JMJ Farms
Well-known member
Nothing takes the place of good decision making. But on any successful venture, there is a little luck involved! But you can do a lot to "create" your luck.
A tough story and a sign of things to come
- Thread starter mncowboy
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Nesikep
Well-known member
It depends on what you're trying to do with your cowherd.. If you're looking to make genetic progress, then selling out goes against that.
I wouldn't say these people *deserved* this.. but it was to be *expected*.. Yes, they had some serious accidents and problems that really didn't help, and I'm sorry that it happened to them.
But prices aren't THAT low.. they weren't in it for as many "ups and downs" as they'd like to proclaim.. I think if anyone knows what recent bad prices are, Aaron and Bez have been through some of the worst of it.. In about 2005 here I got $.80/lb for nice 5wt heifers, steers were $.85-90... they're still double that here at least, so while I'm certainly not going to make the money I did last year ($3.75/lb for a 385 lb dink or $1440), things could still get a whole lot worse.
My view of it is 'steady as she goes'.. Keep the cows you can have, save the money you can, keep a tight grip on the expenses, take the good deals while they're available.. Buying and selling with the market is just another way to chase a fad. I was lucky I sold my calves and cull cows at the perfect time last year.. it was dumb luck.. Lost my shirt on a couple calves I kept over though because they were really young
I wouldn't say these people *deserved* this.. but it was to be *expected*.. Yes, they had some serious accidents and problems that really didn't help, and I'm sorry that it happened to them.
But prices aren't THAT low.. they weren't in it for as many "ups and downs" as they'd like to proclaim.. I think if anyone knows what recent bad prices are, Aaron and Bez have been through some of the worst of it.. In about 2005 here I got $.80/lb for nice 5wt heifers, steers were $.85-90... they're still double that here at least, so while I'm certainly not going to make the money I did last year ($3.75/lb for a 385 lb dink or $1440), things could still get a whole lot worse.
My view of it is 'steady as she goes'.. Keep the cows you can have, save the money you can, keep a tight grip on the expenses, take the good deals while they're available.. Buying and selling with the market is just another way to chase a fad. I was lucky I sold my calves and cull cows at the perfect time last year.. it was dumb luck.. Lost my shirt on a couple calves I kept over though because they were really young
Bigfoot":64y56jl3 said:
You did the right thing. Jumping in and out is simply flipping cattle not building for the future.
True Grit Farms
Well-known member
I was with ya, but I couldnt justify selling out my cow herd. It took too long to build.[/quote]
You did the right thing. Jumping in and out is simply flipping cattle not building for the future.[/quote]
Y'all must have alot better stock than I have. Or you don't go to many registered sales. I sold some old good looking broken mouth cows that came off ryegrass, for what I can buy good registered 6-7 year old AI bred cows for now. We're going into registered cattle more and more, and the next couple of years is going to be a buyers market. It's better to be lucky than good.
You did the right thing. Jumping in and out is simply flipping cattle not building for the future.[/quote]
Y'all must have alot better stock than I have. Or you don't go to many registered sales. I sold some old good looking broken mouth cows that came off ryegrass, for what I can buy good registered 6-7 year old AI bred cows for now. We're going into registered cattle more and more, and the next couple of years is going to be a buyers market. It's better to be lucky than good.
I'd have to get my big chief notebook out and a calculator to prove my point, but I don't think it would have paid me to sell my herd.......wait, and then buy back in. I believe I'd have lost enough revenue on a missing calf crop to eat the profit. Especially if I had missed the last year of the glut. My cows ain't special, or super cows by any stretch of the imagination, but I don't know where I'd go buy a set of commercial cows like I have. Based on age especially. 85-90% of mine, still have their best years ahead of them.
I have been reading through this thread and decided to throw my :2cents: into the conversation. First of all I feel bad for the folks that had to sell out. No matter what the reasons I hate to see when someones dream comes crashing down on them. I will confess I didn't study the article just grazed through it a bit, but one of the things I picked up is that they started there own feed lot. The past two years when the calf prices went through the roof the feeders took a huge hit. Timing in business is everything and having those kind of prices during a period when your in start up mode of a feedlot would be difficult for someone with years of experience much less someone just getting started. With beef cattle you have cow/calf operators, stockers, backgrounders and feeders. When the price of the calves and stockers got so high there was no way the feeders could make a profit they were going in the hole pretty fast. The prices had to come back down. But folks when I hear comments like" if these prices stay like this ". Really? I hope to heck they do because they are still better than they were for a good number of years.
