Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Discuss upcoming sales and sale results.
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Brute 23
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Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by Brute 23 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:51 pm

Curious what people's thoughts are on this scenario.

The boss man asked me about keeping about 50 calves thru the winter. We have these calves that are around #550 +-50. Prices in are area are pretty bad. Avg is 1.10 no matter bull, steer, heifer or the size which I don't understand. Saw a friends sale receipts out of OK where he got 1.50 just a couple weeks ago.

I would not want to feed them any grain or any thing like that on regular basis. We have a pasture with plenty of green grass for them and it will stay like that until are first freeze which my be Dec or Jan. Even then it may not be green but there will be plenty of stock piles grass. We usually only feed hay 2-3 months. We have plenty of hay.

I'm usually a bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush kind of guy but I can see some upside in this scenario and very little down side. If prices come up .10 - .20 by March or so it will have been well worth it but is that a realistic scenario?

What's every ones thoughts on this? Im trying to see both sides, the pros and cons. Im asking because it seems a little to good to be true and don't really see a down side. I don't really have an argument against it right now. :???:


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Re: Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by Brute 23 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:57 pm

We do keep heifers thru the winter like this every year. We have about 20 heifers going to stay thru this winter also. Our costs are very minimal on the heifers every year. They get hay, salt, mineral, maybe some molasses once we get a hard freeze and some cubes every now and then to keep them coming to pens but that's about it. They always come out the back side in pretty good shape but not real fleshy.
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Re: Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by bball » Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:57 pm

Brute, is he selling you the calfs at current price or going to pay you something for keeping them thru winter but he still maintains ownership? Something to consider, if you haven't already, keeping the heifers separated from any bull calfs.
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Re: Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by Stocker Steve » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:19 pm

There are some wheeler dealer buy sell margin operator in the south and the west. I asked one why he did not come north or east of Wyoming. He said it cost too much to winter cattle (in my area) so the profit was not usually there. :cry2:

No one knows what the cattle market will be next year. My GUESS is that exports will continue to increase and we will see a slight uptick. We usually get a small bounce after New Years. Is that true in the south?
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Re: Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by bird dog » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:34 pm

Well they won't gain hardly anything so you are going to have to get more money on price alone. The grass may still have some color in it , but its not very nutritious. I would at least get them weaned good and sell at the last sale before Christmas or the first one or two in 2020. You might look around for someone that has some wheat started and see if they would be interested in some pre-conditioned animals.

Your also gonna have time to get them weaned and maybe hit a 45 day wean sale or something like that. Those are usually worth it even if you have to haul them a 100 miles.

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Re: Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by Brute 23 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:50 pm

These calves are owned. It's just a debate of selling them now or after the first of the year.

I hate selling between thanksgiving and the new year any way.
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Re: Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by Brute 23 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:51 pm

I could put some oats and rye in still and probably put more weight on them I just didnt know if it's worth the risk.
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Re: Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by Banjo » Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:25 pm

If you don't have to sell....why not keep them . If you got any grass or even hay..... take them thru the winter and your gonna get compensitory gain when they start eating all the grass they want. Sell them about 7 or 800 lbs. They will bring more per pond than 5 weights off the cow.

That's my opinion.....feel free to make it yours.

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Re: Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by shaz » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:56 pm

If your costs are that low it's probably as safe a bet as anything else. The guy is your boss so maybe you should do it anyway.
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Re: Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by callmefence » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:09 pm

Brute 23 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:51 pm
I could put some oats and rye in still and probably put more weight on them I just didnt know if it's worth the risk.
That's what I would do. Or if you have the time to feed bring in a load of cottenseed. A few pounds every couple days would make a difference
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Re: Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by Brute 23 » Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:17 pm

callmefence wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:09 pm
Brute 23 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:51 pm
I could put some oats and rye in still and probably put more weight on them I just didnt know if it's worth the risk.
That's what I would do. Or if you have the time to feed bring in a load of cottenseed. A few pounds every couple days would make a difference
Got ya. Im not against feeding them a little just didn't know if any had a recommendation on what and how much to feed. I hate to just start throwing money at it blindly.
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Re: Thoughts on this scenario and the outlook..

Post by gcreekrch » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:53 pm

We put 650 calves in a feedlot in the last month. They were bought with a $75+ profit built in on today’s market. Will have them forward contracted by year end.

Whatever you feed them, including grass, make sure they gain more in weight than it costs to feed them. Calves that stand still never make anyone a dime.
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