Big runs at Texas sale barns

[libertygarden]

@jltrent ain't that the truth.

 

[Otha]

Looks like the Saturday sale in my area saw a 15cent jump in packer prices. Almost back to were we were before the 4th of July. Makes me want to sell some more cows sense we still haven't had any rain.

 

[Warren Allison]

My point was his inconsistency. He said before that we were the backbone. Now he says that we're done for. I doubt it. Too many mouths.

Nothing inconsistent at all in what @Caustic Burno said. Over 90% of the nation's cattle is produced by people with 50 cows or less, and most of them have 30 cows are less. Most of these are owned by people who have businesses and in need of tax shelters. Fuel, feed, fertilizer costs, ever increasing property taxes and the ever-increasing price to buy or lease pasture and hay fields, are going to put them out of business. Large corporations need these shelters too, and have bought out row crop and cattle operations over the years. They can reduce input costs simply because of the buying power. It is the same economic scenario as with small independent grocery stores and mom-pop hardware and building supply stores inability to compete with the huge chains.

 

[SBMF 2015]

Feeder prices on Superior looked pretty good today. 500-600 pound steers were over $2.00. Their heifer mates in the $1.80 to slightly over $2.00. I saw one draft of 850 weaned steers weighing 515 from Dillon Montana that brought $2.5250. That is $1,300 for a 515 pound calf. I wouldn't mind having that check to cash.

Dad called me all excited, he saw some 8wts bring $1.94 this morning!

 

[Stocker Steve]

That is not supported by the data. USDA says the heifer numbers in feed lots is up .Large areas of the us are in worse drought conditions this year then last year.

Look at the context, this is a local thing.
We sold down last year and got rain this spring.
Hayman called yesterday and offered $30/4x5 delivered.

 

[Rafter S]

Nothing inconsistent at all in what @Caustic Burno said. Over 90% of the nation's cattle is produced by people with 50 cows or less, and most of them have 30 cows are less. Most of these are owned by people who have businesses and in need of tax shelters. Fuel, feed, fertilizer costs, ever increasing property taxes and the ever-increasing price to buy or lease pasture and hay fields, are going to put them out of business. Large corporations need these shelters too, and have bought out row crop and cattle operations over the years. They can reduce input costs simply because of the buying power. It is the same economic scenario as with small independent grocery stores and mom-pop hardware and building supply stores inability to compete with the huge chains.

I won't argue about it, but I'm not sure about big operations pushing small ones out of business. I don't know about other places, but here where I live there are a lot of cattle kept on places that are 50 acres or less, and hayfields may not be half that big. I don't see how having cattle on places like that would ever be feasible for big operations.

 

[Otha]

The city people are pushing out the small and big farmers alike here. They are moving out from DFW or from other states and paying double what even the big time farmers are willing to pay. Seeing lots of acres just sit and some are just cut for hay instead of cattle or crops. That hay deal is working great for them right now but next time we have a raining year they aren't gonna be happy about what they get offered for that junk hay they are growing. I call it junk because most of them aren't fertilizing in a manner that's going to sustain good hay quality.

 

[Caustic Burno]

The city people are pushing out the small and big farmers alike here. They are moving out from DFW or from other states and paying double what even the big time farmers are willing to pay. Seeing lots of acres just sit and some are just cut for hay instead of cattle or crops. That hay deal is working great for them right now but next time we have a raining year they aren't gonna be happy about what they get offered for that junk hay they are growing. I call it junk because most of them aren't fertilizing in a manner that's going to sustain good hay quality.

The exact reason Port City Stockyards went out of business in 2009. They went from two sales a week to one to being out of business.

 

[Caustic Burno]

My point was his inconsistency. He said before that we were the backbone. Now he says that we're done for. I doubt it. Too many mouths.

No inconsistency at all the small producers drove the economy. The majority are aging out, this is not difficult to understand.
Just a few years ago my community supported three tractor dealerships only one is left. The other two didn't shutdown after years from too much business.

 

[BFE]

I won't argue about it, but I'm not sure about big operations pushing small ones out of business. I don't know about other places, but here where I live there are a lot of cattle kept on places that are 50 acres or less, and hayfields may not be half that big. I don't see how having cattle on places like that would ever be feasible for big operations.

That is the saving grace of cattle production. If there is one.

