Ag Economics

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Stocker Steve
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Ag Economics

Post by Stocker Steve » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:53 pm

Found a blog by that name with a number of archived articles. They tend to take a 10 to 15 year long look at where we have been and where we are going. Nice graphs but not much detail. A couple things stood out to me:

- Some of the biggest variations in farm income are in the upper Midwest. Wheat income has come down the most of any major commodity. I think a number of folks went from wheat and cows to corn and beans, which boomed and then went bust.
- Total equipment costs per acre is coming down a little. Making both machinery payments and land rent payments does not seem doable today.
- Average cow calf producers are only covering their variable costs recently.


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Re: Ag Economics

Post by Aaron » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:39 am

Winter starting to settle in here. Think there will be a lot of moving and shaking going on in all Ag sectors in the coming months/year, particularly in this country with no subsidies and poor stability/insurance programs. Too many guys running out of rope and the noose is tightening. People say the crop guys will go into cattle, but I don't know who those guys are because all the ones I know ran from cows to crops because they despised the workload.
cor durum laborem

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Re: Ag Economics

Post by Stocker Steve » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:51 am

Aaron People say the crop guys will go into cattle, but I don't know who those guys are because all the ones I know ran from cows to crops because they despised the workload. [/quote wrote:
That, and there is a lot of investment required for good cows and facilities. In the land of 10,000 Trump checks - - your highest ROI for commodity ag is usually planting crops and hiring a custom combine. Corn, beans, and Cancun!

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Re: Ag Economics

Post by shaz » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:00 am

The biggest cattle operations that I'm aware of in North central Alabama have all gone to cotton.
"The Pope? How many divisions does he have?" Joseph Stalin

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Re: Ag Economics

Post by Stocker Steve » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:46 am

shaz wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:00 am
The biggest cattle operations that I'm aware of in North central Alabama have all gone to cotton.
Locally - - there is only about a third of the land that is fertile enough and well drained enough to expect a decent crop. But, some a holes with rent poor ground, apply minimal inputs, and plan on collecting crop insurance against county average yields...

What did they do with Alabama pasture ground when they went to cotton?
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Re: Ag Economics

Post by Bigfoot » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:59 am

I don’t tout this much, but I have a degree in economics. The best lesson I gleaned from that experience is also in the Bible........Nobody knows the future. With all that said, I predict the future of the farm economy as bleak.
Your not a small business owner. Your a stay at home mom trapped in a pyramid scheme.

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Re: Ag Economics

Post by Silver » Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:28 pm

I guess I'm a bit of an optimist. I think the ag future is bright. But I plan on it being bad.

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Re: Ag Economics

Post by shaz » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:12 pm

Bigfoot wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:59 am
I don’t tout this much, but I have a degree in economics. The best lesson I gleaned from that experience is also in the Bible........Nobody knows the future. With all that said, I predict the future of the farm economy as bleak.
I'm going to have to convince the step kids that they shouldn't sell the farm when I'm gone.....
"The Pope? How many divisions does he have?" Joseph Stalin

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Re: Ag Economics

Post by Stocker Steve » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:24 pm

[quote=Bigfoot The best lesson I gleaned from that experience is also in the Bible........Nobody knows the future. With all that said, I predict the future of the farm economy as bleak.
[/quote]

What about the 7 fat years?
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Re: Ag Economics

Post by Bigfoot » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:18 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:24 pm
[quote=Bigfoot The best lesson I gleaned from that experience is also in the Bible........Nobody knows the future. With all that said, I predict the future of the farm economy as bleak.
What about the 7 fat years?
[/quote]

Well, a prophet would know the future. That job kinda fell to the way side when the curtain got torn. Intersting to note that when it was time for Joseph's brothers to introduce themselves to Pharaoh, they said we are keepers of livestock, like our father and his father before him. They were proud of their lineage, and being ranchy. I respect that.
Your not a small business owner. Your a stay at home mom trapped in a pyramid scheme.

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