2019-2020 Hay Pricing ?

[Stocker Steve]

Hay prices here have been trending up here since last summer. Folks expect hay prices to drop (a little) this year. Talking heads are projecting an average reduction of $10/ton for hay. That is still too high for my budget. What adjustments are you making to prepare for overwintering during 2019-2020?

 

[Lucky_P]

Cutting numbers by 40-50% - if we don't get out altogether.
Did not re-breed any Fall calvers to keep... low-end of the Fall-calving group has been with the bull since 1 Nov and will be sold as soon as we wean calves. Top end Fall calvers will be rolling to Spring-calving herd.
Low end and OLD Spring-calvers will be sold this fall.

 

[Aaron]

Can't see prices dropping. Herds keep getting bigger and newly cleared fields are going into crop, not forage. Oldtimers still holding on and unless you see a big exodus of them in the next two years, with buyers keeping those fields in forage, I can't see much changing. Problem is most of the buyers want to put those old fields into crop, so it will only make things worse. Neighbor nearby doesn't want to hassle with working up, fertilizing, cover crop/seeding down old fields, so he is slowly renting out 20 acres here and there to crop guys for 3 years to work ground up proper for eventually seeding down ask to grass. But the 3 years in between can narrow the excess hay supply for sure.

 

[Stocker Steve]

There always seems to be an excess of folks who will lose money for the purpose of driving a shiny JD. Go figure. I need to buy a better no till planter or go crop cold turkey. Hummm.

Meanwhile back at the ranch - - I back calculated a stocking rate to project a small hay surplus. Could cut as much as a third of the cow herd. Cull'in down is hard to do. Thinking about a red cow dispersal, or writing a country song. ;-)

 

[TexasBred]

There always seems to be an excess of folks who will lose money for the purpose of driving a shiny JD. Go figure. I need to buy a better no till planter or go crop cold turkey. Hummm.

Meanwhile back at the ranch - - I back calculated a stocking rate to project a small hay surplus. Could cut as much as a third of the cow herd. Cull'in down is hard to do. Thinking about a red cow dispersal, or writing a country song. ;-)

Steve I have an old can of JD Green paint I can send you. NO idea where it came from because I've never owned one. :lol2:

 

[ddd75]

i should have 2 months hay leftover this year. going to fertilize the same amount.

 

[Ebenezer]

There always seems to be an excess of folks who will lose money for the purpose of driving a shiny JD. Go figure. I need to buy a better no till planter or go crop cold turkey. Hummm.

Meanwhile back at the ranch - - I back calculated a stocking rate to project a small hay surplus. Could cut as much as a third of the cow herd. Cull'in down is hard to do. Thinking about a red cow dispersal, or writing a country song. ;-)

Sold some cows, Sold my Deere, Now my future ain't real clear
I'm drillin' seeds and don't want no mo' hay
And hopin' tomorrow my bills go away

I want to farm back in the black
I don't want no extra hay to stack
Let cows graze and get big and fat
I can get along with that.

 

[talltimber]

:clap: There you go, SS

 

[Stocker Steve]

Mighty fine. Maybe we should start performing some country rap on the CMAs.

 

[Banjo]

What about making silage? don't know how much tonnage you can get from corn silage but I'm sure its quite a bit. Got a buddy of mine buying silage and feeding his cows, says its cheaper than hay which is getting high and hard to find.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Silage is often cheaper to obtain, but it takes more equipment and labor to feed it. Canadians seem to love grazing standing corn. I don't think they have to worry about acidosis or mud in the far north.

I graze pairs on a SS based cover crop mix on my bale grazed ground each fall. DM production is high, but honest grazing utilization is only 20 to 30%. So about half the benefit is a longer term soil thing.

 

[Bigfoot]

Cutting numbers by 40-50% - if we don't get out altogether.
Did not re-breed any Fall calvers to keep... low-end of the Fall-calving group has been with the bull since 1 Nov and will be sold as soon as we wean calves. Top end Fall calvers will be rolling to Spring-calving herd.
Low end and OLD Spring-calvers will be sold this fall.

Typed it 5 different times, and still sounds like a nosey question, but is this reduction due to hay scarcity? I ask because I'm fighting the same demon.

 

[bigbluegrass]

I am going to attempt to "kick the hay habit". I think it will take at least three years. Next year I hope I can graze stockpiled grass until January and cut my hay cost in half. The year after, hopefully I can make it until February. The third year I am hoping not to need hay. I plan to build a hay barn in the next three years to store what I hope is an emergency storage of hay for a drought year or when the grass doesn't stockpile so well.

I may need to cull some cows along the way.

 

[kenny thomas]

I am going to attempt to "kick the hay habit". I think it will take at least three years. Next year I hope I can graze stockpiled grass until January and cut my hay cost in half. The year after, hopefully I can make it until February. The third year I am hoping not to need hay. I plan to build a hay barn in the next three years to store what I hope is an emergency storage of hay for a drought year or when the grass doesn't stockpile so well.

I may need to cull some cows along the way.

Good to plan but also plan that it's really hard to get past 10 months. It can be done but in the plan figure for 2 months of hay available if needed.

 

[Fire Sweep Ranch]

We picked up another 40 acres, so I hope to be able to cut hay for myself (will hire someone). This last year about killed us paying too much for junk hay. If I hire someone to cut mine, it will be better hay. I hate selling the cows.... mine I all want!

 

[chevytaHOE5674]

Making hay is my primary business so I will have plenty for my own cattle. Custom baling rates won't change much from last year so those customers are safe. Not possible to go hay-less in this neck of the woods so my hay sales aren't in jeopardy anytime soon.

 

[Dave]

My crystal ball is broken. There are thousands on thousands of acres of irrigated ground in the PNW. A lot of it is in a potato, wheat, alfalfa rotation. So a lot of our hay availability depends on the price of other commodities. Also a lot of hay is exported. Availability depends some what on that market. A couple years ago there was a longshore mens stike at the ports. That halted the hay export. That year there was hay everywhere. I think that caused less hay to be planted the next year. This year hay is nearly sold out and price is high. So I predict more acres will be put into hay. How that will effect the market is anyone's guess.

 

[Banjo]

For those who live in the fescue belt.....Ky, Tn,Va.,N.C.Missouri and probably OH.and IN. and other states that grow fescue very well.....with just a little bit of planning.....you should be able to graze to at least Jan.1st.
The reason most people can't get that far is because even though they are in the 'fescue belt' they don't really have that much fescue. Fescue will die out if kept short...maybe not die out completely but can get pretty thin.
I know from experience. I have a 30 acre field at another place that i have been encouraging the crabgrass and letting the cows graze it short during the summer, subsequently the fescue in that field is thinning a lot...too much for very much winter grazing.
Ever since I started intensive grazing about 8 years ago, the shortest time i have ever been able to graze was Jan. 1. and usually up into Feb.
It can be done.

 

[kentuckyguy]

Banjo are you using the management intensive grazing methods?

I purchased the book but I'm only a couple chapters into it so far.

 

[kenny thomas]

For those who live in the fescue belt.....Ky, Tn,Va.,N.C.Missouri and probably OH.and IN. and other states that grow fescue very well.....with just a little bit of planning.....you should be able to graze to at least Jan.1st.
The reason most people can't get that far is because even though they are in the 'fescue belt' they don't really have that much fescue. Fescue will die out if kept short...maybe not die out completely but can get pretty thin.
I know from experience. I have a 30 acre field at another place that i have been encouraging the crabgrass and letting the cows graze it short during the summer, subsequently the fescue in that field is thinning a lot...too much for very much winter grazing.
Ever since I started intensive grazing about 8 years ago, the shortest time i have ever been able to graze was Jan. 1. and usually up into Feb.
It can be done.

Add to that soil testing and doing what it says.