3070; 8020; 4011

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alexfarms":1dw79h0j said:
Even if there is some other explanation, the ratios should show up on the performance pedigree or in some way be traceable to a commercial cow id. If any cow has epd's in the AHA data base, then she ought to have some history to back up those epds and it should be available to the authorized users who pay for that info within the system.

Your right, I won't argue with that at all. The more I get into epds, the more questions I have about them and their usefullness, especially when you look at how little information is actually collected on some lines of cattle.

Brian
 
I'm having a problem with the idea that Herefords use data from commercial cows to produce their EPDs. I didn't find anything about that on the web, but did find this little tidbit:

Interpretive Summary: Influential breeders sometimes express the opinion that 'EPDs are not accurate enough for us to use as a selection tool.' Even more often someone will ask, 'Does a milk EPD really predict differences in milk production'? Or, 'Will the calves of a low birth weight EPD bull really have light birth weights'. Data were generated for this research by progeny testing 26 Hereford bulls mated to crossbred commercial cows, and by weigh-suckle-weigh measurement of milk production by Hereford cows. EPDs were from this American Hereford Association National Cattle Evaluation. A close relationship exists between differences in EPD and differences in actual performance. To the extent that breeders wish to select replacements based on performance criteria, they are encouraged to use EPDs for this purpose.

http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/public ... 115=153725

If someone has a Hereford link that shows they use data from commercial cows to calculate EPD data, would you please post a link? Thanks.....
 
The bull I mentioned did go to the Amana colonies for that natural sire test on the Amana colonies commercial herd and I believe he was in the first year of that test. So, a portion of the data may have come from that test, but not all of it. The 11 ulrasound results came in when there were just the 2 available for view on the performance pedigree and the other nine probably came from calves out of commercial cows in the owners herd. I know when the Amana colonies test was announced, the story was the calves would be fed out and carcass data would be available but I don't know that they said they would be developing epds from those calves out of commercial cows. I think there would be some problems with using that data from the Amana test. It was a natural sire service test where a group of bulls was turned out with a large group of females. And the bulls were of different ages. I have done some multiple sire breeding pastures and have found the older larger bulls have an advantage to the extent that they sire most of the calves. I watched the bulls a bit when a cow was in heat and the boss bulls would knock the other bulls off when he mounted. I don't think you would get a random sample of matings for each bull with natural service. Wouldn't the smaller or younger, less dominant bulls be more likely to breed the females that were more difficult for the larger bulls to breed? Wouldn't the larger or older bulls have more trouble servicing small cows or heifers? Someone mentioned that the bulls epds have settled to the average of his parents. I know his sire dropped about half of what he dropped. So it appears to me all three of them may have moved down proportionally, although I don't remember what his dams epds were previously. This would indicate to me that alot of weight has been placed on calves out of commercial cows that are unidentifiable within the genetic analysis.
 
I know that there has a least been discussion about using data from commercial cows, and plans to incorporate it at some point. I don't know if that point has been reached, but they have already had the forms for TPR breeders to use for their commercial herds, and were collecting the data for future evaluation. This was two to five years ago that I found this out, and I think at one point I may have had a copy of the form.
 
You are all into the conspiracy threroy to much 8) . I know for a fact that 3027 has more that 67 daughters. EPD's change as bulls get older and more accurate. I would rather have a bull drop ten pounds on his yw and have a high accuracy; than a old bull have a high yw and low accuracy. I know that not all daughter get put into the performace records. Dont know why. I have some daughters out of Holdens 5212 bull; they are eighteen months old, he has many daughters out of him also and none of them have shown up on his performace records. I have heard good stuff about 3027 from people using 3027. Thought that I might get some info off here to compared to the other bulls. Instead I got suspicion from people that dont seem to know anything about him. If anyone wants to know I am going to use 3027. His calves (I plan) will be bred to L1 Domino 02398 http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-b...5C5921212F2720&9=53535E&11=51505E&12=43425D58 . I believe this bull will help with size and his mother (speaking of daughters) has a 97 ration on 6 head for bw; 112 ration on five head for ww; and a 111 ration on 4 head for yw. I will use 703 http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-b...3=56&5=2B3C2B3C3A&6=5A5D5C2421252F262E&9=5050 as my clean up bull. 703 has avg. 75 lbs for bw on heifers and 80 lbs for bw on cows. Its his first calf crop so you wont find much on his daughters. Dont worry when the aliens leave we will all be okay 8)
 
