Advice on what to do?

Discuss upcoming sales and sale results.
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sstterry
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Advice on what to do?

Post by sstterry » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:16 pm

Feeder calf prices are really tanking here. I have about 15 calves (steers and a few heifers I don't want to keep) I have been weaning and feeding in preparation to take them to the market. Most of these are
5 and 6 wts. With prices this low, and I have heard they are going to go lower, I am toying with the idea of just turning them back out and feeding them through the winter with the rest of the herd.

I have plenty of hay and I can also get more because it is really cheap here right now. With prices like this, I really can see a lot of folks just pitching in the towel and selling out. I just read about two more herd dispersals in our area that are taking place in November.

Does anyone have advice on what to do??



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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by TCRanch » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:36 pm

I'm weaning mid Oct and will keep my calves at least to the end of Dec but possibly through Jan/Feb. All contingent on whether prices go up and our tax situation. If we need to apply the income this year we'll sell & possibly take a hit. If the market picks up and we sell in Dec but we need the income on next year's taxes we can hold it over. Or we can let them graze the brome and hope the market picks up next year.

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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by TCRanch » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:38 pm

P.S. My weaners are generally in the 6-7 wt range when I sell.

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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by farmerjan » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:33 pm

Can't give you advice, but we are planning to hold ours for at least a couple of months now. There are a few odd ones that might go, and have a guy who bought 10 heifers last year that is wanting to come look at what we have to sell this year; but until we wean them, we won't have the "sell ones" separated out from the "keep ones". And if the prices on the heifers are that low, and in all decency, this guy isn't going to pay way above market price and I don't blame him, then we will be keeping most all of them until spring. We have about 25 steers, that are in the 350-450 range but we have grass for them until at least mid Nov.. That group we would wean and keep until after the first of the year normally, except one year we had a neighbor that wanted some in the 450 range and we sold in early Oct.. He will pay decent for decent calves, but isn't going to over pay either. I am looking at the cow market and what I can maybe pick up fairly cheap. We just put in a 130 ft bag of pretty decent corn silage, so will have something to feed besides hay.... the calves will make best use of it if we keep them longer that usual.

Our local sale barn is changing hands.. or at least changing management. Owners are in their late 80's and kids in their 60's and they all want to slow down some. We will see how this affects the sales. Talk is the new ones might try to do some graded sales which the old ones never did, even though they had a real good reputation for getting premium prices.... as long as the cattle were black.... graded sales would be of benefit for the char crosses, smokies, and good red calves.

Prices here dropped a good .20 from 2 weeks ago, and the talk is they will drop more. Cull cows seem to be holding, and we have about a half dozen that are old, with calves on them, that just got moved to some decent grass. When that is gone, they will leave, and hope things are about the same. We will see. None of the calves are anything special except one heifer is real nice. But for the very immediate future, we are going to hold awhile now.

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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by skyhightree1 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:08 pm

sstterry wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:16 pm
Feeder calf prices are really tanking here. I have about 15 calves (steers and a few heifers I don't want to keep) I have been weaning and feeding in preparation to take them to the market. Most of these are
5 and 6 wts. With prices this low, and I have heard they are going to go lower, I am toying with the idea of just turning them back out and feeding them through the winter with the rest of the herd.

I have plenty of hay and I can also get more because it is really cheap here right now. With prices like this, I really can see a lot of folks just pitching in the towel and selling out. I just read about two more herd dispersals in our area that are taking place in November.

Does anyone have advice on what to do??
I have tried to beat the market a few times and did not have good results remember this they are a liability while you have them on pasture at your place. When they hit the barn you get a check. During the time you keep them and are hoping for better prices you can really be screwing yourself especially if prices do not rebound all you did was make them nice and fat for the next person while taking it in the shorts. I learned a valuable lesson and dun and I talked about it and if there ready to sell as I normally would no matter the market let them ride. Cattle prices are taking a extreme beating here and there is absolutely no way I would keep them any longer than I have too. My :2cents: stop the bleed get your check and hope for better prices the next load.
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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by skyhightree1 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:10 pm

TCRanch wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:36 pm
I'm weaning mid Oct and will keep my calves at least to the end of Dec but possibly through Jan/Feb. All contingent on whether prices go up and our tax situation. If we need to apply the income this year we'll sell & possibly take a hit. If the market picks up and we sell in Dec but we need the income on next year's taxes we can hold it over. Or we can let them graze the brome and hope the market picks up next year.
SMH
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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by Jeanne - Simme Valley » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:12 pm

They can get sick or die while you wait. I am not in the position to gamble on the market. When animals are ready to go - they go.
the only time I hang onto one, is like right now on my cull cows. I have 5 to ship. I have been using a private market that is paying $1.30/hanging but they can't take 5 at a time. So, shipping 3 next Thursday and having to wait on 2. Hopefully, get rid of them 1-2 weeks later.
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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by skyhightree1 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:02 pm

Jeanne - Simme Valley wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:12 pm
They can get sick or die while you wait. I am not in the position to gamble on the market. When animals are ready to go - they go.
the only time I hang onto one, is like right now on my cull cows. I have 5 to ship. I have been using a private market that is paying $1.30/hanging but they can't take 5 at a time. So, shipping 3 next Thursday and having to wait on 2. Hopefully, get rid of them 1-2 weeks later.
I had a steer 400# get stuck in mud a day I pulled it out fed and hydrated it and it died the next day while trying to beat the market and that's when prices were 2.00lb
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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by Jeanne - Simme Valley » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:26 pm

And, the 2 that will be waiting are guaranteed same price, so I'm not gambling.
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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by shaz » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:34 pm

There is no light at the end of the tunnel. The fundamentals are completely against us. Don't carry them through winter unless you can do it really, really cheap.
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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by skyhightree1 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:15 pm

shaz wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:34 pm
There is no light at the end of the tunnel. The fundamentals are completely against us. Don't carry them through winter unless you can do it really, really cheap.
No matter how cheap there is still a cost associated with keeping them and liability without knowing what the new normal prices will be after it hits bottom is still a losing game.
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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by jltrent » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:29 pm

When they are ready or close ready and I can get a little help to catch/load they are gone. From looking back I have hit a good market a few times and a bad market a few times. The way things are looking I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. Might as well take your beating like a man.

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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by kenny thomas » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:53 pm

jltrent wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:29 pm
When they are ready or close ready and I can get a little help to catch/load they are gone. From looking back I have hit a good market a few times and a bad market a few times. The way things are looking I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. Might as well take your beating like a man.
You have help with hauling just a phone call away. I'm gonna buy lightweight calves till my money runs out.
My thoughts only, don't bet the farm on them. KT

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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by jltrent » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:00 pm

kenny thomas wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:53 pm
jltrent wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:29 pm
When they are ready or close ready and I can get a little help to catch/load they are gone. From looking back I have hit a good market a few times and a bad market a few times. The way things are looking I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. Might as well take your beating like a man.
You have help with hauling just a phone call away. I'm gonna buy lightweight calves till my money runs out.
Thanks, it probably is a good time to buy as they can't get much cheaper, I don't think, and may go up come spring. I have had probably the worse pink eye this years as I have had in a long time. Before I can sell any they are going to have to get better. The PE shots for me didn't work very good it seems.

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Re: Advice on what to do?

Post by kenny thomas » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:07 pm

Didn't gave any pinkeye vaccine, no ear tags, no rubs or sprays. Cinnamon Garlic mineral is all I have done and only had one case this past weekend. Not sure why.
My thoughts only, don't bet the farm on them. KT

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