 

[Brute 23]

If you get in to cattle for a tax write off you are an idiot. To get an ag exemption or maintain your property... ok... but not to write off their expenses.

People just like having cows and ag exemptions are probably the top 2 from talking to people.

 

[Caustic Burno]

If you get in to cattle for a tax write off you are an idiot. To get an ag exemption or maintain your property... ok... but not to write off their expenses.

People just like having cows and ag exemptions are probably the top 2 from talking to people.

Got that right like buying the 60K tractor to save a couple thousand on your taxes.
Great deal if you need a tractor otherwise it's cheaper to pay the taxes.

 

[Caustic Burno]

This is from TAMU 2015 workshop. Lot of what they predicted came true not everything. They got pretty darn close on what the bottom dollar would be.
Some things are still in motion.
I plan on contacting Dr Banta and see if he will put on another workshop.

Today's workshop

Was largely on retaining and buying replacements. Average cost to raise a heifer was 1900 the most to pay for a replacement was 2400 with the five year forecast. Forecast was the market steady this year then declining till 2021.

www.cattletoday.com

 

[Buck Randall]

Nothing inconsistent at all in what @Caustic Burno said. Over 90% of the nation's cattle is produced by people with 50 cows or less, and most of them have 30 cows are less. Most of these are owned by people who have businesses and in need of tax shelters. Fuel, feed, fertilizer costs, ever increasing property taxes and the ever-increasing price to buy or lease pasture and hay fields, are going to put them out of business. Large corporations need these shelters too, and have bought out row crop and cattle operations over the years. They can reduce input costs simply because of the buying power. It is the same economic scenario as with small independent grocery stores and mom-pop hardware and building supply stores inability to compete with the huge chains.

I think you've got your numbers mixed up. 90% of the nations cow/calf operations are less than 100 head, but they only have 44% of the cattle.

If you're talking about cattle feeding operations, the numbers are even more skewed toward the big guys.

USDA ERS - Sector at a Glance

With its abundant grasslands and large grain supply, the United States has developed a beef industry that is largely separate from its dairy sector. The United States has the largest fed-cattle industry in the world, and is the world's largest producer of beef, primarily high-quality, grain-fed...

www.ers.usda.gov

 

[Stocker Steve]

If you are in the drought area it most likely doesn't make sense to feed them. But for those outside those areas it makes prefect sense. In 2013, '14. and '15 I made good money raising bred heifers. To really cash in you need enough to fill a pot load so they can be shipped the drought areas after the drought breaks. And those years I couldn't pencil my broken mouth cow deal.

Bred BM cows were too high priced to make money calving them out and then sending them to kill?
Could you have resold them for a profit as pairs?

 

[Dave]

Bred BM cows were too high priced to make money calving them out and then sending them to kill?
Could you have resold them for a profit as pairs?

They were just too high for me. I guess you could have figured a way to make them work. I just wasn't that brave. Besides those years the bred heifer deal wasn't nearly the gamble.

 

[Warren Allison]

No inconsistency at all the small producers drove the economy. The majority are aging out, this is not difficult to understand.
Just a few years ago my community supported three tractor dealerships only one is left. The other two didn't shutdown after years from too much business.

Same in my town. The JD dealership now has mostly the yellow construction equipment, and side by sides. The New Holland dealership has mostly small tractors, small equipment and landscaping equipment.

 

[Otha]

Same in my town. The JD dealership now has mostly the yellow construction equipment, and side by sides. The New Holland dealership has mostly small tractors, small equipment and landscaping equipment.

Seems like the dealers around here that are still open have switched to the side by side's and under 75 hp tractors to stay in business. It amazes me how many of these new land owners by a little tractor. I'd be surprised if they get 50 hours per year on most of them.

 

[DCA farm]

where are you?

Merryville Louisiana

 

[tex452]

Some people just love to doom and gloom. Some people don't know what they think they do.

I don't agree with this totally because some do, but a lot of people are looking ahead including myself.
Nobody likes what's happening but it is what it is.
For now I'm lucky and able to pick up some nice cheap cows, a lot are bred, we are planning on wintering these cows and selling them next spring with a nice profit.
What if it doesn't rain next spring?
I'm not a gambler or a drinker but this is rolling the dice.
I might look back and say I should have sold my hay.
Who knows?