TB-Herefords":168pcme3 said:
You are all into the conspiracy threroy to much 8) . I know for a fact that 3027 has more that 67 daughters. EPD's change as bulls get older and more accurate. I would rather have a bull drop ten pounds on his yw and have a high accuracy; than a old bull have a high yw and low accuracy. I know that not all daughter get put into the performace records. Dont know why. I have some daughters out of Holdens 5212 bull; they are eighteen months old, he has many daughters out of him also and none of them have shown up on his performace records. I have heard good stuff about 3027 from people using 3027. Thought that I might get some info off here to compared to the other bulls. Instead I got suspicion from people that dont seem to know anything about him. If anyone wants to know I am going to use 3027. His calves (I plan) will be bred to L1 Domino 02398 http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-b...5C5921212F2720&9=53535E&11=51505E&12=43425D58 . I believe this bull will help with size and his mother (speaking of daughters) has a 97 ration on 6 head for bw; 112 ration on five head for ww; and a 111 ration on 4 head for yw. I will use 703 http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-b...3=56&5=2B3C2B3C3A&6=5A5D5C2421252F262E&9=5050 as my clean up bull. 703 has avg. 75 lbs for bw on heifers and 80 lbs for bw on cows. Its his first calf crop so you wont find much on his daughters. Dont worry when the aliens leave we will all be okay 8)

Theory? The THEORY is in those unproven EPDs that you (and far too many others) seem to put a lot of stock in!

Suspicion? I'd say that a bull whose daughters' initial production are weaning at a ratio significantly sub-average (96.5 avg WWR) is WORTHY of some suspicion. As I stated before, if I didn't see an improvement in that number, I certainly wouldn't use the 3027 bull at all- IF I was planning on retaining his daughters in my herd. That wonderful milk EPD of +27 doesn't mean diddly when you consider that it started out IN THEORY at +34. If his daughters continue producing at their current pace , the 3027 bull is destined to end up with a milk EPD that's significantly below breed average. Yes, I DO tend to place a higher value on the FACTS, those subaverage production numbers of his daughters, than the THEORY, those unproven EPDs.

So let's talk some FACTS about 5212. He's a 2005 model bull. That means he wouldn't have had daughters born before 2007 - AND they wouldn't be calving for the first time until this year. I believe that'd make it impossible for his daughters to have ANY production numbers at this point.

Perhaps, instead of a conspiracy theory, the REAL problem lies in your inability to understand what the numbers are in a performance pedigree, where they are derived, and how eventually they'll turn those theoretical EPDs into something a person might be able to trust.

George
 
So in Two years 3027 has had 67 daughters in production. 03 modle w/ 05 calves, clavin in 07 and 08. Is that right. I know there below average but have you seen the cows 3027 is bred to. He has been used to improve the bw and carcass of a lot of cattle.
 
TB-Herefords":1gjm1xfu said:
So in Two years 3027 has had 67 daughters in production. 03 modle w/ 05 calves, clavin in 07 and 08. Is that right. I know there below average but have you seen the cows 3027 is bred to. He has been used to improve the bw and carcass of a lot of cattle.

The performance pedigree information is updated regularly, where EPDs are updated twice a year. The most current information on 3027 is 67 daughters in production with 38 calves reported with a WWR of 98.3. Although that is some improvement over the initial numbers in this thread, it's still well below average and the number of calves is now getting up to a point where I believe there will be little deviaton. One of the additional concerns I have is that these are mostly first calf heifers that get a percentage "markup" to their calves' weaning weight, so the actual difference in the raw weaning weight is actually greater than the ratio.

I just get a little aggravated when someone asks for input, likes to promote EPD numbers when they are favorable to them, but then they want to IGNOR or EXCUSE perfomance numbers when they don't align with what they WANT to believe. Then on top of that, when presented with contrary information, try to denigrate the bearers as "conspiracy theorists'. If you ask for input here, you better be prepared for both the good and bad. I guess someone could start a thread with "favorable input only wanted". With this bunch, I doubt it'd work!

