NiceFarmer31
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How many badgers are infected, will enough badgers be culled and is it all worth it? Here is a guide to the recent badger cull
Most badgers aren't infected, is that correct?
The largest study of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in badgers was the randomised badger culling trial, RBCT, which reported in 2007. Nearly 8,900 badgers were culled across large (100 km sq) areas where there was high risk of cattle TB. Their carcasses were subjected to detailed examination and testing, although the standard postmortems missed half of the infections compared with extended postmortems. Overall, 16.6% of the badgers culled between 1998 and 2005 were found to be positive, based on the standard postmortem, indicating that about 33% were actually infected. But this percentage varied geographically and by year in the trial.
Do cattle really catch TB from badgers?
Most badgers are not infected, but those that are can transmit infection to cattle. Using a mathematical model and data from the start of the trial, I estimated that confirmed cattle TB rates would be halved if there were no transmission from badgers (meaning neither direct badger-to-cattle transmission nor onward cattle-to-cattle transmission of those primary infections). But this estimate is quite uncertain. Even without using the model, it is clear that in an 18-month period after widespread culling stopped in the trial, cattle TB in the culling area was reduced by roughly half. This estimate was more precise, being almost certainly between 38% and 66%. Thus, it is very likely that at least 38% of the confirmed cattle TB in trial areas stemmed from badger-to-cattle transmission, with half being the best estimate.
- See more at: http://gardenreboot.blogspot.com/2013/10/badgers-responsible-for-half-of.html