Futures opinion...

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Futures opinion...

Post by TNRiver » Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:06 am

I replied to a post in the Beginners section with my opinion and I wanted to ask the rest of you CT'ers your opinion.. Do you think the devastation/loss in the Midwest this spring will affect the fall market reports at all?



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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by 5S Cattle » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:03 am

I don’t see how it couldn’t. But then again, I’m still expecting to be broke at that time so don’t bank on my opinion. How many head did they lose up there?

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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by TNRiver » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:17 am

5S Cattle wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:03 am
I don’t see how it couldn’t. But then again, I’m still expecting to be broke at that time so don’t bank on my opinion. How many head did they lose up there?
It seems like i never have enough "funds" to be able to capitalize on such events either 5S lol... I don't know for sure how many they lost.. I heard a report on RFD-TV last week that was talking about it and said the number could be up around 1.5 Million momma cows and 1 Million calves.... no idea how realistic those numbers are...

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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by Caustic Burno » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:38 am

Yes IMOO I see it much like the 2011-2012 droughts on a smaller scale of course. Latest workshop I attended the economist talking heads were talking about slight price increases through 2021 due to predicted inventories.
If that is the case I don’t see how it can’t. The one thing I am seeing is the spread get bigger on premium calves versus back forty stuff. The instability is even noted in this weeks sale report.
https://easttexaslivestock.com/wp-conte ... -17-17.pdf
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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by TexasBred » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:44 am

Cattle losses in Nebraska from the March flooding will be much lower than previously reported, the Nebraska Department of Agriculture said this week.
Director Steve Wellman said reports of up to a million cattle killed in the natural disaster are not accurate.

U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue had said during a TV interview after the flooding that as many as 1 million calves were lost in Nebraska. That total was later walked back.
“We haven’t come up with a number, but it’s estimated to be closer to thousands,’’ Wellman said.
Bobbie Kriz-Wickham, the public affairs and outreach coordinator for the Nebraska Farm Service Agency, agreed that the numbers should be significantly lower than what Perdue said.
But no one knows yet how much lower.
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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by pdfangus » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:52 am

what yall have to remember is how many of the meat companies are now international....There is Canadian Beef and South American Beef....
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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by True Grit Farms » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:31 am

Hurricane Harvey, ND - SD spring blizzard, and the mid west drought last year had no impact on cattle prices. Like it or not the cattle prices are controlled by the stinking paper pushers.
If we'd of know this we'd of picked our own cotton.

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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by sim.-ang.king » Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:31 pm

Not a lot.
Cattle inventory is higher than pre-2011 numbers. Also imports are higher to make up the difference. Plus a lot of cows that were counted as "lost to the flood" could of just swam down stream and end up in someone else's pasture. Floods usally are less damaging than long term droughts which take years to recover from. Sucks for the people that have to live through the flood though.
This summer will have greater effect on prices than what this winter did.
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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by insurman » Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:11 pm

One of my daughters is a commodity broker and does most of her work in cattle and hogs...and I know works with a lot of large producers. I will see what she is doing.

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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by TNRiver » Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:39 pm

True Grit Farms wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:31 am
Hurricane Harvey, ND - SD spring blizzard, and the mid west drought last year had no impact on cattle prices. Like it or not the cattle prices are controlled by the stinking paper pushers.
I understand us common producers have even less control than we think we do on the markets... but who exactly are you meaning by the "paper pushers"?

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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by TNRiver » Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:42 pm

sim.-ang.king wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:31 pm
Not a lot.
Cattle inventory is higher than pre-2011 numbers. Also imports are higher to make up the difference. Plus a lot of cows that were counted as "lost to the flood" could of just swam down stream and end up in someone else's pasture. Floods usally are less damaging than long term droughts which take years to recover from. Sucks for the people that have to live through the flood though.
This summer will have greater effect on prices than what this winter did.
That's an interesting point... what exactly would be the protocol in this instance? Honor system to return the cattle? Chalk it up to a total loss? Depend on the brand and tag of your cattle to be identified?... Just curious, because this type of event is extremely uncommon in my neck of the woods (East TN)

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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by True Grit Farms » Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:55 pm

TNRiver wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:39 pm
True Grit Farms wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:31 am
Hurricane Harvey, ND - SD spring blizzard, and the mid west drought last year had no impact on cattle prices. Like it or not the cattle prices are controlled by the stinking paper pushers.
I understand us common producers have even less control than we think we do on the markets... but who exactly are you meaning by the "paper pushers"?
http://www.tkfutures.com/feeder_cattle.htm
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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by sim.-ang.king » Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:19 pm

TNRiver wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:42 pm
sim.-ang.king wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:31 pm
Not a lot.
Cattle inventory is higher than pre-2011 numbers. Also imports are higher to make up the difference. Plus a lot of cows that were counted as "lost to the flood" could of just swam down stream and end up in someone else's pasture. Floods usally are less damaging than long term droughts which take years to recover from. Sucks for the people that have to live through the flood though.
This summer will have greater effect on prices than what this winter did.
That's an interesting point... what exactly would be the protocol in this instance? Honor system to return the cattle? Chalk it up to a total loss? Depend on the brand and tag of your cattle to be identified?... Just curious, because this type of event is extremely uncommon in my neck of the woods (East TN)
All states have maverick laws, so you can't legally sell an animal that just shows up at your back door. Google maverick laws in x state, to learn more.
If they're branded you can look up the brand in the state brand register.
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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by Brookhill Angus » Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:52 pm

So much of futures trading now is based on algos, what has happened thus far is most likely already priced in. Now if we have future shocks to the system things could change.

Ray Dalio’s hedge fund company Bridgewater wipes it’s rear with most of the market players because he has trading systems that have little human involvement.

Trading is a tough business, one step forward, sometimes 10 steps back. Guessing the movement of the markets is almost a fools errand long term.
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Re: Futures opinion...

Post by Bigfoot » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:13 pm

IMHO, the price of commodities are controlled by factors that go much deeper than what we (the producer) are able to forecast. A fine example of the have nots wanting what the haves have. The problem is the haves don’t want anybody else to have anything.
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