I had a conversation today with a good friend, we bounce management ideas off one another all the time. He called and said I need your opinion. He had sent 5 steer calves to the local sale barn, he said they were nice calves but nothing super special just nice average weight 505lbs he got 1.36 a pound for the calves, and said he was a bit disappointed with the price he received. My answer to him was what did you get for the same quality steer back 4 years ago? He said well I got 85-95 cent a pound. Humm 1.36 doesn't sound as bad when you put it like that. The drought out west drove the cattle inventory down to the lowest it has been in years it was a perfect storm for high prices, but we all knew or if you studied what was going on you knew what was going to happen. Prices would have to come down to a point where a balance of all the different sections of the industry could still make a profit. I think we are getting close to that balance and I for one will be thankful if we can maintain these prices of 136-156 for steer calves. It won't give me the surplus to upgrade equipment and renovate pastures like we were able to do in 2014 and 2015 but thank the good Lord we used the surplus wisely and got some things done while the prices were high. The current prices sure aren't so bad that you can't make a profit you just won't have the margins that you were able to achieve in 2014 - 2015.
gizmom
I had a conversation today with a good friend, we bounce management ideas off one another all the time. He called and said I need your opinion. He had sent 5 steer calves to the local sale barn, he said they were nice calves but nothing super special just nice average weight 505lbs he got 1.36 a pound for the calves, and said he was a bit disappointed with the price he received. My answer to him was what did you get for the same quality steer back 4 years ago? He said well I got 85-95 cent a pound. Humm 1.36 doesn't sound as bad when you put it like that. The drought out west drove the cattle inventory down to the lowest it has been in years it was a perfect storm for high prices, but we all knew or if you studied what was going on you knew what was going to happen. Prices would have to come down to a point where a balance of all the different sections of the industry could still make a profit. I think we are getting close to that balance and I for one will be thankful if we can maintain these prices of 136-156 for steer calves. It won't give me the surplus to upgrade equipment and renovate pastures like we were able to do in 2014 and 2015 but thank the good Lord we used the surplus wisely and got some things done while the prices were high. The current prices sure aren't so bad that you can't make a profit you just won't have the margins that you were able to achieve in 2014 - 2015.
gizmom
At the very top of the market, a group of large purebred guys and investor types flew my dad and few others, some of whom are good sized operators who some on here know or have heard of, to a meeting wanting them to put up a bunch of money and take equity stakes in a 50,000 head feedlot they wanted to build in Northern Nebraska along with making inventory guarantees.Cross-7":204u4ky0 said:
I was not at the 2 day presentation but my dad tells me these banker and purebred types were dumbfounded when he and his fellow "ignorant ranchers" passed to a man. Their logic was; "Hey, you guys run lots of yearlings and feed lots of cattle or own feed yards already, why wouldn't you want to put up money and commit inventory to us, we will use the latest ideas and innovations and do it even better than these yards that have been staying in business for decades doing the same boring stuff".
Funny thing about real life, at the top of the market, profit is not near as bulletproof as many think and when things get tough, there is waaaaay more opportunity than many of the chicken littles who love to pronounce the cattle business dead can comprehend.
In my little story, I'm not sure who did or didn't have earrings.
Bigfoot":tjui8j5g said:
When Mr. Goodyear sold 1,000 old Brangus and Braford cows for $3,000/each that really got my attention. Then the Grezaffi's sold 500 head of teenage cows for $3,000 each on cattlerange. We sold all of our old cows for an unbelievable price. Smith Brahman sold their herd, too.Now people are buying back in and getting better genetics than what they had previously.
Selling your herd doesn't mean selling your genetics these days. Genex is a short 30 minute drive.
Like JS1234 said, there are a lot of opportunities if you aren't swimming upstream.
The row crop guys are the ones who should be sweating. China announced it is moving millions out of government subsidized manufacturing into agriculture. They have made enormous investments to grow their own crops in Africa, too.
Caustic Burno
Well-known member
True Grit Farms":2phejfw1 said:
You did the right thing. Jumping in and out is simply flipping cattle not building for the future.[/quote]
Y'all must have alot better stock than I have. Or you don't go to many registered sales. I sold some old good looking broken mouth cows that came off ryegrass, for what I can buy good registered 6-7 year old AI bred cows for now. We're going into registered cattle more and more, and the next couple of years is going to be a buyers market. It's better to be lucky than good.[/quote]
Lot of people have made money flipping cattle for years.
Bunch on here that buy SS heavies do it every year.
There is always a better cow to be had
A cow is nothing but cost and liability until sold.
All no matter paper or not have an appointment with the hamburger grinder.
TexasBred
Well-known member
Nesi those extremely high prices spoiled a lot of people and now that things are coming back to more normal levels they feel like the world has gone to he// in handbasket. Anybody that bought in thinking those high prices were going to become the norm was a bit stupid.Nesikep":ios31ik5 said:
TexasBred
Well-known member
When they start paying your way to look at their plan better always run like he// the other direction.js1234":2b31k3jy said:
mncowboy
Well-known member
JWBrahman":2962rpwy said:
Couldn't agree more, and as for selling the cows every time they're high, I'd have to throw 8k away every year just to hold onto the rented pasture. That doesn't pencil very well either. You cant just tell the land owner your going to take a year or two off and think that he or she is going to hold it for you. They'll be guys 3-4 deep waiting to snatch it up behind you, meanwhile your equipment whether it be a truck and trailer or a barn/tractor ect sits idle. That doesn't make much.
