EPD's are BS

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Midtenn
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Midtenn » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:48 pm

According to AAA's own accuracy table..... At 30% accuracy, milk number should not change over 7 points. Butch here's some simple math for you ......44-20 = ?

I'm not here to argue, I just would like to understand how AAA can say one thing and do another. Should I totally disregard numbers below .95 accuracy? I'm starting to think maybe so....

To answer BSE's question....I am not after high milk at all. I would have never considered the generation bull at 44 milk and -30 something EN. He always looked to me like he would throw good saleable bulls for sure, and now , if his new numbers are somewhat reliable, I would keep his heifers. But that's the part I don't know whether to trust.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Midtenn » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:07 pm

According to the aaa database , there's only 2 bulls born since 2005 with.95 milk accuracy. So do we all need to use only those 2 bulls for maternal sires, or do we lower our accuracy standards to 90% ? 80% ? What's the magic number? Or do we go back to phenotype, pedigree, and forget the numbers? Hence the origin of this thread.....maybe epd's really are BS ?
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Son of Butch » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:28 pm

No... because it was a base change update combined with improved accuracy formulation.
All progressive breeds have major epd changes about every 15 years or so to fine tune info and improve accuracy.
It's A One Time dramatic change for some individuals... ESPECIALLY unproven (LOW Accuracy) animals.

Just because an individual is high accuracy for 1 trait (birth weight) does not make him high accuracy for all traits.
The associations go to great lengths to collect and present their information and accuracy for each trait.
The AAA has been transparent in explaining the collection and processing changes with hows and whys.
It has to be frustrating for them having uninformed individuals call epds B.S. because a .27 accuracy trait changes
dramatically to a more correct evaluation with a higher, but still unproven, rating of .41 accuracy.

IMO
.49 and below is unproven, semi proven is .50 to .69 proven is .70 -.90 and highly proven is >.90
Farmers willing to pay as much for an unproven bull as a proven sire baffles me.
Guess they are motivated by fear... maybe afraid they'll miss out on bragging rights to the next hot thing.

In addition beef milk production is tricky to accurately calculate because...
All Beef Farmers Are Lazy... you want to fix it?
Run the cows into a barn to have their milk weighed and tested, then Milk edp accuracy would improve greatly.


jk :)
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Son of Butch
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Son of Butch » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:38 pm

Midtenn wrote:if his new numbers are somewhat reliable, I would keep his heifers. But that's the part I don't know whether to trust.

IF you are comfortable with 41% accuracy and a 20% margin of error... go for it... I prefer > 69%
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby wbvs58 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:57 am

Butch, it is my understanding in Australia that the milk EBV in beef breeds is calculated from the weaning weights of a cows progeny.

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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Son of Butch » Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:35 am

wbvs58 wrote:Butch, it is my understanding in Australia that the milk EBV in beef breeds is calculated from the weaning weights of a cows progeny.

Correct and other growth factors including 'milk thief' calves can affect an individual's weaning weight.
I was admiring a calf's growth from one of my heifers that I thought must be a good milker, until I saw him stealing an
extra meal from another smaller calf's momma, plus some calves will hit the creep feeder harder than others.
Making it hard to give credit where credit is due.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby talltimber » Tue Aug 15, 2017 6:13 am

And don't forget the old, "Garbage in, garbage out" saying. I'm satisfied that happens enough to cause inaccurate numbers in some animals. Assoc wide? idk. I would hope not.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Chocolate Cow » Tue Aug 15, 2017 6:25 am

Middtenn-did your milk search in the AAA datebase show this bull? Jad Phelps Z1708 Reg: AAA 17472368
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby bse » Tue Aug 15, 2017 6:34 am

Butch
Im not sure what you are talking about with UT acc at .27 all they require to qualify is .15 and back to what I said they have brainwashed everyone.
I think you hit on all the points to the milk EPD no doubt one of the toughest to get right.
AAA seems to redo numbers every couple of yrs, it pushes a lot to the top drops some to the bottom, so if you don't like the 1 step wait about 2 yrs it will change!
For me im still not calling BS on EPDs
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Midtenn » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:22 pm

Son of Butch wrote:No... because it was a base change update combined with improved accuracy formulation.
All progressive breeds have major epd changes about every 15 years or so to fine tune info and improve accuracy.
It's A One Time dramatic change for some individuals... ESPECIALLY unproven (LOW Accuracy) animals.

