, the timing is especially painful. I have a nice 6yo registered mama (has had 4 nice calves) that instead of re-breeding I may just burger. or dog food. Jackals, whatever.

 

[kilroy60]

We were kinda hoping that things would be picking up a little within the next few weeks. Have several steers to take to the barn soon and also have a few older cows which have been breed back to take also. I guess I'll take whatever I can get and just let them go. I also am fearing that this may be another dry summer. If so, we'll take another beating when we start to run low on hay and have to thin our herds.

 

[M-5]

2014 made people think that every calf was a 1000.00 and good cows 2500.00 in reality it's no different than it is historically. Of course everyone wants higher prices but if your basing your break even on 14 your not gonna make it

 

[artesianspringsfarm]

Boondocks,

I wish I would have known you were there! I was there, sitting in the front with the green trucker hat (buying the cheap 3 in 1's that had a pedigree I liked). I do agree that the sale was very soft but you cant go all doom and gloom from one sale. THe weekend before was the NYBPA sale along with the Trowbridge sale and the numbers there were quite strong. I think the problem with the sale Saturday was that there were a ton of consignors and no one came with their buying hats on. This is typically bull buying season around here and even Robert is having another sale this weekend for bulls. I don't need more head, but at those prices I bought enough to finish selling out my commercial head, getting younger, and will get about even money all said and done. Shoot me a PM when you are at the next NY sale. I won't make Robert's bull sale because I will be out of town. The WYE bull I bought with him was in the pasture just before the farm there.

 

[Supa Dexta]

I have a nice 6yo registered mama (has had 4 nice calves) that instead of re-breeding I may just burger. or dog food. Jackals, whatever.

That makes no sense.

 

[ez14.]

Those prices are in the range of what we have been seeing here for the past 6-9 months. Some nice conditioned black commercial cows with calves brought $1200-1600 2 weeks ago and I thought they were a little high. The breds were bringing $800-1000. I look for prices to be softer this fall and next year, even with the fires and late blizzard losses from earlier this spring. I honestly don't look for the prices to improve much before 2019 or 2020 and that will depend on the export situation. Milk prices are falling again and there will be more dairies selling out, because they have not been able to get caught up in the few months the prices rose, after the horrible drop into the $14.50/15.50 per hundred weight last year. Prices were up to about $19/$20 per hundred but didn't stay there for more than a couple months and they can't catch up with prices already dropping to the $17.50 range and forecast to fall more. One month they are crying surplus, then 2 months later they are saying they can't get enough milk and are having to truck it from here to timbuktoo... When these dairies start selling out there will be a surplus of cull beef. Feeder calf prices will fall again, then in 6 months they will be crying since they can't find enough calves to put on feed...Holstein bull calves here doubled in price in less than 2 weeks with the recent losses from the weather...from $100 to over $200 head last week. They were $50-60 just a month ago. There is no rhyme or reason to it anymore.

wish we were getting those milk prices! Around $15.00 here. $17.50 is almost breakeven that would make things a LITTLE easier

 

[Brute 23]

I have a nice 6yo registered mama (has had 4 nice calves) that instead of re-breeding I may just burger. or dog food. Jackals, whatever.

That makes no sense.

I thought the same thing... seemed odd. :???:

 

[Caustic Burno]

Jeez, went to the annual New York registered angus and hereford sale yesterday. Man there were some long faces.
Wasn't selling or buying, just trying to get an idea where prices are. Suffice it to say, I'm now gonna list a registered black angus (second-time mama; will re-calve in Sept. at exactly age 3,to a great registered AI bull) for a bunch less than what I was hoping for. Like, for only a few hundred bucks over what I was paying for 8 m.o. weanlings 3-5 years ago.

There were perfectly nice 3-in-1's (with beautiful calves at side) going for 2k. A couple or so nice older cows (say, 2011 vintage) short-bred going for around 800. Herefords averaged less but on an apples-to-apples basis seemed to be holding their price better. And they were mostly hachet-azzed.

I knew prices had softened but this was humbling. Wish I was just getting in now! :cry2: :cry2: :cry2:

You would have really had hurt feelings here with registered cattle.
Good bull will still bring decent money
just doing the quick math they are averaging 100 bucks a month up to 24 months. 3k is about the top I have seen lately at a bull sale.

 

[farmerjan]

Those prices are in the range of what we have been seeing here for the past 6-9 months. Some nice conditioned black commercial cows with calves brought $1200-1600 2 weeks ago and I thought they were a little high. The breds were bringing $800-1000. I look for prices to be softer this fall and next year, even with the fires and late blizzard losses from earlier this spring. I honestly don't look for the prices to improve much before 2019 or 2020 and that will depend on the export situation. Milk prices are falling again and there will be more dairies selling out, because they have not been able to get caught up in the few months the prices rose, after the horrible drop into the $14.50/15.50 per hundred weight last year. Prices were up to about $19/$20 per hundred but didn't stay there for more than a couple months and they can't catch up with prices already dropping to the $17.50 range and forecast to fall more. One month they are crying surplus, then 2 months later they are saying they can't get enough milk and are having to truck it from here to timbuktoo... When these dairies start selling out there will be a surplus of cull beef. Feeder calf prices will fall again, then in 6 months they will be crying since they can't find enough calves to put on feed...Holstein bull calves here doubled in price in less than 2 weeks with the recent losses from the weather...from $100 to over $200 head last week. They were $50-60 just a month ago. There is no rhyme or reason to it anymore.