3027 is one heck-of-a-good LOOKING bull and he probably has a number of good qualities. Just looking at his pictures, he's the kind I wouldn't mind using - IF I wasn't PRIMARILY interested in building a good maternal cowherd. I was just trying to provide a note of caution to those who might be tempted to use him without looking at ALL the facts. It's still a little early to be certain but the milking ability of his daughters SHOULD be a concern and I would urge anyone to hold off of using him until more information comes in - unless milking ability is something that they aren't concerned with. And, truthfully, i haven't seen that many Hereford herds where THAT wouldn't be a concern.

George
 
George, I have no dog in this fight, but I have seen when a high milk EBV bull was used alot in corrective type of matings on cows who's maternal qualities was suspect to say the least. The result is a dramatic drop in the bull's milk figures (that corrected itself over time), but the fact remains that in the short term using a bull primarily in a corrective manner can play a big role in the initial fluctuations of his breeding values.

If you ever tried to really add milk to your herd you'll understand what an uphill battle that can be unless you really go and use extremes.
 
By the way, 3027 isn't alone.

Here are a couple of bulls that I've used AI where I have similar initial concerns regarding their daughters' production ability:

BR DM Channing ET
103 daughters in production, 68 calves reported, 97.7 WWR

BR Moler ET
85 daughters in production, 22 calves reported, 98.8 WWR

Also, the initial performance numbers of the first calves from last year's Denver Champion, H Easy Deal 609ET, sure slow my enthusiasm for using him:

13 calves reported so far avg WWR: 93.9%

It's still early, I know.

George
 
KNERSIE":1woh0w6r said:
George, I have no dog in this fight, but I have seen when a high milk EBV bull was used alot in corrective type of matings on cows who's maternal qualities was suspect to say the least. The result is a dramatic drop in the bull's milk figures (that corrected itself over time), but the fact remains that in the short term using a bull primarily in a corrective manner can play a big role in the initial fluctuations of his breeding values.

If you ever tried to really add milk to your herd you'll understand what an uphill battle that can be unless you really go and use extremes.

To determine that is the case with 3027 would require research, which I would judiciously do before using him at this point. To me, the simpler thing would be to just use another, more proven bull this year, then look at the data again next year to see if there has been any changes.

George
 
Herefordsire dont be so vain. I was speaking of those who see EPD's change and say breeders must be fudgin data. But if you feel better thinkin I was talkin of you thats okay. I would be interested to see what 8020's EPD's were as a two year old or even a five year old; and how they have changed. Do you think he started of with a couple hundered head of daughters. I don't know just woundering. If you sit back on proven genetics you might miss out on some of the soon to be proven genetics. Although 8020 is very proven how often do you hear of his offspring being sale toppers. It's all a gamble. You can sit back and bet on last years triple crown winner or you can bet on the horse thats won all year. Have you seen some of the cows that 3027 has been bred to. Most not to impressive. Not to say that 8020 was bred to the best cows either.

Anyway thanks for the conversation. :wave:
 
TB-Herefords":16p0guph said:
Herefordsire dont be so vain. I was speaking of those who see EPD's change and say breeders must be fudgin data. But if you feel better thinkin I was talkin of you thats okay. I would be interested to see what 8020's EPD's were as a two year old or even a five year old; and how they have changed. Do you think he started of with a couple hundered head of daughters. I don't know just woundering. If you sit back on proven genetics you might miss out on some of the soon to be proven genetics. Although 8020 is very proven how often do you hear of his offspring being sale toppers. It's all a gamble. You can sit back and bet on last years triple crown winner or you can bet on the horse thats won all year. Have you seen some of the cows that 3027 has been bred to. Most not to impressive. Not to say that 8020 was bred to the best cows either.

Anyway thanks for the conversation. :wave:

Pardon? In this thread I thought I was asking a legitmate question of someone who at least had an inkling of whom they were talking to and what they were talking about! I OBVIOUSLY was totally wrong on both counts! MY bad! Blather on!

George
 
TB-Herefords":3vheh49h said:
Herefordsire dont be so vain. I was speaking of those who see EPD's change and say breeders must be fudgin data. But if you feel better thinkin I was talkin of you thats okay. I would be interested to see what 8020's EPD's were as a two year old or even a five year old; and how they have changed. Do you think he started of with a couple hundered head of daughters. I don't know just woundering. If you sit back on proven genetics you might miss out on some of the soon to be proven genetics. Although 8020 is very proven how often do you hear of his offspring being sale toppers. It's all a gamble. You can sit back and bet on last years triple crown winner or you can bet on the horse thats won all year. Have you seen some of the cows that 3027 has been bred to. Most not to impressive. Not to say that 8020 was bred to the best cows either.

