The fall calf run?

[Alberta farmer]

In Alberta right now quite a few cows/calves are hitting the market. The buyers are splitting the calves off and the cows are going to slaughter. Calves 350 to 500 lb. are bringing right around $1/lb. ($.93 US), maybe a couple of cents more for really good calves. Get below 350 lb. and the price drops quite a bit.
I wonder what will happen when the big calf runs come in the fall? Every man and his dog up here is either getting out or drastically reducing their herds this year...there is little feed and it is very expensive. When it costs you more to feed the cow than she is worth it just doesn't work.
I suspect we will see steer calves under 80 cents($.75 US) and heifers under 70 cents($.65 US). Should be some great opportunities for the feedlots in the USA? Better get up here fast and get a great deal!

[dyates]

Shhhhhh. What'd we do to you? Now you want to run our prices down too?

[Alberta farmer]

Seriously, some of you guys in the border states should take a look. There are going to be some really good cow herd dispersals at firesale prices. Lots of young cows and bred heifers for peanuts...all age verified! Why buy someones cull bred heifers when you can buy someones quality replacements for about half the price?
The cattle industry in Alberta is going to shrink quite a bit this year. The Canadian Cattlemans Association is predicting the cow herd will shrink 30-40%. Remember this is after a big retraction last year so we are talking about some pretty good cattle.
R-Calf is about to have all their dreams come true within a year...no more Canadian cattle.

[Douglas]

How much of this is due to COOL Alberta?

[Alberta farmer]

Douglas: I don't think COOL is a real big problem. When it first came out it threw a wrench into the works but it seemed the cross border boys were getting it worked out pretty well.
The problem up here is a lack of feed for winter and poor pastures. We had a really bad drought in most of Alberta this year and the hay crop was extremely poor. There really is no other option to feeding anywhere from 150 to 200 days in most of Alberta as we get brutal winters up here with heavy snow and very cold temperatures. I think after about 8 years of very poor returns most guys in cow/calf have pretty well had a bellyful of the cattle business.
Also up here we lost one packer(Tyson) so now two are left(Cargill and XL) and they pretty well have a gentlemans agreement on how to devide up the cattle! Even with the reduction of one packer neither of these companies are killing up to capacity. With another big reduction in the cow herd it is probable that one packer will have to shut the doors, probably Cargill. All that will be left will be XL...a home grown packer who could teach the big boys a few tricks about being tough on farmers! In fact they make Cargill look like choir boys!
On top of all the economic factors the average age of cattle producers in Alberta is right around 60 years old and most were intending to leave the industry fairly soon anyway. There are very few young farmers who want to get into cow/calf....maybe that is a good thing....shows the young guys aren't as stupid as us old fools!
I think between Alberta and Saskatchewan the cowherd is about 70% of the national beef herd so a 40% reduction will put Canada in a position where they can't supply domestic need. This will be a long term deal as those older farmers who are liquidating will never be going back into cattle. I don't know what the solution will be to keep enough beef on the store shelves as the USA can hardly meet its own domestic market? I suspect the Canadian government will suddenly decide beef from Brazil really isn't all that bad!

[plumber_greg]

If they reduce the herd by that much, what happens to the hayground and pastures? Here it would be plowed up and farmed till it all washed away, but can they plant wheat or is there a gov. program like our CRP?

[Bez+]

If they reduce the herd by that much, what happens to the hayground and pastures? Here it would be plowed up and farmed till it all washed away, but can they plant wheat or is there a gov. program like our CRP?

CRP?

We could only wish!

Land will go to grain farmers

Bez+

[mnmtranching]

By the way the US does not come close to supplying its own domestic demand for beef.
We [the US] remains the worlds largest importer of beef.

[options]

By the way the US does not come close to supplying its own domestic demand for beef.
We [the US] remains the worlds largest importer of beef.

Only 950,000 head short seems somewhat close to supplying our own demand I would think.

[Bez+]

The US of A has always been a huge importer of beef.

There is a very obvious reason for this.

The US has always had - if not the lions share - then a large piece of the international export market.

That means to feed their own people the US has to import beef.

It is really quite simple. The US comes close to being able to use the entire beef "crop" domestically - however you used to send a great deal of it off shore - which is why there was such a cross border trade with Canada

Bez+

[SRBeef]

Seems to me that the US could easily supply all of our own beef. We export because our quality beef brings higher prices overseas and import because the imports cost less. We truck quality beef to the refrigerator ships at the coasts then truck back cheaper beef for the US consumer.

[Alberta farmer]

The USA does ship a lot of quality beef but also a lot of stuff Americans won't eat like hearts, kidneys, tripe etc.
As much as possible hayland/pasture will be ripped up and planted to grain/oilseeds etc. There seems to be a fairly robust hay market for the horse market. Generally the horse set don't get all bent out of shape over the cost of hay!
The fact is what is happening today in Alberta is happening in America too...just our drought is putting the final nail in the coffin for us? Whether in Canada or the USA the returns from cattle really don't justify the costs of raising them.
There will always be people willing to raise cattle. Tax write-offs, hobby, people who don't care if they make money but just want to play cowboy. I'm not saying any of that is bad...it just doesn't work for me personally.
I am not sure if grain production really makes a lot of sense anymore either. It seems to me the true cost of production leaves little actual profit for all the stress and labor involved. Agriculture seems to be such a low return enterprize. Just my opinion.

[mnmtranching]

By the way the US does not come close to supplying its own domestic demand for beef.
We [the US] remains the worlds largest importer of beef.

Only 950,000 head short seems somewhat close to supplying our own demand I would think.

The only countries we import by the head is Canada and Mexico. Australia the #1 supplier of imported beef to the US is all in boxes. [billions of pounds] Same as the SA countries.

Before BSE the US was also the worlds #1 exporter of beef. Not tons but in value.

Sure Europe and Asia buy parts that Americans don't eat. Adds very little to the value of our critters. The low value of theses parts any profit would be to packers and exporters, shipping etc.

[options]

By the way the US does not come close to supplying its own domestic demand for beef.
We [the US] remains the worlds largest importer of beef.

Only 950,000 head short seems somewhat close to supplying our own demand I would think.

The only countries we import by the head is Canada and Mexico. Australia the #1 supplier of imported beef to the US is all in boxes. [billions of pounds] Same as the SA countries.

Before BSE the US was also the worlds #1 exporter of beef. Not tons but in value.

Sure Europe and Asia buy parts that Americans don't eat. Adds very little to the value of our critters. The low value of theses parts any profit would be to packers and exporters, shipping etc.

Where did you get the idea Australia supplies billions of pounds of boxed beef to the US from? The 950,000 head was the easy way to express how few cattle it would take to become a net exporter again, instead of a net importer. We are only 740,000,000 pounds short of meeting our needs.

[mnmtranching]

wwwdailylivestockreport.com

The Us imported 3,100,000,000 pounds of beef in 2008. Australia was # 1 exporter to the US.