Just because an individual is high accuracy for 1 trait (birth weight) does not make him high accuracy for all traits.
The associations go to great lengths to collect and present their information and accuracy for each trait.
The AAA has been transparent in explaining the collection and processing changes with hows and whys.
It has to be frustrating for them having uninformed individuals call epds B.S. because a .27 accuracy trait changes
dramatically to a more correct evaluation with a higher, but still unproven, rating of .41 accuracy.

IMO
.49 and below is unproven, semi proven is .50 to .69 proven is .70 -.90 and highly proven is >.90
Farmers willing to pay as much for an unproven bull as a proven sire baffles me.
Guess they are motivated by fear... maybe afraid they'll miss out on bragging rights to the next hot thing.

In addition beef milk production is tricky to accurately calculate because...
All Beef Farmers Are Lazy... you want to fix it?
Run the cows into a barn to have their milk weighed and tested, then Milk edp accuracy would improve greatly.


jk :)


This got all off on a conversation about milk epds. I was just using that as an extreme example of how drastically inaccurate epds really are. I do not think ANY of them are close to accurate until.95 or better and even then they will change more than the AAA accuracy table suggests (one third of the time). ABS advertises Generation as a "high accuracy multi trait sire". You missed my whole point....my point being EPD's are way overrated. I feel more comfortable trusting the history of my own herd, cows and bulls. I feel that is much more accurate than any epd's. I don't measure milk production, but have a pretty good idea of it based on fertility, body condition, calf growth, and inputs.
I have to use epd's to some extent when bringing in new bloodlines, but it's secondary to phenotype, progeny data (if available and trustworthy) and performance (if my gut tells me its true).
The most aggravating part to me is that in order to sell bulls, the epds numbers have to be in the range. It doesn't matter to most customers that the yearling bull they purchase is only .05 accurate, but the ced, bw, and ww numbers matter big time. You try to tell someone epd's at .05 or even .35 don't matter and see how many bulls you sell.
As I said in my first post, I will be natural breeding heifers to a 0 ced and 3.0 bw yearling bull come fall because I trust my own witness to history more than someone else's numbers. After that he will go on 25 commercial crossbred cows as a terminal at least for one season...his ww is only 50. But again I trust my own eyesight and ability to read scales more than numbers someone else derived. Truth is, he is probably neither calving ease or terminal, but balanced. But in my opinion he's the best bull been on my place in 2 years, though possibly unsalable to a epd informed customer....ain't that funny.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby gizmom » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:29 pm

I don't think EPD's are BS I think chasing them is BS.

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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Rafter S » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:39 pm

gizmom wrote:I don't think EPD's are BS I think chasing them is BS.

Gizmom


:clap: :clap: :clap:
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Midtenn
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Midtenn » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:20 pm

gizmom wrote:I don't think EPD's are BS I think chasing them is BS.

Gizmom



Well said. Wish I had thought of that.....I used that title to draw attention for conversation, didnt have the effect I'd hoped.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby WalnutCrest » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:59 pm

Son of Butch wrote:
wbvs58 wrote:Butch, it is my understanding in Australia that the milk EBV in beef breeds is calculated from the weaning weights of a cows progeny.

Correct and other growth factors including 'milk thief' calves can affect an individual's weaning weight.
I was admiring a calf's growth from one of my heifers that I thought must be a good milker, until I saw him stealing an
extra meal from another smaller calf's momma, plus some calves will hit the creep feeder harder than others.
Making it hard to give credit where credit is due.


WBVS58 -- The French (for all breeds, I believe) weigh the calves at 120 days and use this as a proxy for determining milking ability of the dam and then by extension, for the sires for each dam. This idea makes quite a bit of sense to me...

SoB -- Quit creeping the calves and you'll get a better picture of what's what. Plus your chores (and feed bill) will be more manageable. :)
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby kilroy60 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:44 am

I've a neigbor who is big time in registered black angus. He bought a high dollar bull from out west a couple of years ago - EPD's were out of the roof for being so good. Long story short, now this bull's epd is no longer top in the bull market. And, most of his herd now is much lower in epd value since american angus readjusted numbers. He now knows why several big time ranches had complete dispersals last year and early spring this year. It does make you wonder how and why some of the ranches sold all they had which had great epd values but are now nothing special since the adjustment.
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