Anyway thanks for the conversation. :wave:

In fact, most 8020 daughters are at or near the top when anyone actually turns loose of them. It hasn't been but a year or three ago that one of his daughters was a foundation female for the Hereford Youth program fundraiser at Denver if I remember correctly. I'm still seeing him frequently close up in the pedigrees of some of the marquee offerings.
 
Frankie":z0z5si1h said:
If someone has a Hereford link that shows they use data from commercial cows to calculate EPD data, would you please post a link? Thanks.....

They are not yet, but they are working on it.
From the AHA website.

"Alternate Breed Inventory

The AHA is now offering an alternate breed inventory program to help start collecting cross-bred data as well as information on recipient dams so that it might be possible to utilize the information of crossbred and ET calves in future genetic analyses.

To sign up, click here, and follow directions above the form.

The goals of this program are as follows:

A. Allow for AHA to record and document information on recipient dams to allow ET calves to possibly be used in future genetic analyses (age and breed makeup of recip).

B. Allow for AHA to record information on crossbred calves with some portion of known Hereford genetics so that the performance data from these animals might be used in future genetic analyses. Possible schemes might be for progeny testing young sires, aiding commercial cattlemen by bench marking performance on their commercial cow herd, utilization of alternate breed sires on Hereford Heifers and preserving their production history.

C. Collect several years worth of these types of data and then analyze this information to see what the impact might be to the North American Hereford Cattle Evaluation of EPDs.

General Rules:

1. Purebred Herefords recorded in the AHA registry system should be maintained on your current Whole Herd TPR inventory. A Purebred Hereford female may be moved to the alternate breed inventory, however, if you should wish to move her back to the Whole Herd TPR inventory at a later date, the $30 reactivation fee will apply, similar to if you had disposed of her making her inactive and removing her from the TPR inventory.

2. Inventory fees for this system will be the same as what we are currently using for Whole Herd TPR fees.

3. This inventory system is completely voluntary and to get started a breeder has to express interest in having the forms sent to them. Once they start participation, inventory forms for the year and season will be sent out along with the purebred inventory forms. The breeder should return them with the purebred inventory forms for all enrolled females.

4. There will be a bull and female inventory similar to the Whole Herd TPR system.

5. Breeders can use the current Calf Recording/Birth Worksheet Information forms (FORM 1) to record calves out of animals on the alternate breed inventory.

6. Calves recorded to a parent from the alternate breed inventory, other than ET calves whose donor dam is purebred with known pedigree, are not allowed to be registered or have a registration certificate issued. Nor will any of their progeny be eligible to become registered Herefords.

7. Performance data of naturally bred and born calves will be ratiod based on contemporary groups formed by breed makeup of the calves. Performance data of ET calves will be ratiod based on contemporary groups formed by the genetic makeup of the recip dam for all traits except the ultrasound traits. Ultrasound trait data from ET calves will be ratiod based on contemporary groups formed by separating ET and naturally born purebred calves (e.g., ET calves ratiod against themselves and natural purebred calves ratiod against themselves).

8. At the moment, no data from parents on the alternate breed inventory nor their progeny will be extracted for the genetic analyses. One exception to this is the ultrasound data of purebred ET calves. Ultrasound trait data from ET calves will be grouped separately from non ET calves and have contemporary groups further formed using normal management code methods. The data will be extracted and utilized in future genetic analyses."
 
I sent an email to the AHA to try to get a clarification on this. I don't gamble, outside of farming and cattle raising, but if I did I would put it all on the bet that performance data from unregistered cows has been used in the 514's epd genetic analysis. I will post an answer from the AHA, if I get it.
 
alexfarms":1q8oiec2 said:
I sent an email to the AHA to try to get a clarification on this. I don't gamble, outside of farming and cattle raising, but if I did I would put it all on the bet that performance data from unregistered cows has been used in the 514's epd genetic analysis. I will post an answer from the AHA, if I get it.

Well, I hope you have better luck than I do dealing with them.
 

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