Beef Supply and Demand Estimates

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Jan 31, 2004
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Beef Supply and Demand Estimates – Lower Production Offset by Lower Exports & Consumption

Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 are raised slightly from last month. The increase reflects higher pork output as production forecasts for other meats are unchanged. The June 25 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers remain cautious in their expansion plans. However, expectations of continued favorable returns and moderating feed prices result in higher pork production forecasts for late 2004 and 2005. Forecasts for 2004 beef and poultry production are adjusted slightly to reflect the pace of slaughter in the second quarter.

Demand strength continues to support livestock and poultry markets and forecast prices are raised from last month. The forecast Choice steer price for 2004 is raised to $85 to $87 per cwt and the average hog price is raised to $48 to $49 per cwt. Forecast broiler and turkey prices for 2004 are also increased. For 2005, broiler prices are raised in expectation that production increases will remain moderate despite favorable returns.

NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada in 2003, forecasts for 2004 and 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes.