"Voluntary" cutbacks

[TexasBred]

weve been though all of the down cycles in the 70s 80s an 90s.an sold out 6 months before the cycle went back up.an when it went up the cows went from $1200 to $2000.an they was paying high an wide for the cows an heifers.so yes now is the time to jump in 80 cows now would cost $80,000 or less.but a man could tough it out.we made it though $9 feed an $10 milk before.

Bull...only problem now is you have $12.50 or higher feed and $9.50 a hundred-weight mailbox price on milk. That's 82 cents a gallon to the dairyman. Milk checks at many dairies are not even covering feed bills, let alone all the other expenses. Dairies with NO debt are shutting the doors in this area every day or digging into savings just to keep current on bills.

Many good dairy cattle are being sold at packer cow prices so a fellow can't even afford to sell out.

[bigbull338]

yes you got that right.but i guess if i could id still try to jump back in.but sooner or later the feed will have to come down.or people will find cheaper ways to feed the cows.or go to a grass based dairy.

[TexasBred]

yes you got that right.but i guess if i could id still try to jump back in.but sooner or later the feed will have to come down.or people will find cheaper ways to feed the cows.or go to a grass based dairy.

Grass fed has always been the cheapest way to produce milk. Most people just want MORE milk than grass will typically make. AND it requires more acreage.

[dun]

yes you got that right.but i guess if i could id still try to jump back in.but sooner or later the feed will have to come down.or people will find cheaper ways to feed the cows.or go to a grass based dairy.

Grass fed has always been the cheapest way to produce milk. Most people just want MORE milk than grass will typically make. AND it requires more acreage.

And better quality grass then a lot of people can grow. We had one old dairyman, now retired, that built his herd on fescue doing Holsteins. He did real well. Most of the people trying to run dairys on fescue lose their butts because the cows just don;t perform well unless they have the genetics for it

[GMN]

man its the right time to jump into the dairy business again.if i wasnt so busted up.an could do the milking id jump back into milking.

I've heard you say this alot on this site. If you loved it so much, why didn't you just buy the cows from your family, and hire help and keep on going?

I would not advise anyone in good conscious right now to get into the dairy business. Its a financial nightmare right now, and I don't care if you have a big herd or small, the struggle is on for everyone. The only ones I can see who aren't going to be drastically effected are the older farmers, who don't have morgtages and or a many other bills.

You will see a decline in dairies over the next 6 months, count on it.

Yet when I go grocery shopiing, icecream is still $4-5 for a half gallon, cheese is still $4-5 a lb, and milk has gone down maybe .70 cents. If you ask me something isn't right somewhere, someone is making a ton of money off of us dairy farmers, is it the milk companies, the stores? Who knows, but I think its crooked all the way around!

GMN

[bigbull338]

well i can answer your qs very easy.1 im a diehard old dairymen.ive always put the cows before my personal life.an with beef cattle i do the samething.2 my body is to beat up now to go back on my own.not to mention the barn has seen her better days.3 to get top end help youd have to pay $30,000 a yr or more pre hand.4 i love the dairy more than anything in the world.bluntly put if you dont love it enough to ride the bad times out.then its time to throw in the towel.i wasnt granted good health.thats why the dairy is gone.an i blame myself everyday for it.an when cattle bottom out like this makes me wish the barn was running.

[GMN]

well i can answer your qs very easy.1 im a diehard old dairymen.ive always put the cows before my personal life.an with beef cattle i do the samething.2 my body is to beat up now to go back on my own.not to mention the barn has seen her better days.3 to get top end help youd have to pay $30,000 a yr or more pre hand.4 i love the dairy more than anything in the world.bluntly put if you dont love it enough to ride the bad times out.then its time to throw in the towel.i wasnt granted good health.thats why the dairy is gone.an i blame myself everyday for it.an when cattle bottom out like this makes me wish the barn was running.

I have ridden out alot of bad times, but this time it seems to be different somehow. When I started, grain was high, milk was low, BUT steel posts were $1.89 for one, now they are $5 +, groceries were cheaper, now they aren't, the cost of living has quadrupled, but the milk prices, except for last year, we are getting paid what farmers were making 30 plus years ago. The formula to figure milk prices needs to change, what was good 30 years ago, is not anymore.

I 'm not hanging it up yet, but who knows what the future holds.

GMN

[TexasBred]

Anybody that tells you he's making a profit operating a dairy right now is lieing thru this teeth....regardless of the size of the dairy or whether he has zero debt.....they simply do not cash flow, let alone show a profit. $5 per day per cow income won't work when the cost of feed alone in our area is $6.50 per cow per day.....the bigger you are....the more you lose.

[dun]

They interviewed an old dairyman on the news the other. He's the third generation to be dairying on his farm soon to be in the family for 100 years. His claim is that he's losing a dollar a day per cow. In todays market that's doing really good.

[francismilker]

I'm in agreement with those that say anyone claiming a profit today is lying through their teeth. I would say though if I was going to try and get back into dairying, I'd not go and buy a heard of fresh cows. I'd go and buy up a string of weined heifers and watch the milk prices before I ever let them make it into the parlor. If you buy a six month old heifer right now, you've got about 8-9 months before you even need to think about putting a bull on them. You've got 18 months before they'll come fresh. And if the milk prices don't rebound, you can cut your losses and sell a bunch of springing bred heifers. You'll have the cost of cows and feed (which hopefully could be a grass-based diet) and health care costs of the critters to repay. But, you will be able to recoop some or all of your original investment at the sale barn. You might even be able to contract the entire string out to a broker or large dairy that still hasn't figured out that large numbers aren't more economical in these times.

You could use this time of feeding to cull out any that weren't measuring up to the low-input grazing style with body condition. As well, you would have a little time to find out how many potential parlor dancers you were raising. It's awful tough to get a nice looking springer home only to find out she's a milk time square dancer.

[TexasBred]

Francis I have several friends that do what you're recommending as a full time business and they don't even own a dairy and have no intention of ever dairying. But they do know dairy cattle and we have quite a few dairymen that never raise replacements and would rather purchase them. Growing out dairy cattle is pretty good business if you have the set up to handle it and have good heifers to begin with. Ordinarily there are not that many health related issues down here with non lactating cattle so that cost is minimal and even the "not so good heifers" will bring a darn good price.

[GMN]

Francis I have several friends that do what you're recommending as a full time business and they don't even own a dairy and have no intention of ever dairying. But they do know dairy cattle and we have quite a few dairymen that never raise replacements and would rather purchase them. Growing out dairy cattle is pretty good business if you have the set up to handle it and have good heifers to begin with. Ordinarily there are not that many health related issues down here with non lactating cattle so that cost is minimal and even the "not so good heifers" will bring a darn good price.

The heifer market is in the toilet right now-Unfortunately.

GMN

[TexasBred]

Francis I have several friends that do what you're recommending as a full time business and they don't even own a dairy and have no intention of ever dairying. But they do know dairy cattle and we have quite a few dairymen that never raise replacements and would rather purchase them. Growing out dairy cattle is pretty good business if you have the set up to handle it and have good heifers to begin with. Ordinarily there are not that many health related issues down here with non lactating cattle so that cost is minimal and even the "not so good heifers" will bring a darn good price.

The heifer market is in the toilet right now-Unfortunately.

GMN

Prices have crashed here as well....Everything is about half what it was 6 months ago, but present prices are much more realistic.

[GMN]

Francis I have several friends that do what you're recommending as a full time business and they don't even own a dairy and have no intention of ever dairying. But they do know dairy cattle and we have quite a few dairymen that never raise replacements and would rather purchase them. Growing out dairy cattle is pretty good business if you have the set up to handle it and have good heifers to begin with. Ordinarily there are not that many health related issues down here with non lactating cattle so that cost is minimal and even the "not so good heifers" will bring a darn good price.

The heifer market is in the toilet right now-Unfortunately.

GMN

Prices have crashed here as well....Everything is about half what it was 6 months ago, but present prices are much more realistic.

Realistic for the ones who are buying, but as a dairy farmer it was always nice to raise up a group or 2, and be able to sell them and get a great price for them. I wouldn't sell a heifer now for what they are worth, may as well keep them and milk them.

GMN

[novaman]

The prices are realistic for everyone IMO. If milk isn't worth much why would heifers be worth that much? The problem is too many people think they can raise heifers and sell them for a decent profit. From what I understand, the market is flooded with dairy heifers the way it is.