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Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:43 pm
by Stocker Steve
Plain summer (June/July) calvers are selling for almost the same price as In Season (Mar/April/May) calvers recently. Seems odd, unless they are going on feed? Are you seeing this?

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:03 pm
by Dave
The big stock cow sale at Toppenish back the first of the month I think they killed all the May-June-July calving cows. They certainly killed the vast majority.

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:07 pm
by Stocker Steve
Some folks here feed cull cows corn silage plus by products this time of year. Seems to be lower risk and less management than fat cattle.

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:32 am
by Katpau
In this area there are very few buyers looking to add bred cows to their herd in the fall. Those that do, will usually buy a larger set of similar cows from a dispersal, and there are plenty of those this year. The sale barns usually have order buyers in the stands and not much of anyone else.
I sold 11 registered Angus cows this fall at the sale barn and most of them were bred. They had some age, but were still pretty good cows, so I decided to see what would happen if I sold them as bred. They ended up bringing about the same or less than the opens but I had to pay a slightly higher commission on the sale and also a few dollars to have the pregnancy confirmed. These cows would have been due in February or March so were about 4-5 months bred. They were mostly in pretty good flesh, so I expect they went directly to the packer meaning the calf was a liability.

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:55 am
by Aaron
I think the majority of cows are going to slaughter in North America.

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:44 pm
by gcreekrch
Aaron wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:55 am
I think the majority of cows are going to slaughter in North America.
Not a bad thing for those of us too lazy to work and too honest to steal.

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:24 pm
by Aaron
gcreekrch wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:44 pm
Aaron wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:55 am
I think the majority of cows are going to slaughter in North America.
Not a bad thing for those of us too lazy to work.
My problem is the people I would have to work with. People are the worst. Take a cantankerous bull over a union yes-man any day.

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:33 pm
by gcreekrch
Aaron wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:24 pm
gcreekrch wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:44 pm
Aaron wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:55 am
I think the majority of cows are going to slaughter in North America.
Not a bad thing for those of us too lazy to work.
My problem is the people I would have to work with. People are the worst. Take a cantankerous bull over a union yes-man any day.
None of them in miles either...….

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:34 pm
by Stocker Steve
Aaron wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:55 am
I think the majority of cows are going to slaughter in North America.
Not here. We have hay so we sell skinny steins and buy back fleshy bred beef cows. :cboy:

An enterprise question is - - are you better off buying bred beef cows or selling grass hay?

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:40 pm
by Aaron
Stocker Steve wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:34 pm
Aaron wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:55 am
I think the majority of cows are going to slaughter in North America.
Not here. We have hay so we sell skinny steins and buy back fleshy bred beef cows. :cboy:

An enterprise question is - - are you better off buying bred beef cows or selling grass hay?
Well, here you can name the price for one and take what you are given for the other.

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:03 pm
by Stocker Steve
Aaron wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:40 pm
[quote="Stocker Steve"
Not here. We have hay so we sell skinny steins and buy back fleshy bred beef cows. :cboy: An enterprise question is - - are you better off buying bred beef cows or selling grass hay?
Well, here you can name the price for one and take what you are given for the other.
[/quote]

Dammm. I thought you might say that.

Breds were so cheap I bought a trailer of in season heifers at the last sale. :hide: Talked to Harlan afterwards. He did not think these new girls would still be producing when we hit the next beef price peak. Buy low sell low?

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 7:05 pm
by Aaron
Stocker Steve wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:03 pm
Aaron wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:40 pm
[quote="Stocker Steve"
Not here. We have hay so we sell skinny steins and buy back fleshy bred beef cows. :cboy: An enterprise question is - - are you better off buying bred beef cows or selling grass hay?
Well, here you can name the price for one and take what you are given for the other.
Dammm. I thought you might say that.

Breds were so cheap I bought a trailer of in season heifers at the last sale. :hide: Talked to Harlan afterwards. He did not think these new girls would still be producing when we hit the next beef price peak. Buy low sell low?
[/quote]

If he is suggesting that the next price peak is 8 years away, he won't have to worry about forecasting the beef industry trends anymore because there won't be one by then. The old guys will be out and the young guys will be bankrupt.

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:27 am
by Stocker Steve
Beef price cycles have been getting longer lately. Unknowable question is what disease and trade emergencies are we going to have during the next couple years?
Harlan assumes 7 calves per cow before she becomes burger. An analysis of culling at 15 to 20% per year will tell you that that is optimistic.
There are producers making money at todays prices, but you can bet that they are doing some things different than the average. One of Bud's observations was that it can be harder to make a good sell buy with cows compared to calves. I think speculators bidding up the price of summer calvers is an example.

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Mon Dec 30, 2019 9:58 am
by gcreekrch
When all the world goes one way, go the other...........

Re: Summer Calving Cow Prices ?

Posted: Mon Dec 30, 2019 10:09 am
by Aaron
gcreekrch wrote:
Mon Dec 30, 2019 9:58 am
When all the world goes one way, go the other...........
Unless you are running from zombies. Then you run the same way and trip the guy in front of you. :D