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Updated Ag Guesses and Trump Checks

Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:14 pm
by Stocker Steve
Some updated government guesses just came out for future ag production and price. They showed small increases in grain and beef production, and small declines in price, for 2019-2020. Average steer calf price was forecasted down about $9 per hundred for 2019-2020, and then started to increase in 2021.

The rest of the story is the expectation that grain producers will get more Trump MFP checks in 2020. The big dogs around here are running 10,000 to 15,000 acres - - so $50/a Trump check x 10,000 acres is a half mil. :!: Looks like land prices will continue to hold up.

What do you think will happen in 2021?

Re: Updated Ag Guesses and Trump Checks

Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:42 pm
by Bigfoot
No predictions on prices. Prices will fluctuate with our weather and imports vs exports. Same old story there. The year I’ve had, if Trump offers checks to the cowman, I “might” get in line to pick mine up. Common sense tells me there will be no check for the cattle producer though.

Re: Updated Ag Guesses and Trump Checks

Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 5:29 pm
by ga.prime
There have been disaster relief checks for cattle producers before. In drought affected areas of Ga.I think it was 2009, $100/cow/bull/calves over a certain weight class because of reduced hay crop and again in 2010, but something less than $100 a cow that second year.

Re: Updated Ag Guesses and Trump Checks

Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:15 pm
by Stocker Steve
Never herd of cattle producers collecting government checks, outside of some the conservation programs.

Re: Updated Ag Guesses and Trump Checks

Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:02 pm
by Aaron
Your government is much more optimistic than I am. Enjoy it, but plan for the worst. That way everything comes up smelling like roses.

Re: Updated Ag Guesses and Trump Checks

Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:34 pm
by Nesikep
Aaron wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:02 pm
Your government is much more optimistic than I am. Enjoy it, but plan for the worst. That way everything comes up smelling like roses.
They're also far more socialist than our gov't.. Last time I saw a check from them for poor beef prices? Umm.. never, including the BSE days which were really miserable (and even worse for you I think)

Re: Updated Ag Guesses and Trump Checks

Posted: Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:29 am
by Stocker Steve
Aaron wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:02 pm
Your government is much more optimistic than I am. Enjoy it, but plan for the worst. That way everything comes up smelling like roses.
These guesstimates are yearly averages, so plenty of room for variation during that time period. I did call Harlan to get some additional input. He still thinks 2020 will be the bottom of this price cycle, but cautioned that beef prices may not go back up to the 2014 peaks.

Neighbor called this week complaining about grain and fed beef prices (he produces both). I pointed out that hog prices are going up, and he could convert his MT dairy barn to hogs, but he was not at all receptive. I wonder why more don't call for my advice? :cry: