Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

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Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:27 pm

A dispersal including a bunch of open F1 heifers is coming up here. I ran some simple numbers on buying them just over feeder price and taking them to calving. Did not look attractive to me w/o an increase in calf prices.
Called an order buyer and asked what he thought the young cows would bring. That calculation did not look attractive either. Asked how buyers could pay that and was told that there is a lot of surplus hay in the area.

I realize that one should not be buying cattle based on free feed or last years prices. Have you seen anyone that you think has with a grasp of 2018/2019 commodity beef prices?
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Aaron » Fri Mar 17, 2017 1:03 pm

I have been bitten by the bug as well. Bidding on open heifers at sale I got the bull from, never got any. Quit at $1125 US. Going to bid on some on offer at another sale on the 25th. I am sure I will have to pay at least $1200 US based on last year's prices. Hoping to get them closer to the $1050 US mark.
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:57 pm

I was second bidder on those wf heifers.
Harlan just projected 2017 fall feeder calf prices up $15 cwt., so perhaps I should have kept going.
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Aaron » Sun Mar 19, 2017 4:53 am

Stocker Steve wrote:I was second bidder on those wf heifers.
Harlan just projected 2017 fall feeder calf prices up $15 cwt., so perhaps I should have kept going.


What about fall yearling price?
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:22 am

Neb. 6 wt. steer projected at U$S 1.51 at turnout and 1.26 as an 8 wt. at late summer. So U$S .50 VOG. Corn is too cheap...

The $1 MN heifers look better. :cowboy:
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:16 pm

I realize the future fat prices are a fiction based on fast money and computerized trading. But, then what do you work from as a commodity producer? Bud said the only real price in the entire mess is todays' cash kill price. Good to know, but I need a little longer term plan unless I become a sell/buy cattle jockey.
I think commodity producers can learn a lot from the organic guys. They think about systems. They have a crop rotation based on soil fertility and weed management. They don't jump in and out of markets. They don't buy a lot of inputs.
I think this distills down to having a low input "forage chain" and then reevaluating when to sell cattle at several points each year. I have a yard full of heifers right now. Some will be sold soon to desperate grass grazers, most have a date with Genex. :cboy: I have considering doubling down but I think it is still too early in the cattle price cycle.
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby dieselbeef » Tue Mar 21, 2017 6:18 am

lowest price to buy is typically summertime...get on cattle fax and see historic timing and a lot of the trends for buy sell timing
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sooner or later im gonna be all beefmasters...probly be later

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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Aaron » Sat Mar 25, 2017 11:36 pm

Well I was pretty close on my figure. Bought 11 heifers for $1205 US average. 8 are 1/4 Fullblood Simm 3/4 Herf and the other 3 are purebred Herf.
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:40 am

Aaron wrote:Well I was pretty close on my figure. Bought 11 heifers for $1205 US average. 8 are 1/4 Fullblood Simm 3/4 Herf and the other 3 are purebred Herf.


Where from?
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Aaron » Sun Mar 26, 2017 8:13 am

Stocker Steve wrote:
Aaron wrote:Well I was pretty close on my figure. Bought 11 heifers for $1205 US average. 8 are 1/4 Fullblood Simm 3/4 Herf and the other 3 are purebred Herf.


Where from?


Pretty close to where I bought the bull. Moose Jaw, SK. Bought a yearling bull from same guy 3 years ago and everybody just loves the females he throws. http://www.tripleaherefords.ca - have a lot of confidence in his program. Been 35 years since we've had much Simmi blood around here in the commercial herd, so it will be a nice change.
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Sun Mar 26, 2017 9:43 am

Really nice looking cattle. Glad they got the color right too. Lots of simi cross bull sold locally, they are almost all black.

My quarter blood simis usually have a lot of hair and are wide, but don't have the muscled up hind quarters that high percentage simis do. Steer weaning wts. are up about 65# from what I used to run - - BA bulls over older cows.
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Aaron » Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:11 am

Hoping to push the steer weights at 5 months closer to 600 lb mark on those Simmie girls.
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby boondocks » Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:19 pm

Aaron wrote:Well I was pretty close on my figure. Bought 11 heifers for $1205 US average. 8 are 1/4 Fullblood Simm 3/4 Herf and the other 3 are purebred Herf.


Newbie question. When you're buying open heifers like that, what's the average age? I assume somewhere between 12-16 months or so, or am I way off?

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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby Aaron » Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:36 pm

boondocks wrote:
Aaron wrote:Well I was pretty close on my figure. Bought 11 heifers for $1205 US average. 8 are 1/4 Fullblood Simm 3/4 Herf and the other 3 are purebred Herf.


Newbie question. When you're buying open heifers like that, what's the average age? I assume somewhere between 12-16 months or so, or am I way off?


These are 12-13 months which is a common age to market commercial heifers. 4 of the crossbreds averaged 908 lbs. and the remaining 6 averaged 760 lbs. A lot of purebred heifers are marketed as weaned calves.
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Re: Dispersal Figur'in & Beef Price Forecasting ?

Postby boondocks » Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:44 pm

Aaron wrote:
boondocks wrote:
Aaron wrote:Well I was pretty close on my figure. Bought 11 heifers for $1205 US average. 8 are 1/4 Fullblood Simm 3/4 Herf and the other 3 are purebred Herf.


Newbie question. When you're buying open heifers like that, what's the average age? I assume somewhere between 12-16 months or so, or am I way off?


These are 12-13 months which is a common age to market commercial heifers. 4 of the crossbreds averaged 908 lbs. and the remaining 6 averaged 760 lbs. A lot of purebred heifers are marketed as weaned calves.


Thanks Aaron, that's what I figured. I'm realizing there are regional differences in calling a given animal a weanling, yearling ("long" or "short"), or heifer. Will you wait a couple months to breed them?


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