wish we were getting those milk prices! Around $15.00 here. $17.50 is almost breakeven that would make things a LITTLE easier

ez14; We have a bit more of a fluid milk price base here than you do as I think you are more in the area of cheese making. We don't get paid on components, SNF or CY, but only on BF and premiums for low SCC. I heard that there was a milk co-op that gave farmers a 30 day "pink slip" and told them to find another outlet for their milk and that only about 25% of them did. Was it in Wisc? What the he// does a farmer do in that case, other than sell at a big loss, and go bankrupt, or worse? Part of this is directed towards the smaller farmer and trying to put them out in favor of big farms, shipping half and whole trailer loads at a time etc and so forth. That will give the milk companies more control and it is trying to go in the direction of the "chickenization integration". Most of the dairy farmers in this area are getting alot older also, very few young people want the work, headaches, and stress of 7/24 anymore with no financial incentive to have a decent life. Most aren't asking for a windfall, just to be able to make a living. The ones that are still making it are the mennonites, but even from them I am hearing alot more rumblings of how difficult it is and many are adding poultry houses to diversify. Then they are at the beck and call of the turkey and chicken companies....I don't know what this country is going to do when it is all owned and controlled by a few mega companies and then they are sold out to foreign enterprises and they grab us by the balls and say, okay, screw you, you will pay this or go without. Not to mention the biosecurity and what if those few sources are infected and there is a big selloff/dieout or something like what happened in britain but on a bigger scale due to the larger scale of farming here. We are losing our diversity, our foundation of breeds for seedstock, and our security, in many of the livestock sectors. It is sad and scary for the next generations coming up.

 

[farmerjan]

@boondocks; I feel for you there because you also have to fight the long hard winters. I wish we had sold 50 head of cows back 3 years ago because we could be buying 100 for what the 50 would have brought. We did sell more heifers and I am glad. I sat at sales those few years ago and just shook my head at guys paying 2500 and more for grade commercial bred cows; I kept telling everyone I knew that the prices were going to take a big hit and it seemed no one was willing to believe it after 2-3 years of increasing returns on the steers. Who ever heard of steer calves, 500 lb.feeders, bringing $3.00 lb? It was nuts and I refused to let my son even consider buying anything. We did keep back some heifers, and I thought we should have sold more, and he recently told a friend/dairy farmer a couple of weeks ago that he should have listened to me because we would have been much better off if we had cut back more and been in a position to buy now. But, it is all hindsight. I had just been through too many years of the roller coaster prices to think that those high prices would last. Saw it happen with hogs. Had a couple of years that I was selling 30 lb feeder pigs for 2.00 lb then finished hogs were down to .10 lb for 225 lbs. It was awful. Feeder pigs are harder to find now due to the control of the hog industry. There is a niche market for them, but the days of the "pigs being called the mortgage lifter" are gone.

Pretty sad when milk was bringing 17.50/100 wt in the late 80's with inputs 25 to 50% of what they are now. 35 years later and we are still getting the same price and inputs are 2-3 times what they were. But we are supposed to tighten our belt and get more efficient. To he// with having a decent living wage for the owner. It is no wonder the small farmer, independents, sell their land for development when they are ready to retire. And all of us small guys have outside jobs to support a "hobby" that should be adding to our income instead of needing our income to support it.
Do you realize that more than 70% of farmers work another job, or have a spouse that works full time off the farm to be able to provide just for the required insurance and all. It is really sad.

 

[Nesikep]

Couple great posts there Farmerjan, and I wholeheartedly agree

I have relatives in europe, and there it's a little different, but the end result is the same,.. Over there, they get completely flooded with paperwork so the farmer isn't farming anymore...

 

[farmerjan]

Couple great posts there Farmerjan, and I wholeheartedly agree

I have relatives in europe, and there it's a little different, but the end result is the same,.. Over there, they get completely flooded with paperwork so the farmer isn't farming anymore...

Thank you. Sometimes I get on my soapbox and "write a book" but I really truly feel for the smaller independent farmer anymore. And forget trying to get started unless you are willing to work " 2 full-time jobs", like my son and I do. He wants to retire to the farm but some days we wonder if it is worth it. Even the ones with paid for farms are feeling it.
100 years or so ago, being a farmer meant financial security, independence, and a certain amount of prestige/respect in the community. You busted your butt and achieved something, had something to show for the long hours, and supported a family, and something to leave for the next generation. Today ??????

 

[js1234]

Couple great posts there Farmerjan, and I wholeheartedly agree

I have relatives in europe, and there it's a little different, but the end result is the same,.. Over there, they get completely flooded with paperwork so the farmer isn't farming anymore...

100 years or so ago, being a farmer meant financial security, independence, and a certain amount of prestige/respect in the community. You busted your butt and achieved something, had something to show for the long hours, and supported a family, and something to leave for the next generation. Today ??????

I think in many, many cases, it still does.