Export or Bust ?

Discuss upcoming sales and sale results.
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Stocker Steve
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Export or Bust ?

Post by Stocker Steve » Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:24 pm

Ag web just published alot of global meat production and export trends. World wide for 2019, and again for 2020, they project exported pounds increasing by:

10 to 11% in pork
4 to 6% in poultry
4 to 5% in beef

Until there is an effective way to control swine flu, we seem to have some support in the poultry and beef markets.


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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by shaz » Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:08 pm

Nice to see that but we still have a domestic supply problem by 10-15% as far as I can tell.
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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by Stocker Steve » Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:42 pm

Ya, we prefer to overproduce. Even the Chinese can not consume all of it all of the time. So then you get into these boom to bust cycles where the lawyers and the auctioneers get rich.

I think the industry, and many producers, would be better off if folks could dial back the inputs for a lower breakeven and lower output.
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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by Aaron » Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:13 am

Stocker Steve wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:42 pm
Ya, we prefer to overproduce. Even the Chinese can not consume all of it all of the time. So then you get into these boom to bust cycles where the lawyers and the auctioneers get rich.

I think the industry, and many producers, would be better off if folks could dial back the inputs for a lower breakeven and lower output.
Or maybe just quit producing in areas where land cost will never be paid for by cattle? That would eliminate a few extra million head.
cor durum laborem

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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by Stocker Steve » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:55 am

Ag ROI has been driven by land appreciation. I saw one analysis that calculated it was 2/3 of the total ag return since 1960. So you need to seperate the land business from the cattle business.

Many are fixated on a quick hit from Chinese purchases, but there is still the long term issue of fake meat. Some project it will be like fake milk - - growing to perhaps 15% of the market. That is alot of additional meat to export somewhere else. Dairy has demonstrated what happens if you don't increase exports and you don't regulate supply.
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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by shaz » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:13 am

Yes, domestic demand has been dropping since the mid 70's because of the whole low fat thing that turned out to be untrue. demand for chicken has increased due to cost and people think it's actually healthier. If you have an agenda you can take the data you like and throw out the stuff you don't and we've been on the receiving end of all that bad hype for 5 decades now.

One of our problems in America is that we think we're actually smarter than grandpa was.
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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by JParrott » Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:01 pm

Aaron wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:13 am
Stocker Steve wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:42 pm
Ya, we prefer to overproduce. Even the Chinese can not consume all of it all of the time. So then you get into these boom to bust cycles where the lawyers and the auctioneers get rich.

I think the industry, and many producers, would be better off if folks could dial back the inputs for a lower breakeven and lower output.
Or maybe just quit producing in areas where land cost will never be paid for by cattle? That would eliminate a few extra million head.
What do they do with the land then? I see your point but land that is only good for growing grass has to pay for itself somehow or people that don't have a vested interest in the community buy it up as an investment and then it really doesn't do the community any good.

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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by Aaron » Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:25 pm

JParrott wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:01 pm
Aaron wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:13 am
Stocker Steve wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:42 pm
Ya, we prefer to overproduce. Even the Chinese can not consume all of it all of the time. So then you get into these boom to bust cycles where the lawyers and the auctioneers get rich.

I think the industry, and many producers, would be better off if folks could dial back the inputs for a lower breakeven and lower output.
Or maybe just quit producing in areas where land cost will never be paid for by cattle? That would eliminate a few extra million head.
What do they do with the land then? I see your point but land that is only good for growing grass has to pay for itself somehow or people that don't have a vested interest in the community buy it up as an investment and then it really doesn't do the community any good.
Happens up here with American hunters all the time. Lots of agriculture land sold and left to grow up into brush again for deer habitat. I have two neighboring properties that have been 'investment' properties for almost 70 years.
cor durum laborem

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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by Stocker Steve » Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:24 pm

[quote=Aaron Happens up here with American hunters all the time. Lots of agriculture land sold and left to grow up into brush again for deer habitat. I have two neighboring properties that have been 'investment' properties for almost 70 years.
[/quote]

Same here, back to trees n brush, which increases the property value according to the tax assessor. :shock: Recreational land is assessed higher than crop land which is assessed higher than pasture. This "enhancement" of value is one of the two big reasons it is hard to cash flow land with cattle here.

Aaron - - I thought there were restrictions against Americans buying recreational property in Canada?
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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by JParrott » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:54 pm

I don't think they're buying it. Canadians are buying it and letting Americans hunt on it.

I don't like investment properties. No one asked and it doesn't make a hill of beans, but I don't like it. Land needs to produce something other than trees, brush, and more be nice deer for me to hit over the next two months.

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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by Aaron » Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:10 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:24 pm
[quote=Aaron Happens up here with American hunters all the time. Lots of agriculture land sold and left to grow up into brush again for deer habitat. I have two neighboring properties that have been 'investment' properties for almost 70 years.
Same here, back to trees n brush, which increases the property value according to the tax assessor. :shock: Recreational land is assessed higher than crop land which is assessed higher than pasture. This "enhancement" of value is one of the two big reasons it is hard to cash flow land with cattle here.

Aaron - - I thought there were restrictions against Americans buying recreational property in Canada?
[/quote]

I wish there was. I think Saskatchewan has some very stringent laws on foreign ownership, but certainly not here. My Georgia neighbor's were just up this past week and had a quick visit with them at cattle auction. Chicken farmers from around Savannah. They are about the best I get around here.

I convinced a buddy to step up and by his cousin's 315 acre pasture before a regular hunter from Indiana jumped on a plane with a briefcase of cash and turned the whole thing into a nature reserve - full of wolves with a great view of buddy's newborn calves right beside it.
cor durum laborem

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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by Stocker Steve » Wed Oct 23, 2019 5:26 am

We get deer hunters from the Twin Cities with too much money. Some have local roots. Entertaining to see the "improvements" they make.

How often to these investors rent back to locals?
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Re: Export or Bust ?

Post by Aaron » Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:35 am

Stocker Steve wrote:
Wed Oct 23, 2019 5:26 am
We get deer hunters from the Twin Cities with too much money. Some have local roots. Entertaining to see the "improvements" they make.

How often to these investors rent back to locals?
My Georgia neighbors were the first I had ever seen rent back to locals. Majority that buy land want zero contact with locals - privacy is paramount.
cor durum laborem

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